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Author Topic: November 2021  (Read 7594 times)

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Offline StormNine

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Re: November 2021
« Reply #105 on: November 24, 2021, 08:47:48 PM »
With very little rain forecast around Chattanooga through the end of the month, it's looking likely we will see a top ten driest month on record. Currently sitting at .70 right now, and that's good for 6th driest Nov based on Nowdata records. The driest was in 1890, with only .16.

I would be concerned about drought from Southern Canada and across much of the nation if we cannot shake this Central USA ridge stuff by the early part of Spring. It essentially will act as a roadblock for storm systems and shoot them up through Canada instead of the US.  This also could also make Capitan Bruce Tornado an upset man as well.  We are dangerously close to a 2012 or some of the Nina years of the 1950s.   

Offline Curt

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Re: November 2021
« Reply #106 on: November 25, 2021, 11:12:21 AM »
I would be concerned about drought from Southern Canada and across much of the nation if we cannot shake this Central USA ridge stuff by the early part of Spring. It essentially will act as a roadblock for storm systems and shoot them up through Canada instead of the US.  This also could also make Capitan Bruce Tornado an upset man as well.  We are dangerously close to a 2012 or some of the Nina years of the 1950s.
Devils advocate. Strat warm with a weak PV in December and a MJO rolling into 7. 2011/12 could t buy a weak PV.  Tons of weak ninas with a stat warm in December analogs could open the freezer door.


 

Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: November 2021
« Reply #107 on: November 25, 2021, 03:23:59 PM »
Would love to get in a snow or 2 in December and then hopefully get a reload late Jan. It doesn't take but a couple decent events in this area to have a average winter at least. Would be nice to see a few snows in December, it would also give us for some hope later in winter for maybe another shot.  ::popcorn:: ::cold::  ::snowman::

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: November 2021
« Reply #108 on: November 25, 2021, 07:20:41 PM »
I'll leave it at this: I like the optimism. I'm not too optimistic for points east of the Rockies this winter.

I'll make a prediction map right before met. winter kicks off. Curious about everyone's thoughts for the CONUS this winter.
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline StormNine

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Re: November 2021
« Reply #109 on: November 25, 2021, 08:00:38 PM »
I'll leave it at this: I like the optimism. I'm not too optimistic for points east of the Rockies this winter.

I'll make a prediction map right before met. winter kicks off. Curious about everyone's thoughts for the CONUS this winter.

Although this Nina won't get as strong as that one did, I really think we are looking at a 1999-00 type of winter.  A winter that is going to be overall quite warm across much of North America, but will feature a solid 2-3 week period of blocking that will feature a chance for at least one solid winter threat. There is probably enough polar action or potential for blocking to prevent this winter from going straight up 2011-12.

I could also see a few severe weather/tornado threats as well if you can sneak some troughing in or get pacific systems to climb underneath the central US ridging.  Not as extreme as 1889-1890, 1998-1999, or 2007-2008 but perhaps up to a 1999-2000, 2011-2012, or 2016-2017 level. 

Drought could become an issue for much of the nation and even adjacent parts of Canada and Mexico come Spring/Summer.  Widespread severe weather activity may end for many folks in March or Early April while storm chasing season in the Plains could turn to dust.   
« Last Edit: November 25, 2021, 08:02:52 PM by StormNine »

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: November 2021
« Reply #110 on: November 28, 2021, 04:38:23 PM »
Hard to believe that 5 years ago today Gatlinburg was on fire.

Offline dwagner88

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Re: November 2021
« Reply #111 on: November 29, 2021, 10:59:28 AM »
This has been the most boring November I can remember weather-wise. Absolutely nothing remarkable.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015: 10.25 in.
Winters 2015-2019: basically nothing
Winter 2019-2020:
2/8/20: 4.25

Offline Crockett

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Re: November 2021
« Reply #112 on: November 29, 2021, 11:51:09 AM »
This has been the most boring November I can remember weather-wise. Absolutely nothing remarkable.

And it has been marvelous!

Offline Nash_LSU

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Re: November 2021
« Reply #113 on: November 29, 2021, 04:22:53 PM »
I'm okay with boring Novembers. It was a good month with some great color. Now let's move on to the season of being continually disappointed by disappearing snow systems  :P

Offline stayrose38

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Re: November 2021
« Reply #114 on: November 29, 2021, 09:12:18 PM »
Yeah, it's been slightly below avg temp wise.. a lot of cold mornings. But remarkable only for its dryness. And lack of storminess, usually we see some good storm set ups in Nov. Maybe this year January is our weird storm month. Hopefully.

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: November 2021
« Reply #115 on: November 30, 2021, 09:09:04 AM »
Yeah, it's been slightly below avg temp wise.. a lot of cold mornings. But remarkable only for its dryness. And lack of storminess, usually we see some good storm set ups in Nov. Maybe this year January is our weird storm month. Hopefully.

My prediction is for an active severe pattern for the later half of winter (late Jan/Feb/Mar). We'll see.
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: November 2021
« Reply #116 on: December 02, 2021, 06:04:27 AM »
November ended 2-3 degrees below normal statewide.

 

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