December 2021

[schneitzeit]

Welcome to the beginning of meteorological winter!

If you like snow, I hate to kick off with the bad news, but it looks like we're going to have to punt at least the first half of this month. I'm sticking to my guns that the Tennessee Valley will have better chances for snowfall later on. This +AO/NAO and -PNA is going to set the table for the foreseeable future.

[schneitzeit]

Some spots in North America are in a good place for snow thanks to the storm tracks. The Cascades, the Upper Great Lakes and the St. Lawrence River Valley will likely witness above normal snowfall this month. Looks like below normal everywhere else.

Remember, though, it only takes one...

[Thundersnow]

We have some overproducing showers passing through the Nashville area. Even now, OHX only has a 10 percent chance of light rain in the grids. I was surprised to look out just now and see a wet street.

[StormNine]

[ Guests cannot view attachments ]

This is what I call the winter cancel look especially those heights in the Aleutian Island region.  If that becomes locked then it is game over.

If we had some solid snow cover in Southern Canada/Northern Plains then eventually we may see W KY/NW TN getting into some action, but since we don't this is the classic everyone torches (minus the Cascades and Alaska) look.     

[rkhvoljohnsoncity]

Right now it appears this could be a winter where even where I live in Northeast Tennessee at 2,000 feet will not even get snow showers. I saw a graph the other day where Burlington, Vermont was averaging 7 degrees warmer in winter the last 10 years compared to the 1970’s. Chattanooga was almost 6 degrees warmer. That would put the northern half of Tennessee with the same temperature Birmingham, Alabama used to have. Crazy


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[schneitzeit]

Don't panic just yet- there's plenty of time left. The pattern right now is no bueno for snow. If we still have this look by mid-January, cliff diving is excused. What isn't good in terms of analogs is the CONUS looks like it did rolling into the 2011-2012 winter. Hardly any snow to be found anywhere except the Upper Great Lakes and the Cascades.

Don't underestimate the power of winter to bring some wild temperature swings, and with it, a surprise snowstorm.

[Matthew]

Does anyone really do any cliff diving in this area anymore?  I would think everyone is accustomed to these kinda winters now.  Honestly I’m good with only 1-2 weeks of real winter.  I love this 50’s to 60’s wx.  Makes electric bills much cheaper.  I’d say by mid January with the mild days coming for mid month.  We will have some trees trying to bud & grass turning green.  Fescue is still green. 

[Thundersnow]

Blizzard Warnings for the high elevations on the big island of Hawaii.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
311 AM HST Fri Dec 3 2021

...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS...

HIZ028-040215-
/O.CON.PHFO.BZ.W.0001.211204T0400Z-211205T1600Z/
Big Island Summits-
311 AM HST Fri Dec 3 2021

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 AM HST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations
  of up to 12 inches or more. Winds gusting over 100 mph.

* WHERE...Big Island Summits.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 6 AM HST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible.
  Blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility at times,
  with periods of zero visibility. See the High Wind Warning
  that is also in effect.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strong winds will likely cause
  significant drifting of snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must
travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded,
stay with your vehicle.

[StormNine]

Slight Risk of severe weather for West TN tomorrow evening-night.

A very conditional risk but the shear and jet dynamics are favorable.

[Thundersnow]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day1otlk_20211205_1300.html

Not sure if we need a dedicated thread for today’s risk or not, but it bears keeping an eye on.

[mamMATTus]

FINALLY weather to track all the way through next weekend.

[mamMATTus]

That was an interesting Euro run last night regardless of how unlikely it might be. From severe to snow in 24 hours. It IS within the 7 day timeframe though.

[StormNine]

That was an interesting Euro run last night regardless of how unlikely it might be. From severe to snow in 24 hours. It IS within the 7 day timeframe though.

It is a La-Nina.

I must say we finally have a winter that acts like its ENSO state. 

[StormNine]

If you take your warm/torchy La-Nina series:

1889-90
Several of your 1950s and early to mid 1970s Nina's
1998-99
1999-00
2011-12

The pattern we see thus far pretty much mimics those winters.  If you are a snow lover and you are holding out for hope (to which I commend you because right now this winter looks DOA) you would be glad to know that 1995 is actually fairly similar. 

[Jilly]

SPC has W and Mid TN in slight risk
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html