*

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length


Author Topic: "Perfect" Winter Storm Setup Scenario - Memphis  (Read 1306 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline bugalou

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,761
  • Location: Southaven, MS
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 278
"Perfect" Winter Storm Setup Scenario - Memphis
« on: January 22, 2022, 09:42:12 PM »
Lets have a little fun.  We can do one of these for each city, but since I am starting this thread, I am picking my side of the state.
What would be the perfect winter storm setup you would like to see for the Memphis / West TN area?  Feel free to describe analogs, make maps, cite old storms, etc. 

For me I am always partial to the rare long duration over running split flow events where you get Pacific atmospheric rivers and impulsed over riding in place arctic air.  The tricky part with this in Memphis is always ice.  I like this setup less for the block buster single events, but more for the the increased chances of repeat events.  These are more rare these days with less quality arctic surges and a southern stream that can overwhelm the whole thing and bring warmth.  So that's mine, whats yours?

Offline StormNine

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 5,829
  • Location: Hopkinsville KY/ Bowling Green KY
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 249
Re: "Perfect" Winter Storm Setup Scenario - Memphis
« Reply #1 on: January 23, 2022, 12:32:54 PM »
What is interesting and why it is so hard to get a statewide storm is the situation you need for Memphis isn't the same for Nashville, Knoxville, or Chattanooga. 

Memphis needs western-tier APP runners, overrunning events, or well-timed ULL's typically. Setups to really look at include March 2008 or even a Dec 2012 if you shift it east/southeast by 50-75 miles would be solid analogs.  Feb 2006 as well.  In a matter of fact, often when Memphis gets a hit then it is somewhat common for Nashville to get warm-nosed (see Feb 2006). 

For anyone a well-timed upper level low is always a treat as well but there will always be great winners and losers with that situation (see Feb/early March 2009 and 1/15-1/16 of this year)

Offline snowdog

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 6,327
  • Location: Mt. Juliet, TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 346
Re: "Perfect" Winter Storm Setup Scenario - Memphis
« Reply #2 on: January 23, 2022, 01:39:52 PM »
How was Nashville historically scored their few 10+" snowfalls?

Offline Bruce

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 10,136
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 3479
Re: "Perfect" Winter Storm Setup Scenario - Memphis
« Reply #3 on: January 23, 2022, 01:52:54 PM »
Memphis and most west middle even do good deep gulf lo tracking towards Georgia coming out the northern gulf
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Dyersburg Weather

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,113
  • Location: North of 40
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 855
Re: "Perfect" Winter Storm Setup Scenario - Memphis
« Reply #4 on: January 23, 2022, 01:55:19 PM »
Memphis and most west middle even do good deep gulf lo tracking towards Georgia coming out the northern gulf
Not me. To heck With a gulf low.

Offline Bruce

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 10,136
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 3479
Re: "Perfect" Winter Storm Setup Scenario - Memphis
« Reply #5 on: January 23, 2022, 02:25:23 PM »
Not me. To heck With a gulf low.
think it was the second snow I n the famous winter 85 January was gulf low coming out heading to Georgia .
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Clarksville Snowman

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,830
  • Location: Woodlawn
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 3194
Re: "Perfect" Winter Storm Setup Scenario - Memphis
« Reply #6 on: January 23, 2022, 03:48:53 PM »
Memphis and most west middle even do good deep gulf lo tracking towards Georgia coming out the northern gulf
I agree, the bad thing is them type often just miss us in northwest middle or we get the lighter side of it. What works for Dyersburg usually works for us, unless it’s clippers or something to our south. What I would like to see 1. A good old slow moving west to east southern slider that gets the entire state. 2. A long duration over running situation with more snow than ice. 3. A west apps runner, not good for eastern areas but west and most of middle often do very well. ::guitar:: ::snowman::
« Last Edit: January 23, 2022, 03:55:40 PM by Clarksville Snowman »

