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Author Topic: October 2021  (Read 3157 times)

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Offline StormNine

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Re: October 2021
« Reply #45 on: October 10, 2021, 10:06:19 AM »
Potential outbreak for the Southern Plains into the Ouachita region today and a rare/potentially historic tornado risk for Northern Minnesota/Southern Canada for this late in the year. 

Offline gcbama

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Re: October 2021
« Reply #46 on: October 10, 2021, 04:42:11 PM »
interesting how a tornado watch with all teh parameters ( other than hail) are in the high category is not a PDS....i never can figure out how they decide pds....

Offline StormNine

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Re: October 2021
« Reply #47 on: October 10, 2021, 07:10:04 PM »
It looks like we are about to get a serial derecho going in Central Oklahoma and moving through TX, East OK, and even into the Ozarks. 

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: October 2021
« Reply #48 on: October 13, 2021, 05:22:05 AM »
Temperatures have trended cooler for the weekend. Highs mid 60s now forecast for Saturday with overnight lows into the low 40s. OHX says upper 30s are possible for the plateau in this morning’s AFD.

Offline Bruce

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Re: October 2021
« Reply #49 on: October 13, 2021, 07:56:49 AM »
Temperatures have trended cooler for the weekend. Highs mid 60s now forecast for Saturday with overnight lows into the low 40s. OHX says upper 30s are possible for the plateau in this morning’s AFD.
looks to be quick recovery after this weekend . The weekend going feel more fall like. But signs heading into November  indicate temps staying above average …
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: October 2021
« Reply #50 on: October 13, 2021, 09:54:35 AM »
Can anyone tell me what colors are like in the Smokies right now?

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: October 2021
« Reply #51 on: October 13, 2021, 11:23:49 AM »
looks to be quick recovery after this weekend.

It's the kind of moderation we typically see in the days after a cooldown, as in back into the 70s next week. But, I'm already seeing a similar cooldown the following weekend on some extended forecasts. It's conceivable we flirt with 80 degrees again (that would be a normal kind of thing we would see in October anyway), but I'm not sure we see 85 again until the spring. I could be wrong. I suspect it may be a while before we see the warmth we've experienced over the last few days.

I don't have much confidence in super long range forecasts weeks in advance. We'll see what's in store for November once November rolls around.  ;)

Offline DocB

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Re: October 2021
« Reply #52 on: October 13, 2021, 12:38:18 PM »
Can anyone tell me what colors are like in the Smokies right now?
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Offline Bruce

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Re: October 2021
« Reply #53 on: October 13, 2021, 01:13:51 PM »
It's the kind of moderation we typically see in the days after a cooldown, as in back into the 70s next week. But, I'm already seeing a similar cooldown the following weekend on some extended forecasts. It's conceivable we flirt with 80 degrees again (that would be a normal kind of thing we would see in October anyway), but I'm not sure we see 85 again until the spring. I could be wrong. I suspect it may be a while before we see the warmth we've experienced over the last few days.

I don't have much confidence in super long range forecasts weeks in advance. We'll see what's in store for November once November rolls around.  ;)
just not seeing anyway much way  to get any true artic air  down here in our neck of the woods next 30 days or so … which temps look stay above seasonal average s. Going into next month.I sure would hope the 85 or higher degree  days are over this season, we are going November soon.
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Offline schneitzeit

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Re: October 2021
« Reply #54 on: October 13, 2021, 01:34:28 PM »
just not seeing anyway much way  to get any true artic air  down here in our neck of the woods next 30 days or so … which temps look stay above seasonal average s. Going into next month.I sure would hope the 85 or higher degree  days are over this season, we are going November soon.

I'm not seeing anything either. The Eastern U.S. will cool down this Sunday and Monday, but as you said, there's no foreseeable chance for an Arctic airmass to come south while Canada is so warm. The latest run of the GFS shows many temperatures above freezing north of the Arctic Circle. That's pretty toasty for mid October.
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Offline Thundersnow

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Re: October 2021
« Reply #55 on: October 13, 2021, 01:40:50 PM »
just not seeing anyway much way  to get any true artic air  down here in our neck of the woods next 30 days or so …

I wouldn't really want or expect true Arctic air this early anyway. That can hold off till December.

Offline Bruce

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Re: October 2021
« Reply #56 on: October 14, 2021, 08:46:26 AM »
Slight risk out tomorrow for big chunk of west tn parts middle Tennessee… wind damage main threat. But tornado risk not completely zero…
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline gcbama

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Re: October 2021
« Reply #57 on: Yesterday at 09:17:59 AM »
never know with these fall systems, we are getting close to our fall tornado season so wouldn't be shocked to see one or two today

Offline Matthew

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Re: October 2021
« Reply #58 on: Yesterday at 10:00:00 AM »
Looks like the risk did not pan out which I’m just fine with. Even the rain seems to be Ho hum. 

Offline Vols1

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Re: October 2021
« Reply #59 on: Yesterday at 10:11:58 AM »
I think the threat is for this afternoon Matthew

 

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by schneitzeit
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