2022 Tropical Season

[cgauxknox]

It may be April, but Colorado State has released an above normal prediction for 2022: https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html

[BeetleChe13]

Many others are forecasting an above average season as well. We already have warmer than normal sea surface temps and are in a La Nina pattern like last year.

[cgauxknox]

An interesting report from NOAA: https://apnews.com/article/climate-storms-science-air-pollution-united-states-a629da4d72fa94d75f6668acd5a04bf3

[dwagner88]

The GFS would like to skip early season tropical storms and go directly to eastern GOM hurricanes. It’s been showing up for a couple of days now.

[wfrogge]

fairly common for the GFS to show canes in the gulf this far out. Always needs to be watched but I have seen this show before

[cgauxknox]

We've now got Invest 90L in the Gulf, just south of the FL panhandle/AL. NOAA has it with less than a 40% chance of development, but it is the first organized system this season.

[dwagner88]

First good rain since the start of April! Over 2" in the bucket from 90L as it swings overhead.

[cgauxknox]

It looks like we have a good chance of Hurricane Agatha crossing into the Gulf and turning into a TD or TS Alex by the end of the week. Right now there seems to be too much shear to develop into much of a threat, so it will mostly be a rain-maker. It is something to track with the first day or hurricane season tomorrow.

[cgauxknox]

We should see our first tropical storm of the season tomorrow and FL has TS watches coming out.

[Beth]

We should see our first tropical storm of the season tomorrow and FL has TS watches coming out.

I am glad it is heading up the East coast. Leaving tomorrow night to head to Clearwater Beach.  So ready to have a relaxing time! 😎😎😎

[cgauxknox]

I am glad it is heading up the East coast. Leaving tomorrow night to head to Clearwater Beach.  So ready to have a relaxing time! 😎😎😎

You should be free and clear for a great trip - enjoy!

[cgauxknox]

TS Fiona may be worth watching. The track right now looks like it could either swing out to sea or make a landfall on the southeast coast. It's way too early to even give odds on a landfall, but it will likely be a strengthening storm next week.

[Bruce]

TS Fiona may be worth watching. The track right now looks like it could either swing out to sea or make a landfall on the southeast coast. It's way too early to even give odds on a landfall, but it will likely be a strengthening storm next week.

she stays a fish …. Ots

[Curt]

Looks like a Cat 3 lurking in the central gulf in about 9 days. Could be an active October coming up.

[cgauxknox]

Looks like a Cat 3 lurking in the central gulf in about 9 days. Could be an active October coming up.

I hope you're wrong, but that system definitely looks to charge into the Gulf and strengthen. Many of the forecasters have been saying for months that this would be a back-loaded season. I continue to pull for drought-busting rain makers that won't carry a lot of damage. Depending on intensity and track hurricanes this season could be a good thing for many.