Summertember 2022

[Nash_LSU]

Just walked outside for lunch.

[TNHunter]

Bruce will always do Bruce things.  Some people fail to look at data.

[Bruce]

Bruce will always do Bruce things.  Some people fail to look at data.

you being a big game hunter , sure you can remember when you could go bow hunting deer season without mosquitoes eating you up, like the bow season of recent falls …

[Crockett]

you being a big game hunter , sure you can remember when you could go bow hunting deer season without mosquitoes eating you up, like the bow season of recent falls …

I hunt and I can promise you that mosquitoes have always been an issue for bow hunters in late September and most of October.

[Crockett]

I was going to post against what Bruce was saying because to me this September feels normal definitely warm at times but I thought we was doing pretty good but looking back at 2009-2014 Septembers we had a few warm 90 days but also some days with highs in the 60's for Nashville. Then looked at this month and yeah we have been really warm. Maybe the low's are lower? making the average seem normal but the high's are definitely above where we should be.

I don't think anyone would disagree that this has been a warm September. The question is are Septembers (and early autumns in general) substantially warmer on the whole now than they were 40-50 years ago. Clearly, the answer is no.

[StormNine]

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I was actually a bit surprised to see that in our general area in the past 15 or so years has only been around 1 degree warmer than the base 1895-2000 timeperiod for the month of September.  Especially, considering some of the very warm Septembers like 2010, 2018, and 2019.   

This September minus the 3 historically hot days we just had hasn't been that bad.  Most areas will finish in the +1 to +2 range for the month, which is nothing compared to the +5 and +6 departures that we have thrown up in the past 10-12 years.   

[stayrose38]

I don't think anyone would disagree that this has been a warm September. The question is are Septembers (and early autumns in general) substantially warmer on the whole now than they were 40-50 years ago. Clearly, the answer is no.

It's weird you post this without any stats to back it up. I'm pretty sure the past Septs (pre-2000 back to late 1800s) compared to last 30-40 Septs on the whole in Tennessee are far warmer. The only issue would be if you balanced out UHI forcing and then compared the anomalies. 

[StormNine]

It's weird you post this without any stats to back it up. I'm pretty sure the past Septs (pre-2000 back to late 1800s) compared to last 30-40 Septs on the whole in Tennessee are far warmer. The only issue would be if you balanced out UHI forcing and then compared the anomalies.

UHI forcing would make an impact for sure and for KY/TN may even bring us back to average, but it doesn't explain why Montana/North Dakota/Idaho and other rural areas have warmed up a bit in the past 15-20 years during the month of September.  There are some climate blocks out that way that barely have a town in them.     

[StormNine]

I will say this there is no denying that December has warmed up a bunch in the past 15 years.  We have had at least 4 maybe 5/top 20 warmest Decembers on record since 2007.

The climate plot shows around a +3 to +4 departure from average in our area the past 17 years for that month, which is our most extreme month of the year. 

[Thundersnow]

It's weird you post this without any stats to back it up.

He did provide stats comparing the most recent years with the 1970s... a few posts back up:

Memory fades, my friend.

Average low temps for month of September in Nashville:
1970: 65.9 (nights in 50s or below: 7/40s or below: 1)
1971: 64.6 (6/0)
1972: 66.0 (3/1)
1973: 66.3 (5/1)
1974: 58.4 (17/3)
1975: 59.5 (16/4)
1976: 56.4 (21/4)
1977: 64.8 (6/0)
1978: 65.0 (5/0)
1979: 60.9 (14/0)
2020: 62.7 (9/1)
2021: 62.4 (11/1)
2022: 65.0 (3/0)

Granted- it's really too small a sample size to make any meaningful conclusions comparing a few years now with a few years 40-50 years ago. A trendline spanning 100+ years would probably be more telling. But, a trend would have to be smoothed out of some outliers and some degree of standard deviation. But, I think the point was to compare the most recent years with a set of years 40-50 years ago... and really, I might add, how some anomalously cool Septembers in the mid-1970s might bias the memories of people who remember those years, even though the years before and just after that were right in line with the most recent years.

