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Author Topic: january 15th snow threat  (Read 32327 times)

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Offline wilsoncountygirl

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Re: january 15th snow threat
« Reply #960 on: January 15, 2022, 02:34:05 AM »
Lebnun represent!
How's it looking for is?

Offline Bruce

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Re: january 15th snow threat
« Reply #961 on: January 15, 2022, 04:07:43 AM »
Meg seems as of now least not to upgrade as now. They re issues the watch this morning 330. Afd should be very interesting out shortly
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Charles L.

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Re: january 15th snow threat
« Reply #962 on: January 15, 2022, 04:18:44 AM »
NWS Nashville also sticking with the watch for now…here is their morning discussion.

Quote
Consensus model blend used through next Friday afternoon. Maybe
a early morning rain/snow mixture but no wintry accumulations
expected. Rain showers will spread across mid state region as
day progresses with highs near seasonal normal values spanning
the 40s. Only light rainfall amounts expected through afternoon
hours today with most locations receiving less than one quarter
of an inch. Continued with Winter Storm Watch with expected
accumulation amounts ranging from around 3 inches to around 7
inches with locally higher amounts possible. With the potential
set up of more pronounced individual snow deformation zones
across mid state region, i.e. where they might actually set up,
that could support enhanced upright convection capable of
producing 1-2 inch an hour snowfall rates will be a significant
factor that certainly could lead to locally higher snowfall
accumulation amounts. Global, national, and short term models
are all in general good agreement with movement of surface and
upper level lows across deep south Saturday night into Sunday
and then northeastward up Appalachian chain as late Sunday night
into Martin Luther King JR Day progresses. With plentiful wrap
around moisture expected across mid state region along with cold
air advection settling in, do not expect temperatures rise much
if any from lows values experienced tonight.     
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Offline Coach B

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Re: january 15th snow threat
« Reply #963 on: January 15, 2022, 04:22:40 AM »
With the morning update MEG and OHX shifted their gridded snow totals south just a bit. MRX shifted theirs north. No update from HUN yet:


Offline Charles L.

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Re: january 15th snow threat
« Reply #964 on: January 15, 2022, 04:33:38 AM »
The 9z RAP increases QPF by a lot across middle TN, but it is very wonky with the temps and therefore doesn’t handle any accumulations well at all. It keeps everyone in middle TN in the 34-37° range throughout the entire event. ::shrug::
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Offline Bruce

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Re: january 15th snow threat
« Reply #965 on: January 15, 2022, 04:37:07 AM »
Meg  afd out … saying snow rates look be times inch or more hour . Still thinking along 1 40 corridor for deform band sets up as now… but holding off any upgrade tells me still to much uncertainty and we are less than 24 hours showtime . What a mess.  ::coffee::  they seemed pretty concerned with power outages
« Last Edit: January 15, 2022, 04:40:40 AM by Bruce »
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Charles L.

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Re: january 15th snow threat
« Reply #966 on: January 15, 2022, 05:35:41 AM »
Just some news to share from upstream…

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Not saying it means much for us tomorrow, but it is something we need to watch if the changeover/temps aren’t cooperating in MO.
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Offline Charles L.

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Re: january 15th snow threat
« Reply #967 on: January 15, 2022, 05:51:31 AM »
New snowfall map from NWS Nashville

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Offline Coach B

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Re: january 15th snow threat
« Reply #968 on: January 15, 2022, 06:06:46 AM »
New snowfall map from NWS Nashville

If that holds they will upgrade much of middle TN to a Warning this afternoon. However, the gap in accumulations showing up on many of the models southeast of Nashville is......concerning.

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: january 15th snow threat
« Reply #969 on: January 15, 2022, 06:09:43 AM »
Don't worry East TN valley, Accuweather still insists we'll see 3-6 inches from tonight through Sunday  ::rofl::

Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: january 15th snow threat
« Reply #970 on: January 15, 2022, 06:36:45 AM »
Morning folks, looks like Nashville trimmed back my amounts but moisture looks good. Euro looks good as well as NAM. Let’s bring it home to all of west and middle Tennessee today! ::guitar:: ::popcorn:: ::snowman:: ::cold::

Offline Coach B

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Re: january 15th snow threat
« Reply #971 on: January 15, 2022, 06:53:00 AM »
Other than not liking Eric's house the 06Z Euro is steady and solid for most of west and mid TN.

Offline Hank W

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Re: january 15th snow threat
« Reply #972 on: January 15, 2022, 06:57:33 AM »
Other than not liking Eric's house the 06Z Euro is steady and solid for most of west and mid TN.
Still sticking to the same high amounts?

Offline Coach B

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Re: january 15th snow threat
« Reply #973 on: January 15, 2022, 06:59:03 AM »
Still sticking to the same high amounts?


Offline mempho

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Re: january 15th snow threat
« Reply #974 on: January 15, 2022, 06:59:59 AM »
I assume MEG is waiting because it's pondering issuing a BZW. 

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Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

 

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