April 2022

[StormNine]

The Southern Plains looks to get quite active this week, especially Central Oklahoma.  Depending on timing features it is possible the Mid-South may get into play for at least an isolated threat on Tuesday and Thursday.

[Bruce]

The Southern Plains looks to get quite active this week, especially Central Oklahoma.  Depending on timing features it is possible the Mid-South may get into play for at least an isolated threat on Tuesday and Thursday.

yeah I got my eye on later next week ….

[StormNine]

Larry Cosgrove and Reed Timmer both think that these next 2-3 weeks are going to be very active from the Central/Southern Plains over to the East Coast before the Sonora Ridge crashes the party sometime mid-month.   

[StormNine]

May 1999 and 2007 appear as leading analogs with the former being active for both of our area and of course the plains and 2007 being very active for the plains. 

[gcbama]

Larry Cosgrove and Reed Timmer both think that these next 2-3 weeks are going to be very active from the Central/Southern Plains over to the East Coast before the Sonora Ridge crashes the party sometime mid-month.

In all fairness though calling for an active severe weather season in the plains in may is not exactly going out on a limb

[Bruce]

In all fairness though calling for an active severe weather season in the plains in may is not exactly going out on a limb

looks very active indeed even for us … perhaps May 2003 pattern ?

[Dyersburg Weather]

Timmer  is excited.

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[dwagner88]

Need some rain here. This is probably the first time since 2016 that things have gotten genuinely dry around here. April 15 was the last time we had any appreciable rainfall.

[Cody029]

Need some rain here. This is probably the first time since 2016 that things have gotten genuinely dry around here. April 15 was the last time we had any appreciable rainfall.

I got lucky last night from the rain as it almost missed me but yeah generally we have been pretty dry for spring here but not crazy dry yet. It does look somewhat hopeful the next 2 weeks for some rain especially west of here so hopefully that transfers over before the dryness of summer set in. I think also the issue here locally is I have been used to the past few springs wetness that it makes it seem far dryer then it really is here.

[Bruce]

Timmer  is excited.

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bout long over due … time will tell guess

[StormNine]

For us locally the following timeframes seem to show the most promise for potential severe weather:

- Thursday Night/Friday
- Early Next Week 

Depending on MCS and boundary set-ups there is a chance this Tuesday as well but I tend to think that one may be more of a typical summertime pulse/multicell setup versus a more widespread/significant event.   

[StormNine]

bout long over due … time will tell guess

For a May major tornado/severe weather threat, yes, but for our area in general the 2018-present pattern (minus this spring) has been quite active.  Most of our major population centers in West, Middle, and SE TN have been impacted by an EF-2+ tornado or nearly impacted by one at least at somepoint since Feb 2018.

Clarksville (Feb 2018)
Memphis (NW MS on Jan 2020)
Murfressboro (Nov 2018)
Nashville (Mar 2020 and again nearby on Dec 2021)
Chattanogga (Apr 2020)

Even the Jackson area had some weaker tornadoes this past March. There are not that many 4 year timeframes where all of that occurred.  1993-1996 and  2008-2012 are the only ones I can think of. 

We should probably start a May thread and move this there since we are in May.