*

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length


Author Topic: Summertember 2022  (Read 6116 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Thundersnow

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 12,738
  • Location: Nolensville
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 734
Re: Summertember 2022
« Reply #105 on: September 23, 2022, 08:16:20 AM »
Our memories tend to be both selective and generalized. Memories that make an impression tend to become more encompassing than they really were. Growing up, I can remember winters like 1985 and maybe some other significant snowstorms in other years like 1988. My mind all those years later will tend to create a story, "It used to snow a lot more when I was a kid." But, I tend not to think about all the other years in the 1980s when it really didn't snow much. When I lived through some lean years more recently, I compare this to my impression of living through snowstorms... and come away with, "It doesn't snow like it did when I was a kid." But, I don't remember that there were years when it snowed very little even back then. (The data does indeed show declining snowfall patterns, but that's really beside my point of how our memories work.)

Let's say for hypothetical purposes that I lived through three cool Septembers, three years in a row during the mid-1970s. Let's say, just for hypothetical purposes, that I went to the fair in September every year at that time, and it was cool enough to wear a jacket. I would now have a memory, "Back when I was a kid, I had to wear a jacket to the fair when it was in September."

We know 1974-76 were cool during September. But... the data says that 1970, 1971, 1972, and 1973 (four years in a row before that cool stretch in the mid-70s) were WARMER than 2020 and 2021. Considering the hot weather we've seen this month in 2022, three of those 4 years in the EARLY 1970s were actually slightly warmer than what we've seen so far in September 2022...

Just in case Crockett's post needed that extra elaboration/interpretation.
« Last Edit: September 23, 2022, 08:19:09 AM by Thundersnow »

Offline Bruce

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 10,285
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 3544
Re: Summertember 2022
« Reply #106 on: September 23, 2022, 08:23:47 AM »
Our memories tend to be both selective and generalized. Memories that make an impression tend to become more encompassing than they really were. Growing up, I can remember winters like 1985 and maybe some other significant snowstorms in other years like 1988. My mind all those years later will tend to create a story, "It used to snow a lot more when I was a kid." But, I tend not to think about all the other years in the 1980s when it really didn't snow much. When I lived through some lean years more recently, I compare this to my impression of living through snowstorms... and come away with, "It doesn't snow like it did when I was a kid." But, I don't remember that there were years when it snowed very little even back then. (The data does indeed show declining snowfall patterns, but that's really beside my point of how our memories work.)

Let's say for hypothetical purposes that I lived through three cool Septembers, three years in a row during the mid-1970s. Let's say, just for hypothetical purposes, that I went to the fair in September every year at that time, and it was cool enough to wear a jacket. I would now have a memory, "Back when I was a kid, I had to wear a jacket to the fair when it was in September."

We know 1974-76 were cool during September. But... the data says that 1970, 1971, 1972, and 1973 (four years in a row before that cool stretch in the mid-70s) were WARMER than 2020 and 2021. Considering the hot weather we've seen this month in 2022, three of those 4 years in the EARLY 1970s were actually slightly warmer than what we've seen so far in September 2022...

Just in case Crockett's post needed that extra elaboration/interpretation.
good post Nash. But there is no denying climate is warming … hopefully we can move on . But it’s a interesting topic to discuss during a very boring weather pattern we been in last 6 plus months it seems we are in
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline TNHunter

  • Supercell
  • *****
  • Posts: 595
  • Location:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Summertember 2022
« Reply #107 on: September 23, 2022, 10:24:07 AM »
good post Nash. But there is no denying climate is warming … hopefully we can move on . But it’s a interesting topic to discuss during a very boring weather pattern we been in last 6 plus months it seems we are in

Show some data to support this for discussion. Others have just shown based on data how 100years ago we had very warm periods.

Online Crockett

  • He's got the blood of Crockett and Geronimo...
  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,922
  • Location: Oneida, TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 43
Re: Summertember 2022
« Reply #108 on: September 23, 2022, 12:50:13 PM »
It's weird you post this without any stats to back it up. I'm pretty sure the past Septs (pre-2000 back to late 1800s) compared to last 30-40 Septs on the whole in Tennessee are far warmer. The only issue would be if you balanced out UHI forcing and then compared the anomalies.

I'm assuming you missed the post I made above with the data. But what I actually find kinda comical is that Bruce certainly saw the other post, yet "likes" your post even though he's the one making assertions without data to back them up. Kinda weird but okay...Bruce is gonna be Bruce.

