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Author Topic: january 15th snow threat  (Read 31323 times)

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Offline snowdog

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Re: january 15th snow threat
« Reply #690 on: January 14, 2022, 12:39:39 PM »
12Z Euro snow accumulation Kuchera ratio at 72 hours. Warm nose extends a little deeper into TN but not long lived.

Fine, I'll climb back up...


Offline Cody029

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Re: january 15th snow threat
« Reply #691 on: January 14, 2022, 12:40:23 PM »
Does the NWS see these models before we do?
They probably get the raw data that comes out as soon as its out but the actual models we see are loaded probably same for them. They can probably decipher the data faster for the info they want out of a run.

Offline Michael

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Re: january 15th snow threat
« Reply #692 on: January 14, 2022, 12:46:28 PM »
12Z Euro snow accumulation Kuchera ratio at 72 hours. Warm nose extends a little deeper into TN but not long lived.

Ah yes...the East TN Valley middle finger from the models  ::bangingheadintowall::
effin downsloping bs
According to MRX...
Morristown's Last Measured Snowfall of >5.5" was on Feb 2, 1996 when 11.2" was measured.
We. Are. Way. Overdue. For. A. 6"+ Snowfall.

Jan 3, 2022 - 1.5"
Jan 16-17, 2022 - 2.0"

Offline bmorris

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Re: january 15th snow threat
« Reply #693 on: January 14, 2022, 12:50:49 PM »
Seems like classic valley slush for us

Offline JKT1987

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Re: january 15th snow threat
« Reply #694 on: January 14, 2022, 12:51:38 PM »
Does the NWS see these models before we do?

No everyone basically gets it at the same time. Fun! 😂

Offline dwagner88

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Re: january 15th snow threat
« Reply #695 on: January 14, 2022, 12:52:28 PM »
Seems like classic valley slush for us
I'd take that. My 6 year running total is under 5" total.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015: 10.25 in.
Winters 2015-2019: basically nothing
Winter 2019-2020:
2/8/20: 4.25

Offline ChattSnow

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Re: january 15th snow threat
« Reply #696 on: January 14, 2022, 12:55:01 PM »
That's the great thing about living in Chattanooga.  There is never any disappointment, because there are never models that mislead us into thinking we might get any snow.  We can be surrounded by Winter Storm Warnings for 200 miles, and it will rain here.

Offline Michael

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Re: january 15th snow threat
« Reply #697 on: January 14, 2022, 12:56:52 PM »
The good ole East TN F You  ::bangingheadintowall::
According to MRX...
Morristown's Last Measured Snowfall of >5.5" was on Feb 2, 1996 when 11.2" was measured.
We. Are. Way. Overdue. For. A. 6"+ Snowfall.

Jan 3, 2022 - 1.5"
Jan 16-17, 2022 - 2.0"

Offline OutsiderLuknIn

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Re: january 15th snow threat
« Reply #698 on: January 14, 2022, 01:01:09 PM »
Sorry if this has been asked and I missed it, but how has the Euro performed the last couple of weeks with those systems?


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Offline Curt

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Re: january 15th snow threat
« Reply #699 on: January 14, 2022, 01:19:42 PM »
As suspected the Euro control is basically a mirror of the deterministic. One small change is a southward drift of the snow band by maybe 25-30 miles or so. May or may not be significant. To think the system would fall completely apart since western regions are about 24 hours from go time would be an anomaly. Maybe at worst it’s pinpointing the area of target even if snowfall amounts are less than this.

Offline Coach B

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Re: january 15th snow threat
« Reply #700 on: January 14, 2022, 01:20:04 PM »
For gcbama - Probability of snowfall greater than 3" off the 12Z Euro Ens:

Offline justinmundie

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Re: january 15th snow threat
« Reply #701 on: January 14, 2022, 01:20:57 PM »
My house is the yellow dot
Snow lover who moved to a place where it never snows.

Offline Bruce

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Re: january 15th snow threat
« Reply #702 on: January 14, 2022, 01:28:22 PM »
As suspected the Euro control is basically a mirror of the deterministic. One small change is a southward drift of the snow band by maybe 25-30 miles or so. May or may not be significant. To think the system would fall completely apart since western regions are about 24 hours from go time would be an anomaly. Maybe at worst it’s pinpointing the area of target even if snowfall amounts are less than this.
yeah feeling decent for my area though would like see heavy deform band nudge. It back north tad… models have hard time picking exactly were it sets up at… bout short range time now
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Scot

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Re: january 15th snow threat
« Reply #703 on: January 14, 2022, 01:38:33 PM »
18z HRRR basically has the low in the gulf just off the Florida panhandle.

Offline gcbama

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Re: january 15th snow threat
« Reply #704 on: January 14, 2022, 01:40:03 PM »
For gcbama - Probability of snowfall greater than 3" off the 12Z Euro Ens:

really seems like from hwy 64 to i-40 is sweet spot, been looking like that for almost 2 days now :), what could go wrong LOL!!!! like i say i am happy with 3-5 and would be overjoyed to get 6 plus

 

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