[Thundersnow]

Our memories tend to be both selective and generalized. Memories that make an impression tend to become more encompassing than they really were. Growing up, I can remember winters like 1985 and maybe some other significant snowstorms in other years like 1988. My mind all those years later will tend to create a story, "It used to snow a lot more when I was a kid." But, I tend not to think about all the other years in the 1980s when it really didn't snow much. When I lived through some lean years more recently, I compare this to my impression of living through snowstorms... and come away with, "It doesn't snow like it did when I was a kid." But, I don't remember that there were years when it snowed very little even back then. (The data does indeed show declining snowfall patterns, but that's really beside my point of how our memories work.)

Let's say for hypothetical purposes that I lived through three cool Septembers, three years in a row during the mid-1970s. Let's say, just for hypothetical purposes, that I went to the fair in September every year at that time, and it was cool enough to wear a jacket. I would now have a memory, "Back when I was a kid, I had to wear a jacket to the fair when it was in September."

We know 1974-76 were cool during September. But... the data says that 1970, 1971, 1972, and 1973 (four years in a row before that cool stretch in the mid-70s) were WARMER than 2020 and 2021. Considering the hot weather we've seen this month in 2022, three of those 4 years in the EARLY 1970s were actually slightly warmer than what we've seen so far in September 2022...

Just in case Crockett's post needed that extra elaboration/interpretation.

[Bruce]

Our memories tend to be both selective and generalized. Memories that make an impression tend to become more encompassing than they really were. Growing up, I can remember winters like 1985 and maybe some other significant snowstorms in other years like 1988. My mind all those years later will tend to create a story, "It used to snow a lot more when I was a kid." But, I tend not to think about all the other years in the 1980s when it really didn't snow much. When I lived through some lean years more recently, I compare this to my impression of living through snowstorms... and come away with, "It doesn't snow like it did when I was a kid." But, I don't remember that there were years when it snowed very little even back then. (The data does indeed show declining snowfall patterns, but that's really beside my point of how our memories work.)

Let's say for hypothetical purposes that I lived through three cool Septembers, three years in a row during the mid-1970s. Let's say, just for hypothetical purposes, that I went to the fair in September every year at that time, and it was cool enough to wear a jacket. I would now have a memory, "Back when I was a kid, I had to wear a jacket to the fair when it was in September."

We know 1974-76 were cool during September. But... the data says that 1970, 1971, 1972, and 1973 (four years in a row before that cool stretch in the mid-70s) were WARMER than 2020 and 2021. Considering the hot weather we've seen this month in 2022, three of those 4 years in the EARLY 1970s were actually slightly warmer than what we've seen so far in September 2022...

Just in case Crockett's post needed that extra elaboration/interpretation.

good post Nash. But there is no denying climate is warming … hopefully we can move on . But it’s a interesting topic to discuss during a very boring weather pattern we been in last 6 plus months it seems we are in

[TNHunter]

good post Nash. But there is no denying climate is warming … hopefully we can move on . But it’s a interesting topic to discuss during a very boring weather pattern we been in last 6 plus months it seems we are in

Show some data to support this for discussion. Others have just shown based on data how 100years ago we had very warm periods.

[Crockett]

It's weird you post this without any stats to back it up. I'm pretty sure the past Septs (pre-2000 back to late 1800s) compared to last 30-40 Septs on the whole in Tennessee are far warmer. The only issue would be if you balanced out UHI forcing and then compared the anomalies.

I'm assuming you missed the post I made above with the data. But what I actually find kinda comical is that Bruce certainly saw the other post, yet "likes" your post even though he's the one making assertions without data to back them up. Kinda weird but okay...Bruce is gonna be Bruce.

Anyway, just for fun I ran temps all the way back to 1900 for Nashville.

