Summertember 2022

[StormNine]

We have 100F in the forecast for both Paducah and Memphis for Wednesday.  If this verifies it will be the latest 100-degree reading for both locations.   

The saving grace is that the worst of this heat wave will only last 3 or so days before we cool off to just slightly above average temperatures versus record temperatures.   

[StormNine]

One thing that I noticed as well on both long-range Euro/GFS model runs is that there really isn't any cold air on the North American side of the arctic. 

The pole itself and down into Siberia has it all.  That potentially can help us out later on down the line, but until that switches we will likely take turns down in Canada and the Lower 48 bouncing from average conditions to record heat.   

[Curt]

Outside of a gross Tuesday and Wednesday, I’m buying what the Euro is selling after.

[Curt]

Looks like the euro will cool things down significantly on Thursday into the weekend followed by a brief warm up. After that,  control run shows a significant cooldown into the end if the month. That sounds about normal. Hopefully the 90’s are gone this week.

Also worth noting that snow is showing up in the lower 48 by month’s end in the northern Rockies which is right on time.

[TNHunter]

Looks like the euro will cool things down significantly on Thursday into the weekend followed by a brief warm up. After that,  control run shows a significant cooldown into the end if the month. That sounds about normal. Hopefully the 90’s are gone this week.

Also worth noting that snow is showing up in the lower 48 by month’s end in the northern Rockies which is right on time.

I can’t wait for that first morning in the 40s.  I’m looking at the 90s this week as a last chance to enjoy the pool. It’ll be a cold nasty cloudy March and we’ll be wishing for 90s some day. Gonna make the most of it since that’s what we are dealt this week.

[schneitzeit]

Probably should move to the mountains or north someday I would be much happier lol

Give it a whirl. I moved north last year. We'll get our first snowfall in 6 weeks.

[StormNine]

Longer range models have warmed October up quite a bit especially to our west supporting that we fall quickly into winter by 2nd half of October/November line of thought that we saw in 2007, 2010, 2018, 2019, and even 1980 to a degree.

Instead of around average or even below average, I'm thinking we probably end up in the +1 to perhaps +3 range for October with areas from Northwest Wisconsin to Colorado probably in the +4 to +7 range.   

[Dyersburg Weather]

GFS has upper 40s for lows the first part of next week and upper 30s in the long range. Even if it dont happen sure is good to see.

[Coach B]

Yes, the next couple of afternoons look pretty hot. But so far I think September has been fantastic. I've had 11 mornings get down into the 50s and the warm/dry afternoons have been great.

[Bruce]

GFS has upper 40s for lows the first part of next week and upper 30s in the long range. Even if it dont happen sure is good to see.

gfs:  don’t worry it won’t

[snowdog]

Looks like the euro will cool things down significantly on Thursday into the weekend followed by a brief warm up. After that,  control run shows a significant cooldown into the end if the month. That sounds about normal. Hopefully the 90’s are gone this week.

[Curt]

Memphis looks to be going to a second record high today around 100 set in 2010. (It tied 98 yesterday also from 2010.)Perhaps tomorrow as well before the cool off. The heat of this week is remarkable to Sept 2010 in so many ways. It ended up +4 above normal although so far this year we are only +2. SST are really close to each other.

How did fall and winter play out back then? October 2010 was normal statewide and had several frosts and the first freeze around Halloween. November 2010 was slightly above normal with more freezes. Dec 2010/ Jan2011/Feb 2011 were all well below normal. Winter flipped back to Spring in Mid Feb.

[Curt]

KMEM at 99. Almost certain to hit 100 and possibly go higher.

[StormNine]

2007 and 2010 are the years that quickly come to mind with this pattern.  Not quite as sustained as 2016, 2018, or 2019 were but when we do heat up we heat up. 

It would not shock me a bit if areas like the Dakota/Nebraska/Iowa/and adjacent parts of Minnesota have a record hot October.   

[dwagner88]

I did a long run at 5 PM in Knoxville yesterday. While it was definitely hot (92 when I started), the humidity really isn't bad at all. I've been more miserable on humid August mornings with temps in the low 80's.