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Author Topic: October 2021  (Read 3162 times)

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Offline Curt

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October 2021
« on: October 01, 2021, 04:26:25 PM »
Get it.

Offline StormNine

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Re: October 2021
« Reply #1 on: October 02, 2021, 06:29:09 AM »
The 8-14 (and possibly a bit beyond) is a butt ugly pattern if you want nice crisp fall weather.

The only silver lining is it looks to provide relief from drought-stricken areas like the Northern Plains through the Northern Rockies/Pacfic Northwest.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a severe weather/tornado threat set up in the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest region (think like Dakotas, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, and perhaps as far south as northern Missouri) by mid-month due to the analog set.   

Offline dwagner88

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Re: October 2021
« Reply #2 on: October 02, 2021, 10:00:11 PM »
Another wet week upcoming for the eastern half of the state. Looks like most of eastern TN will get the entire month’s rainfall average in the next 7 days. I’ve done such a small amount of watering over the last few years that I’m not even sure my sprinkler works anymore.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015: 10.25 in.
Winters 2015-2019: basically nothing
Winter 2019-2020:
2/8/20: 4.25

Offline snowdog

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Re: October 2021
« Reply #3 on: October 03, 2021, 09:36:18 AM »
10 day Euro, not a decent cool front in sight. Going to be another of those years where we go from summer to winter?

Online Bruce

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Re: October 2021
« Reply #4 on: October 03, 2021, 09:53:02 AM »
10 day Euro, not a decent cool front in sight. Going to be another of those years where we go from summer to winter?
or go from a late summer to mild fall pattern… time will tell .  Solid negative pna pattern on eps latest
« Last Edit: October 03, 2021, 09:58:51 AM by Bruce »
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline StormNine

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Re: October 2021
« Reply #5 on: October 04, 2021, 07:03:14 AM »
- PNA, Gulf of Alaska Low, and that darn stupid ugly island high pressure off the west coast of Alaska. 

The good thing is that it looks to provide some very much-needed relief for the Pacific Northwest.

The bad thing is well October looks lost.  Long-range models show a crash into winter by early November meaning a flash fall as far as fall colors go.

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: October 2021
« Reply #6 on: October 04, 2021, 09:53:41 AM »
Forecast for anywhere east of the Rockies this month:


 ::blowtorch::
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Online Bruce

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Re: October 2021
« Reply #7 on: October 04, 2021, 10:52:09 AM »
Forecast for anywhere east of the Rockies this month:


 ::blowtorch::
yeah, if your looking for classic cool fall weather October won’t be it. Stick fork in that. Not going happen , now as this month creeps on forward , long range models are starting hint at the jet stream pushing bit ever more southward , may just start to get some interesting weather later this month , likely heading towards are first classic fall severe weather chance ….
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline StormNine

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Re: October 2021
« Reply #8 on: October 04, 2021, 10:57:01 AM »
Top October analogs for this pattern include:

1994
1998
2005
2007

This may be a time where Bruce's severe weather doom predictions are proven right. Whether we have an active severe weather season in Late October-November is going to obviously depend on other more specific details, but the overall pattern and pattern evolution does support a higher than normal chance of it occurring. 

Offline StormNine

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Re: October 2021
« Reply #9 on: October 04, 2021, 10:59:14 AM »
yeah, if your looking for classic cool fall weather October won’t be it. Stick fork in that. Not going happen , now as this month creeps on forward , long range models are starting hint at the jet stream pushing bit ever more southward , may just start to get some interesting weather later this month , likely heading towards are first classic fall severe weather chance ….

I wouldn't be surprised to see a very rare/potentially historic chance of severe weather/tornadoes in areas that just don't see it in October.  I'm talking about areas like the Dakotas/Minnesota/perhaps into adjacent parts of Wisconsin and Iowa.   

Offline Matthew

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Re: October 2021
« Reply #10 on: October 04, 2021, 11:05:15 AM »
If one thing we all should have learned the last few years.  Don’t believe long range models.  Seems not to long ago it was supposed to be an historic active spring.  Average temp is around 80.  If stay around that temp with some rain I’m good with that. Severe wx can just stay non existent.

Offline dwagner88

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Re: October 2021
« Reply #11 on: October 04, 2021, 01:21:14 PM »
I'm a little surprised to see that MRX has opted not to add the southern valley to the CWA-wide flood watches issued by HUN and FFC. It certainly looks to me like 3-5" of rain is happening in the next 2 days. Maybe the night shift will issue one.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015: 10.25 in.
Winters 2015-2019: basically nothing
Winter 2019-2020:
2/8/20: 4.25

Offline stayrose38

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Re: October 2021
« Reply #12 on: October 04, 2021, 03:40:29 PM »
I think sometimes MRX forgets the Chattanooga metro is even within their coverage area.

Offline dwagner88

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Re: October 2021
« Reply #13 on: October 04, 2021, 07:17:52 PM »
I think sometimes MRX forgets the Chattanooga metro is even within their coverage area.
Someone more knowledgeable can intervene if I’m wrong, but I’m pretty sure we used to have our own NWS forecast office in Chattanooga. When HUN was created, our office was closed and the remnants were split between FFC and MRX.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015: 10.25 in.
Winters 2015-2019: basically nothing
Winter 2019-2020:
2/8/20: 4.25

Offline stayrose38

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Re: October 2021
« Reply #14 on: October 04, 2021, 07:58:53 PM »
I'll google around for that.. but I think maybe you're right. I just know that during winter events, I see places like Dalton or Jackson Co. Ala getting winter storm warnings, while MRX is slow to pull the trigger. Feb '14, and '15 come to mind.... also, morning of Feb 8, 2020 should have met winter storm criteria (is it four or six inches in 12 hours?) as well. Anyway, for Metro Chattanooga, 4 inches in a short time is a 'Winter Storm' in my book, even if the temps are 33 and marginal.. :)  I had to drive to work in that little sneaky beast of a snow event and it was so dangerous. I think there might have been a late WWA for that from MRX..

 

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October 2021
by schneitzeit
[Today at 11:37:17 AM]
Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
by Curt
[Yesterday at 09:01:50 AM]