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Author Topic: December 2021  (Read 9104 times)

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Online Clarksville Snowman

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Re: December 2021
« Reply #45 on: December 08, 2021, 09:20:32 AM »
Enjoying the warmth now, but feeling good about end of the month toward January. It could be fun for us winter weather lovers!!!!!  ::popcorn:: ::snowman::  ::cold::
« Last Edit: December 08, 2021, 09:25:07 AM by Clarksville Snowman »

Offline Nashville_Wx

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Re: December 2021
« Reply #46 on: December 08, 2021, 02:09:36 PM »
I just want Wet bulbs below 20F and Ill be happy. Ill produce the moisture, I just need mother nature to produce the cold. On a good note there is a nice atmospheric river event shaping up for the Sierras. Much needed snowfall in all the western states aside from Washington. Ill give up a cold December in Nashville to put down base out west.


Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: December 2021
« Reply #47 on: December 09, 2021, 11:10:11 AM »
Merry Christmas from the GFS.

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Offline schneitzeit

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Re: December 2021
« Reply #48 on: December 09, 2021, 05:05:08 PM »
We got about 7" of lake-effect over the past 2 days. First significant snowfall of the season. Been very torchy up here.
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Offline schneitzeit

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Re: December 2021
« Reply #49 on: December 09, 2021, 10:29:21 PM »
This afternoon

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Offline stayrose38

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Re: December 2021
« Reply #50 on: December 10, 2021, 01:47:16 AM »
Tonight's GFS still showing a significant Arctic air mass right before Christmas, while the Euro not so much. Give it a couple days or so to see which is right. I take things simple. I don't understand how the MJO affects North American Weather 10 days down the line, or how well mid/long range AO, EPO or NAO forecasts verify. Complex processes, but surely there is an easier way to filter all this information. Meanwhile, I will stand by the Wunderground Algorithm...  :)
« Last Edit: December 10, 2021, 02:21:28 AM by stayrose38 »

Offline dwagner88

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Re: December 2021
« Reply #51 on: December 13, 2021, 07:34:41 PM »
Interesting temperature inversion across the eastern half of the state this evening. Crossville is the warmest reporting station at the moment. That’s rare in winter.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
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Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015: 10.25 in.
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2/8/20: 4.25

Offline Crockett

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Re: December 2021
« Reply #52 on: December 13, 2021, 10:39:13 PM »
Interesting temperature inversion across the eastern half of the state this evening. Crossville is the warmest reporting station at the moment. That’s rare in winter.

Not as rare as you'd think! Anytime we flip from a NW flow regime to a SW flow regime, the plateau tends to warm more quickly than the valley. As a hunter, the first thing I do when my alarm goes off is check the weather on my phone, before I even get out of bed. And there are many mornings I wake up to find that it's 8-10 degrees warmer in Crossville than in Knoxville or Oak Ridge. That's how I know a southerly breeze has kicked up overnight.

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: December 2021
« Reply #53 on: December 14, 2021, 05:06:50 PM »
I'm afraid this winter is going to be like 2011-12. What a junk pattern we are in now. No reason to sugarcoat it.

If there's no snow in the forecast for Chicago for the next 2 weeks in December, you know it's bad.
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April 16, 1998 Tornado
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Online Matthew

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Re: December 2021
« Reply #54 on: December 14, 2021, 05:20:15 PM »
I'm afraid this winter is going to be like 2011-12. What a junk pattern we are in now. No reason to sugarcoat it.

If there's no snow in the forecast for Chicago for the next 2 weeks in December, you know it's bad.

I will take the wx we’re having this week.  Absolutely gorgeous.

Offline rkhvoljohnsoncity

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Re: December 2021
« Reply #55 on: December 14, 2021, 05:36:35 PM »
Minneapolis got 8 inches of snow about 3 days ago and it may all be gone before Christmas. They were 43 for a high today, 52 and rain tomorrow , and 41 Thursday before it gets cold again with no snow forecasted for the next 2 weeks. Crazy stuff


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Offline rkhvoljohnsoncity

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Re: December 2021
« Reply #56 on: December 14, 2021, 05:38:39 PM »
Also, there is no snow on the ground in Caribou Maine right now with little chance before Christmas


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Offline snowdog

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Re: December 2021
« Reply #57 on: December 14, 2021, 06:32:27 PM »
I'm afraid this winter is going to be like 2011-12. What a junk pattern we are in now. No reason to sugarcoat it.

If there's no snow in the forecast for Chicago for the next 2 weeks in December, you know it's bad.

Could just be one of those crap years, but more than likely it means it will be more back loaded.

BamWx had an interesting tweet and graphic the other day...

Quote
Even if the pattern gets colder, one concern we have as far as wintry prospects is the lack of a more persistent jet influence.

Stronger La Niña years have tended to run less snowy for the E/Central US vs. climatology. The current MEI is the 3rd lowest since 1979.



https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1470772086553690114

Online Clarksville Snowman

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Re: December 2021
« Reply #58 on: December 14, 2021, 11:04:37 PM »
Still feeling great about late December and especially the first half of January! We’re going to get ours!!! ::popcorn:: ::cold:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::

Offline Coach B

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Re: December 2021
« Reply #59 on: December 15, 2021, 09:40:29 AM »
No doubt the next week or two looks mostly mild. However, I'm seeing enough info out there from more knowledgeable folks to keep plenty of positivity going into the New Year. The progression of the MJO, likelihood of a -NAO, and the -QBO are all potentially going in the right direction just in time for the deep winter period in January. Certainly there are lots of potential issues as well, especially with regards to how much influence the SER will have. It'll be there, but we'll have to see if it ends up hurting us or helping us.

 

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