Offline bugalou

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,761
  • Location: Southaven, MS
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 278
Re: "Perfect" Winter Storm Setup Scenario - Memphis
« Reply #7 on: January 25, 2022, 07:56:16 PM »
Memphis and most west middle even do good deep gulf lo tracking towards Georgia coming out the northern gulf

I hate gulf low setups.  There is always temp issues or its too far south. Then there is the dry slot.  I have just seen far too many fall apart and while they can pullout some blockbuster numbers, its such a crap shoot it isn't worth the stress.  I would rather have a low QPF northern stream shortwave with higher than normal rations than a gulf low any day of the week.

Offline bugalou

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,761
  • Location: Southaven, MS
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 278
Re: "Perfect" Winter Storm Setup Scenario - Memphis
« Reply #8 on: January 25, 2022, 07:59:02 PM »
Another good setup for Memphis is like in the instance of last year where Memphis is just east of a deep trough with its base in mid Texas and Pacific impulses train along the jet.  That setup is rare though as the center of the cold air doesn usually dive that far south and when it does, we end up on the dry NW flow side of things.

Offline Dyersburg Weather

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,113
  • Location: North of 40
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 855
Re: "Perfect" Winter Storm Setup Scenario - Memphis
« Reply #9 on: January 26, 2022, 05:35:18 AM »
Another good setup for Memphis is like in the instance of last year where Memphis is just east of a deep trough with its base in mid Texas and Pacific impulses train along the jet.  That setup is rare though as the center of the cold air doesn usually dive that far south and when it does, we end up on the dry NW flow side of things.
Imagine this pattern locked in all winter. We had two of these winters in the late 70s.

Offline Dyersburg Weather

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,113
  • Location: North of 40
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 855
Re: "Perfect" Winter Storm Setup Scenario - Memphis
« Reply #10 on: January 26, 2022, 05:37:43 AM »
A Stalled out arctic front like the 6z GFS is showing is another example.

[ Guests cannot view attachments ]

Offline bugalou

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,761
  • Location: Southaven, MS
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 278
Re: "Perfect" Winter Storm Setup Scenario - Memphis
« Reply #11 on: January 26, 2022, 10:43:17 AM »
A Stalled out arctic front like the 6z GFS is showing is another example.

(Attachment Link)

Yep.  These things can easily turn into crippling icestorms too.

Offline Curt

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 9,049
  • Location: Arlington, TN(Memphis suburb)
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 485
Re: "Perfect" Winter Storm Setup Scenario - Memphis
« Reply #12 on: January 26, 2022, 01:32:07 PM »
So much to say with little time.

1. Gulf low- best example is 3/7/08. Best track for us is a surface LP in east AL/ west GA with trailing ULL support on the NW side. that track resulted in white out conditions. A more likely scenario is cold air in place with a LP along the GOM with copious moisture but light winds- best example is early Jan 2011.
 
2. Arctic Front Post Precip- best example is 3/5/15, 1/30/85, 1/30/51. Even the ice storm in 2/94 is a good example. Both involved a slow moving or stalled arctic front with waves behind each one. Usually involves multiple precip types changing to snow on the backend.

3. ULL- no unlike the one in early January, 1/16/98 was a great example. The precip stalled over west TN with a crippling ice storm in eastern parts and a snow event in western and southern parts. 2-4 fell in Memphis but up to 10 in Marshall/Benton counties.

4. Weirdest- 2/28/09 ULL diving in from NW merging with a LP in MS and AL. Some 12-18 inches reported from Arlington to Jackson. This wont happen again most likely or at least its rare.

 

*

May 2022
by Dyersburg Weather
[Yesterday at 07:46:59 PM]
2022 Tropical Season
by dwagner88
[Yesterday at 01:55:57 PM]
Cinco de Mayo Severe Risk
by dwagner88
[May 06, 2022, 02:54:51 PM]
April 2022
by StormNine
[May 01, 2022, 06:08:20 PM]