2022 Tropical Season

[cgauxknox]

It may be April, but Colorado State has released an above normal prediction for 2022: https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html

[BeetleChe13]

Many others are forecasting an above average season as well. We already have warmer than normal sea surface temps and are in a La Nina pattern like last year.

[cgauxknox]

An interesting report from NOAA: https://apnews.com/article/climate-storms-science-air-pollution-united-states-a629da4d72fa94d75f6668acd5a04bf3

[dwagner88]

The GFS would like to skip early season tropical storms and go directly to eastern GOM hurricanes. It’s been showing up for a couple of days now.

[Cody029]

The GFS would like to skip early season tropical storms and go directly to eastern GOM hurricanes. It’s been showing up for a couple of days now.

Yeah 1 run had it go straight north then it had it go more towards the Carolinas now its been several runs with it hitting Florida.

[wfrogge]

fairly common for the GFS to show canes in the gulf this far out. Always needs to be watched but I have seen this show before

[cgauxknox]

We've now got Invest 90L in the Gulf, just south of the FL panhandle/AL. NOAA has it with less than a 40% chance of development, but it is the first organized system this season.

[dwagner88]

First good rain since the start of April! Over 2" in the bucket from 90L as it swings overhead.

[cgauxknox]

It looks like we have a good chance of Hurricane Agatha crossing into the Gulf and turning into a TD or TS Alex by the end of the week. Right now there seems to be too much shear to develop into much of a threat, so it will mostly be a rain-maker. It is something to track with the first day or hurricane season tomorrow.

[cgauxknox]

We should see our first tropical storm of the season tomorrow and FL has TS watches coming out.

[Beth]

We should see our first tropical storm of the season tomorrow and FL has TS watches coming out.

I am glad it is heading up the East coast. Leaving tomorrow night to head to Clearwater Beach.  So ready to have a relaxing time! 😎😎😎

[cgauxknox]

I am glad it is heading up the East coast. Leaving tomorrow night to head to Clearwater Beach.  So ready to have a relaxing time! 😎😎😎

You should be free and clear for a great trip - enjoy!

[Cody029]

Past few days the GFS has been hinting at a system in the Gulf around June 20th. Something to watch as thats also what seems to be what gives us a break from the ridge for a little after next weeks torch. If ridge holds it could push the storm towards Texas/Mexico or curve it to Florida. But if the ridge breaks/weakens earlier it could allow the storm to push deeper into the Gulf and being a decent storm.