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Author Topic: Summertember 2022  (Read 6312 times)

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Offline Bruce

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Re: Summertember 2022
« Reply #90 on: September 22, 2022, 11:41:35 AM »
1974-1976 were all anomalously cool early autumns. But all the other years in the '70s were almost identical to the weather we've had thus far this September. Data doesn't lie.
my memory doesn’t either …
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Summertember 2022
« Reply #91 on: September 22, 2022, 11:57:00 AM »
my memory doesn’t either …

Perhaps, you are remembering those anomalously cool early autumns (1974-1976) that Crockett cited.

Offline Crockett

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Re: Summertember 2022
« Reply #92 on: September 22, 2022, 11:58:08 AM »
my memory doesn’t either …

Memory fades, my friend.

Average low temps for month of September in Nashville:
1970: 65.9 (nights in 50s or below: 7/40s or below: 1)
1971: 64.6 (6/0)
1972: 66.0 (3/1)
1973: 66.3 (5/1)
1974: 58.4 (17/3)
1975: 59.5 (16/4)
1976: 56.4 (21/4)

1977: 64.8 (6/0)
1978: 65.0 (5/0)
1979: 60.9 (14/0)
2020: 62.7 (9/1)
2021: 62.4 (11/1)
2022: 65.0 (3/0)
Welcome to Tennessee, patron state of shootin' stuff.

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Offline Bruce

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Re: Summertember 2022
« Reply #93 on: September 22, 2022, 12:21:00 PM »
Memory fades, my friend.

Average low temps for month of September in Nashville:
1970: 65.9 (nights in 50s or below: 7/40s or below: 1)
1971: 64.6 (6/0)
1972: 66.0 (3/1)
1973: 66.3 (5/1)
1974: 58.4 (17/3)
1975: 59.5 (16/4)
1976: 56.4 (21/4)

1977: 64.8 (6/0)
1978: 65.0 (5/0)
1979: 60.9 (14/0)
2020: 62.7 (9/1)
2021: 62.4 (11/1)
2022: 65.0 (3/0)
well mine hasn’t just yet .  There is a difference from early falls to the recent fall weather of today . Just like winter season .
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Nash_LSU

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Re: Summertember 2022
« Reply #94 on: September 22, 2022, 12:23:02 PM »
Just walked outside for lunch.


Offline Cody029

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Re: Summertember 2022
« Reply #95 on: September 22, 2022, 12:28:10 PM »
I was going to post against what Bruce was saying because to me this September feels normal definitely warm at times but I thought we was doing pretty good but looking back at 2009-2014 Septembers we had a few warm 90 days but also some days with highs in the 60's for Nashville. Then looked at this month and yeah we have been really warm. Maybe the low's are lower? making the average seem normal but the high's are definitely above where we should be.

Offline TNHunter

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Re: Summertember 2022
« Reply #96 on: September 22, 2022, 01:27:37 PM »
Bruce will always do Bruce things.  Some people fail to look at data.

Offline Bruce

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Re: Summertember 2022
« Reply #97 on: September 22, 2022, 01:36:53 PM »
Bruce will always do Bruce things.  Some people fail to look at data.
you being a big game hunter , sure you can remember when you could go bow hunting deer season without mosquitoes eating you up, like the bow season of recent falls …
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Crockett

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Re: Summertember 2022
« Reply #98 on: September 22, 2022, 04:11:15 PM »
you being a big game hunter , sure you can remember when you could go bow hunting deer season without mosquitoes eating you up, like the bow season of recent falls …

I hunt and I can promise you that mosquitoes have always been an issue for bow hunters in late September and most of October.
Welcome to Tennessee, patron state of shootin' stuff.

www.bengarrett.net

Offline Crockett

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Re: Summertember 2022
« Reply #99 on: September 22, 2022, 04:12:22 PM »
I was going to post against what Bruce was saying because to me this September feels normal definitely warm at times but I thought we was doing pretty good but looking back at 2009-2014 Septembers we had a few warm 90 days but also some days with highs in the 60's for Nashville. Then looked at this month and yeah we have been really warm. Maybe the low's are lower? making the average seem normal but the high's are definitely above where we should be.