Average Temp for September:
1900s = 72.5 (Warmest: 76.5, 1900; Coolest: 69.2, 1902)
1910s = 72.2 (77.5, 1911; 65.4, 1918)
1920s = 73.7 (81.3, 1925; 67.9, 1924)
1930s = 73.8 (77.3, '31 & '39; 70.1, 1937)
1940s = 71.9 (76.2, 1941; 68.2, 1949)
1950s = 72.7 (76.7, 1954; 69.5, 1950)
1960s = 70.9 (74.1, 1965; 69.3, 1962)
1970s = 72.5 (76.9, 1970; 66.8, 1976)
1980s = 71.7 (75.9, 1980; 68.1, 1981)
1990s = 71.9 (77.1, 1998, 69.1, 1994)
2000s = 72.7 (75.8, 2007; 70.1, 2001)
2010s = 73.7 (80.4, 2019; 69.1, 2011)

Average MINIMUM temp for September in Nashville:
1900s: 61.9
1910s: 61.8
1920s: 63.8
1990s: 60.9
2000s: 62.5
2010s: 62.9
30 Year Average, 1900-1929: 62.5
30 Year Average, 1990 - 2019: 62.1

Average # of September Nights - In 50s or cooler/In 40s or cooler
1900s: 9/2.5
1910s: 10/2.0
1920s: 8/1.7
1930s: 8/1.1
1990s: 12/3.0
2000s: 9/1.5
2010s: 10/1.1
30 Year Average, 1900-1929: 9.0/2.0
30 Year Average, 1990-2019: 10.3/1.9

Again I ask: Based on the data, are our Septembers becoming substantially warmer? Clearly, no.

There are plenty of impacts of climate change that can be documented in Tennessee: less snow, for one. More rain, for another. But this isn't one of them. The records speak for themselves.

[Bruce]

I'm assuming you missed the post I made above with the data. But what I actually find kinda comical is that Bruce certainly saw the other post, yet "likes" your post even though he's the one making assertions without data to back them up. Kinda weird but okay...Bruce is gonna be Bruce.

Anyway, just for fun I ran temps all the way back to 1900 for Nashville.

Average Temp for September:
1900s = 72.5 (Warmest: 76.5, 1900; Coolest: 69.2, 1902)
1910s = 72.2 (77.5, 1911; 65.4, 1918)
1920s = 73.7 (81.3, 1925; 67.9, 1924)
1930s = 73.8 (77.3, '31 & '39; 70.1, 1937)
1940s = 71.9 (76.2, 1941; 68.2, 1949)
1950s = 72.7 (76.7, 1954; 69.5, 1950)
1960s = 70.9 (74.1, 1965; 69.3, 1962)
1970s = 72.5 (76.9, 1970; 66.8, 1976)
1980s = 71.7 (75.9, 1980; 68.1, 1981)
1990s = 71.9 (77.1, 1998, 69.1, 1994)
2000s = 72.7 (75.8, 2007; 70.1, 2001)
2010s = 73.7 (80.4, 2019; 69.1, 2011)

Average MINIMUM temp for September in Nashville:
1900s: 61.9
1910s: 61.8
1920s: 63.8
1990s: 60.9
2000s: 62.5
2010s: 62.9
30 Year Average, 1900-1929: 62.5
30 Year Average, 1990 - 2019: 62.1

Average # of September Nights - In 50s or cooler/In 40s or cooler
1900s: 9/2.5
1910s: 10/2.0
1920s: 8/1.7
1930s: 8/1.1
1990s: 12/3.0
2000s: 9/1.5
2010s: 10/1.1
30 Year Average, 1900-1929: 9.0/2.0
30 Year Average, 1990-2019: 10.3/1.9

Again I ask: Based on the data, are our Septembers becoming substantially warmer? Clearly, no.

There are plenty of impacts of climate change that can be documented in Tennessee: less snow, for one. More rain, for another. But this isn't one of them. The records speak for themselves.

guess you also think December not warmer than past either  lol