*

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length


Author Topic: February 2022  (Read 25272 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Matthew

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,236
  • Location: Smryna, TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1514
Re: February 2022
« Reply #15 on: January 27, 2022, 04:55:32 PM »
12z Euro is an I44 gig. Nothing here but rain, followed by cold. And no storms after that either. Overall its a fairly cold pattern for Feb so wouldn't be surprised if we can eek out something at some point.

We know how this song ends.  Amazing from a lucky pattern to a plenty of cold for snow pattern.  Just happens the faucet shut off.

Offline Clarksville Snowman

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,830
  • Location: Woodlawn
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 3194
Re: February 2022
« Reply #16 on: January 27, 2022, 05:23:13 PM »
18z was primed to give us the goods at 160 and somehow the next frame everything is in North Carolina. From Arkansas to North Carolina and skips tennessee. Also shows system after as rain with snow just to our north with a big 1056 HP at the Dakotas border. We may miss em all and even in modeling things seem like they are trying to do the 2 step around us. But where you have cold and moisture close by you got a shot. Hopefully we all score big in the next 10-14 days. Hopefully at least some areas in the forum will. Still don’t think we are done with winter weather yet. At least will still got a pattern where we could still land a good winter storm. ::fingerscrossed:: ::guitar:: ::snowman::

Offline Clint

  • Severe Thunderstorm
  • ****
  • Posts: 369
  • Location: Olive Branch, Ms.
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 686
Re: February 2022
« Reply #17 on: January 28, 2022, 12:49:21 AM »
0Z GFS and 0Z Euro trending better for the Feb-4th system.




Offline Clint

  • Severe Thunderstorm
  • ****
  • Posts: 369
  • Location: Olive Branch, Ms.
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 686
Re: February 2022
« Reply #18 on: January 28, 2022, 01:21:18 AM »
0Z Icon has parts of West Tennessee below freezing between hours 162 thru 180 with heavy rain depicted. IIRC, this model has done this before...the model's precipitation types algorithm needs to be fixed.

Offline stayrose38

  • Shower
  • **
  • Posts: 82
  • Location: chattanooga
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 85
Re: February 2022
« Reply #19 on: January 28, 2022, 03:58:58 AM »
More of a general weather q.. is there anywhere I can see an EPO forecast? I know NWS has teleconnection forecasts for AO, NAO and PNA, but I don't see the EPO there.

Offline Curt

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 9,049
  • Location: Arlington, TN(Memphis suburb)
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 485
February 2022
« Reply #20 on: January 28, 2022, 07:22:55 AM »
0 and 6z Euro controls runs are both a major winter storm for most of middle(northern) and west. Lots of precip types follows by a change to snow. Def something to keep an eye on when it shows up in this range.

Because it shows snow and ice cover, it’s has temps in the single digits (and below zero close by) from Nashville westward.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2022, 07:26:39 AM by Curt »

Offline Matthew

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,236
  • Location: Smryna, TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1514
Re: February 2022
« Reply #21 on: January 28, 2022, 08:32:53 AM »
Hopefully not an ice storm for the Boro.  Then again cold rain would be better than ice. 😬🥴

Offline dwagner88

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,902
  • Location: Chattanooga (East Brainerd) TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 188
Re: February 2022
« Reply #22 on: January 28, 2022, 08:40:29 AM »
0Z GFS and 0Z Euro trending better for the Feb-4th system.


Better is a matter of perspective. Looks far worse to me. Given recent history it's probably accurate.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015: 10.25 in.
Winters 2015-2019: basically nothing
Winter 2019-2020:
2/8/20: 4.25

Offline Bruce

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 10,136
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 3479
Re: February 2022
« Reply #23 on: January 28, 2022, 08:53:18 AM »
0 and 6z Euro controls runs are both a major winter storm for most of middle(northern) and west. Lots of precip types follows by a change to snow. Def something to keep an eye on when it shows up in this range.

Because it shows snow and ice cover, it’s has temps in the single digits (and below zero close by) from Nashville westward.
like I said ice ice baby  fingers crossed it’s not
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Clarksville Snowman

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,830
  • Location: Woodlawn
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 3194
Re: February 2022
« Reply #24 on: January 28, 2022, 09:12:45 AM »
Hopefully more sleet than freezing rain if it has to be ice. Sleet is bad for roads but not for power grids. Hopefully sleet and transition to snow. But for sure ice concerns are legit, I love winter storms but hope if we do get a good one our freezing rain is cut down by sleet mixing. It’s crazy when it’s sleeting we are always pulling for some snow, even though I have come to appreciate a big sleet storm. And when we get freezing rain we are praying for sleet. ::fingerscrossed:: ::guitar:: ::snowman::

Offline bobcat3

  • Sunny
  • *
  • Posts: 11
  • Location: Jackson TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: February 2022
« Reply #25 on: January 28, 2022, 04:17:56 PM »
On a side note, is there any particular reason storm chasers would be out right now.  Just saw two in Pinson, TN south of Jackson.   Some interesting clouds west of us but must curious.

Offline Bruce

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 10,136
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 3479
Re: February 2022
« Reply #26 on: January 28, 2022, 06:15:10 PM »
18zgfs major winter storm large part Arkansas far western parts tn next Friday … artic frontal boundary sets up going be hard forecast  ::coffee::
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Matthew

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,236
  • Location: Smryna, TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1514
Re: February 2022
« Reply #27 on: January 28, 2022, 07:14:25 PM »
18zgfs major winter storm large part Arkansas far western parts tn next Friday … artic frontal boundary sets up going be hard forecast  ::coffee::

I’d say where Euro has it.  That’s where it will be.  Just lots of rain for TN.

Offline Clarksville Snowman

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,830
  • Location: Woodlawn
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 3194
Re: February 2022
« Reply #28 on: January 28, 2022, 08:10:02 PM »
I’d say where Euro has it.  That’s where it will be.  Just lots of rain for TN.
Way to early to say what model has it. The GFS has been doing just as good or better than the euro. And still time for things to go either direction. Far from nailed down at this point. ::fingerscrossed:: ::guitar:: ::snowman::

Offline Drifter

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,493
  • Location: Indianapolis IN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1663
Re: February 2022
« Reply #29 on: January 28, 2022, 09:24:45 PM »
Come on I-70 special 😂
To enjoy things in life that are good, you first must endure things that suck!
Bring on the snow baby!!!

 

*

May 2022
by Dyersburg Weather
[Yesterday at 07:46:59 PM]
2022 Tropical Season
by dwagner88
[Yesterday at 01:55:57 PM]
Cinco de Mayo Severe Risk
by dwagner88
[May 06, 2022, 02:54:51 PM]
April 2022
by StormNine
[May 01, 2022, 06:08:20 PM]