I don't think anyone would disagree that this has been a warm September. The question is are Septembers (and early autumns in general) substantially warmer on the whole now than they were 40-50 years ago. Clearly, the answer is no.
Welcome to Tennessee, patron state of shootin' stuff.

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Offline StormNine

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Re: Summertember 2022
« Reply #100 on: September 22, 2022, 06:00:33 PM »
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I was actually a bit surprised to see that in our general area in the past 15 or so years has only been around 1 degree warmer than the base 1895-2000 timeperiod for the month of September.  Especially, considering some of the very warm Septembers like 2010, 2018, and 2019.   

This September minus the 3 historically hot days we just had hasn't been that bad.  Most areas will finish in the +1 to +2 range for the month, which is nothing compared to the +5 and +6 departures that we have thrown up in the past 10-12 years.   

Offline stayrose38

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Re: Summertember 2022
« Reply #101 on: September 23, 2022, 03:34:34 AM »
I don't think anyone would disagree that this has been a warm September. The question is are Septembers (and early autumns in general) substantially warmer on the whole now than they were 40-50 years ago. Clearly, the answer is no.

It's weird you post this without any stats to back it up. I'm pretty sure the past Septs (pre-2000 back to late 1800s) compared to last 30-40 Septs on the whole in Tennessee are far warmer. The only issue would be if you balanced out UHI forcing and then compared the anomalies. 

Offline StormNine

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Re: Summertember 2022
« Reply #102 on: September 23, 2022, 04:18:22 AM »
It's weird you post this without any stats to back it up. I'm pretty sure the past Septs (pre-2000 back to late 1800s) compared to last 30-40 Septs on the whole in Tennessee are far warmer. The only issue would be if you balanced out UHI forcing and then compared the anomalies.

UHI forcing would make an impact for sure and for KY/TN may even bring us back to average, but it doesn't explain why Montana/North Dakota/Idaho and other rural areas have warmed up a bit in the past 15-20 years during the month of September.  There are some climate blocks out that way that barely have a town in them.     

Offline StormNine

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Re: Summertember 2022
« Reply #103 on: September 23, 2022, 04:30:00 AM »
I will say this there is no denying that December has warmed up a bunch in the past 15 years.  We have had at least 4 maybe 5/top 20 warmest Decembers on record since 2007.

The climate plot shows around a +3 to +4 departure from average in our area the past 17 years for that month, which is our most extreme month of the year. 

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Summertember 2022
« Reply #104 on: September 23, 2022, 07:51:52 AM »
It's weird you post this without any stats to back it up.

He did provide stats comparing the most recent years with the 1970s... a few posts back up:

Memory fades, my friend.

Average low temps for month of September in Nashville:
1970: 65.9 (nights in 50s or below: 7/40s or below: 1)
1971: 64.6 (6/0)
1972: 66.0 (3/1)
1973: 66.3 (5/1)
1974: 58.4 (17/3)
1975: 59.5 (16/4)
1976: 56.4 (21/4)

1977: 64.8 (6/0)
1978: 65.0 (5/0)
1979: 60.9 (14/0)
2020: 62.7 (9/1)
2021: 62.4 (11/1)
2022: 65.0 (3/0)

Granted- it's really too small a sample size to make any meaningful conclusions comparing a few years now with a few years 40-50 years ago. A trendline spanning 100+ years would probably be more telling. But, a trend would have to be smoothed out of some outliers and some degree of standard deviation. But, I think the point was to compare the most recent years with a set of years 40-50 years ago... and really, I might add, how some anomalously cool Septembers in the mid-1970s might bias the memories of people who remember those years, even though the years before and just after that were right in line with the most recent years.
« Last Edit: September 23, 2022, 07:57:27 AM by Thundersnow »

 

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