Anyway, just for fun I ran temps all the way back to 1900 for Nashville.

Average Temp for September:
1900s = 72.5 (Warmest: 76.5, 1900; Coolest: 69.2, 1902)
1910s = 72.2 (77.5, 1911; 65.4, 1918)
1920s = 73.7 (81.3, 1925; 67.9, 1924)
1930s = 73.8 (77.3, '31 & '39; 70.1, 1937)
1940s = 71.9 (76.2, 1941; 68.2, 1949)
1950s = 72.7 (76.7, 1954; 69.5, 1950)
1960s = 70.9 (74.1, 1965; 69.3, 1962)
1970s = 72.5 (76.9, 1970; 66.8, 1976)
1980s = 71.7 (75.9, 1980; 68.1, 1981)
1990s = 71.9 (77.1, 1998, 69.1, 1994)
2000s = 72.7 (75.8, 2007; 70.1, 2001)
2010s = 73.7 (80.4, 2019; 69.1, 2011)

Average MINIMUM temp for September in Nashville:
1900s: 61.9
1910s: 61.8
1920s: 63.8
1990s: 60.9
2000s: 62.5
2010s: 62.9
30 Year Average, 1900-1929: 62.5
30 Year Average, 1990 - 2019: 62.1

Average # of September Nights - In 50s or cooler/In 40s or cooler
1900s: 9/2.5
1910s: 10/2.0
1920s: 8/1.7
1930s: 8/1.1
1990s: 12/3.0
2000s: 9/1.5
2010s: 10/1.1
30 Year Average, 1900-1929: 9.0/2.0
30 Year Average, 1990-2019: 10.3/1.9

Again I ask: Based on the data, are our Septembers becoming substantially warmer? Clearly, no.

There are plenty of impacts of climate change that can be documented in Tennessee: less snow, for one. More rain, for another. But this isn't one of them. The records speak for themselves.
« Last Edit: September 23, 2022, 12:54:56 PM by Crockett »
Welcome to Tennessee, patron state of shootin' stuff.

www.bengarrett.net

Offline Bruce

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 10,285
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 3544
Re: Summertember 2022
« Reply #109 on: September 23, 2022, 03:26:05 PM »
I'm assuming you missed the post I made above with the data. But what I actually find kinda comical is that Bruce certainly saw the other post, yet "likes" your post even though he's the one making assertions without data to back them up. Kinda weird but okay...Bruce is gonna be Bruce.

Anyway, just for fun I ran temps all the way back to 1900 for Nashville.

Average Temp for September:
1900s = 72.5 (Warmest: 76.5, 1900; Coolest: 69.2, 1902)
1910s = 72.2 (77.5, 1911; 65.4, 1918)
1920s = 73.7 (81.3, 1925; 67.9, 1924)
1930s = 73.8 (77.3, '31 & '39; 70.1, 1937)
1940s = 71.9 (76.2, 1941; 68.2, 1949)
1950s = 72.7 (76.7, 1954; 69.5, 1950)
1960s = 70.9 (74.1, 1965; 69.3, 1962)
1970s = 72.5 (76.9, 1970; 66.8, 1976)
1980s = 71.7 (75.9, 1980; 68.1, 1981)
1990s = 71.9 (77.1, 1998, 69.1, 1994)
2000s = 72.7 (75.8, 2007; 70.1, 2001)
2010s = 73.7 (80.4, 2019; 69.1, 2011)

Average MINIMUM temp for September in Nashville:
1900s: 61.9
1910s: 61.8
1920s: 63.8
1990s: 60.9
2000s: 62.5
2010s: 62.9
30 Year Average, 1900-1929: 62.5
30 Year Average, 1990 - 2019: 62.1

Average # of September Nights - In 50s or cooler/In 40s or cooler
1900s: 9/2.5
1910s: 10/2.0
1920s: 8/1.7
1930s: 8/1.1
1990s: 12/3.0
2000s: 9/1.5
2010s: 10/1.1
30 Year Average, 1900-1929: 9.0/2.0
30 Year Average, 1990-2019: 10.3/1.9

Again I ask: Based on the data, are our Septembers becoming substantially warmer? Clearly, no.

