Long Range Discussion: Fall 2022

[StormNine]

Only started so that it can be started before someone else starts the winter thread and we don't upset the balance anymore.

Does anybody have any fall plans?
Do we think the summer pattern will continue into the first half of fall?
Longrange trends?

La-Nina may influence this fall but its influence could potentially wane as we transition from fall to winter.   

[cgauxknox]

Excellent decision to start the thread! As long as we get a fall season I'll enjoy it. The years where we go straight from hot to winter are tough to take.

[StormNine]

I do hope we get a legit fall. 

Analog data is all over the place although it does lean for September to be a bit warmer than average, which makes sense considering the ridge will be a factor and it leans a bit on the cool side for November. 

Overall it looks like a legit toss-up once we start making dents in the ridge.  Any tropical system in either the Atlantic, Indian, or Pacific side of things could have an impact for better or for worse as well.   

[StormNine]

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Here is my outlook for fall which will probably feature some weird -ENSO/+PNA/-PDO/Residual Ridge kinda thing.  If I had to guess, I would say that September will likely be above average with increased potential for the Halloween to Thanksgiving period to be below average for our area. 

[Bruce]

(Attachment Link)

Here is my outlook for fall which will probably feature some weird -ENSO/+PNA/-PDO/Residual Ridge kinda thing.  If I had to guess, I would say that September will likely be above average with increased potential for the Halloween to Thanksgiving period to be below average for our area.

look for increased severe weather chances from late
November into first year …. As the jet stream starts come back south