There are plenty of impacts of climate change that can be documented in Tennessee: less snow, for one. More rain, for another. But this isn't one of them. The records speak for themselves.
guess you also think December not warmer than past either  lol
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Online Crockett

  • He's got the blood of Crockett and Geronimo...
  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,922
  • Location: Oneida, TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 43
Re: Summertember 2022
« Reply #110 on: September 23, 2022, 03:27:10 PM »
guess you also think December not warmer than past either  lol

earth also flat you ask me lol
Welcome to Tennessee, patron state of shootin' stuff.

www.bengarrett.net

Offline Curt

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 9,107
  • Location: Arlington, TN(Memphis suburb)
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Summertember 2022
« Reply #111 on: September 23, 2022, 05:26:28 PM »
Worth noting that despite KMEM record high temp this week, and latest 100-degree day on record of 102, the month is 2.9 above- nowhere close to 2010. BN temps next week should bring the average down to 2.0 above.

Offline Thundersnow

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 12,738
  • Location: Nolensville
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 734
Re: Summertember 2022
« Reply #112 on: September 23, 2022, 06:49:48 PM »

Offline Matthew

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,315
  • Location: Smryna, TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1569
Re: Summertember 2022
« Reply #113 on: September 23, 2022, 08:20:45 PM »
guess you also think December not warmer than past either  lol

Bruce thinking & actual reality are two very different things.
The data he presented is clear.  It would not surprise me the opposite is said for individuals living in FL.  They may think it’s been cooler than normal.  Maybe in AZ they may think it’s wetter than normal.  Bottom line is data supports the temps are close to average no matter what we think or feel.  Was last year a snowy year for here? For many it was & the totals support it even though some may feel it was not snowy.   

Offline schneitzeit

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,318
  • Location: Williamson County
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2936
Re: Summertember 2022
« Reply #114 on: September 23, 2022, 11:35:18 PM »
see several people here making fun me.....  fine. but dont forget who been right w svr outbreaks in past..... often much more than any u..... trash me for my memory ok whatever..... i just state facts bro..... back then was cooler. deal with it. U dont like it.... dont read my posts.... simple as that

Offline Bruce

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 10,285
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 3544
Re: Summertember 2022
« Reply #115 on: September 24, 2022, 08:16:59 PM »
Tornado warning for ne Arkansas miss county  lol o well
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline InMemphis

  • Severe Thunderstorm
  • ****
  • Posts: 254
  • Location: Germantown, Tennessee
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 13
Re: Summertember 2022
« Reply #116 on: September 24, 2022, 08:50:21 PM »
A Severe Thunderstorm Warning is in effect for Northeastern Shelby County.

Offline byrdymush

  • Sunny
  • *
  • Posts: 32
  • Location: Atoka, TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: Summertember 2022
« Reply #117 on: September 25, 2022, 09:50:22 AM »
A Severe Thunderstorm Warning is in effect for Northeastern Shelby County.
Downtown Covington TN got hit with some pretty wicked straight-line winds last night. Festival vendor setups destroyed, lots of trees down, power outages all over Tipton County (including Munford and Atoka, mostly restored by STEMC).

Right around 9/9:15pm on 9/24 if anyone wants to check out the archives.

Offline InMemphis

  • Severe Thunderstorm
  • ****
  • Posts: 254
  • Location: Germantown, Tennessee
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 13
Re: Summertember 2022
« Reply #118 on: September 25, 2022, 02:42:16 PM »
I've noticed quite a few tree limbs down today. Last night's storms definitely packed an unexpected punch.
« Last Edit: September 25, 2022, 03:19:51 PM by InMemphis »

Offline StormNine

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 6,081
  • Location: Hopkinsville KY/ Bowling Green KY
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 258
Re: Summertember 2022
« Reply #119 on: September 25, 2022, 05:32:58 PM »
After a perfect fall week for this upcoming week, it looks like West and Middle TN will torch the first 7-10 days of October probably a few 90s or at least upper 80s west of the Cumberland Plateau.  Especially with that -PNA dip.   

 

*

October 2022
by Bruce
[Today at 03:51:42 AM]
Hurricane Ian
by jwr2914
[Yesterday at 10:22:48 PM]
Summertember 2022
by gcbama
[Yesterday at 06:52:18 PM]
Winter 2022-2023
by bugalou
[September 24, 2022, 12:47:22 PM]
2022 Tropical Season
by BeetleChe13
[September 23, 2022, 10:18:02 PM]