*

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length


Author Topic: September 2021  (Read 7700 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Bruce

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 9,471
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 3095
Re: September 2021
« Reply #15 on: September 02, 2021, 07:52:12 PM »
Signs that a merged Sonora/Bermuda Ridge is coming by mid-September.

Top analog is 2007. 

Longer range models suggest a hot mid to late September and most of October before the bottom falls in November.
yeah blind man could see that coming lol…  wouldn’t surprise  me see November even start off way above normal temps
« Last Edit: September 02, 2021, 08:52:08 PM by Bruce »
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Online StormNine

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 5,547
  • Location: Hopkinsville KY/ Bowling Green KY
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 230
Re: September 2021
« Reply #16 on: September 02, 2021, 08:43:19 PM »
hottest sept I remember was 2017, toward the end of the month family member had late september wedding planned because you know usually its nice that time of year, lol not 2017, it was 93 that day with muggy dew points, it was like that almost the whole month

2018 and 2019 were very hot and lasted that way until the 2nd week of October. 

The second half of Sept 2017 was hot, but the first half was refreshing.   

Offline Bruce

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 9,471
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 3095
Re: September 2021
« Reply #17 on: September 03, 2021, 02:52:17 PM »
the 12z euro is starting to look really toasty ::blowtorch::
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline snowdog

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 5,790
  • Location: Mt. Juliet, TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 275
Re: September 2021
« Reply #18 on: September 03, 2021, 03:26:01 PM »
the 12z euro is starting to look really toasty ::blowtorch::

I just looked. Highs in the low 80s/upper 70's and nighttime lows around 60, by the end of the run. Seems to be of the milquetoast variety of toasts.

Offline Bruce

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 9,471
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 3095
Re: September 2021
« Reply #19 on: September 03, 2021, 04:13:53 PM »
I just looked. Highs in the low 80s/upper 70's and nighttime lows around 60, by the end of the run. Seems to be of the milquetoast variety of toasts.
end run ridge sets on top us… heading into late September
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Online StormNine

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 5,547
  • Location: Hopkinsville KY/ Bowling Green KY
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 230
Re: September 2021
« Reply #20 on: September 09, 2021, 11:23:15 AM »
[ Guests cannot view attachments ]

I am going to say it as clear as I possibly can, this pattern we are heading into mid-month and will likely last through the entire 2nd half of the month just SUCKS. 

This is 2005, 2007, 2016, and 2018 all rolled up into one pile of immense suck.   That Gulf of Alaska/West Canada trough, the higher heights along the Aleutian island chain, and the ridging that would probably send the 90s or at least upper 80s well into eastern parts of Canada.  The only somewhat silver lining is that the worst of the heat will be to our north.   

To make matters worse we develop a weakness over the Gulf of Mexico which means situations like last years Hurricane Sandy where you trap/slow down a tropical system underneath a ridge become more likely.

Just like the years mentioned you will probably need a tropical system or a powerful low-pressure system/severe weather to break this pattern sometime later in the Fall.   

Online StormNine

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 5,547
  • Location: Hopkinsville KY/ Bowling Green KY
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 230
Re: September 2021
« Reply #21 on: September 09, 2021, 11:27:07 AM »
While it will provide much-needed relief for the Pacific NW/ID Panhandle anytime that ridge pushes west into the center of the country it will throw drier eastwardly winds into Nevada/eastern California which is not good considering what is going on in that region. 

Online StormNine

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 5,547
  • Location: Hopkinsville KY/ Bowling Green KY
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 230
Re: September 2021
« Reply #22 on: September 10, 2021, 05:25:33 PM »
It still looks to suck.  2005, 2007, and 2018 look to be analogs.  Torching probably through the first week of October is likely.   

Offline Dyersburg Weather

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,813
  • Location: North of 40
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 748
Re: September 2021
« Reply #23 on: September 11, 2021, 08:35:20 AM »
It still looks to suck.  2005, 2007, and 2018 look to be analogs.  Torching probably through the first week of October is likely.
I thought we banned you.

Online StormNine

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 5,547
  • Location: Hopkinsville KY/ Bowling Green KY
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 230
Re: September 2021
« Reply #24 on: September 11, 2021, 10:39:28 AM »
I thought we banned you.

I always come back just like the Terminator or like certain STD's.     

Offline snowdog

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 5,790
  • Location: Mt. Juliet, TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 275
Re: September 2021
« Reply #25 on: September 11, 2021, 07:08:04 PM »
I thought we banned you.

He had to translate Bruce's posts for 6 months to get back on.

Offline Curt

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 8,725
  • Location: Arlington, TN(Memphis suburb)
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 449
Re: September 2021
« Reply #26 on: September 13, 2021, 04:02:39 PM »
The first real cold front for meteorological fall looks to be teed up in about 10 days. Pretty decent agreement amongst ensembles and globals for a potent cool down with a real fall feel. Who says yes?

Offline Dyersburg Weather

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,813
  • Location: North of 40
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 748
Re: September 2021
« Reply #27 on: September 13, 2021, 04:12:23 PM »
The first real cold front for meteorological fall looks to be teed up in about 10 days. Pretty decent agreement amongst ensembles and globals for a potent cool down with a real fall feel. Who says yes?
  I was about to post the same thing. Looks promising.

Offline NismoWx

  • Severe Thunderstorm
  • ****
  • Posts: 433
  • Location: Walter Hill
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 966
Re: September 2021
« Reply #28 on: September 13, 2021, 06:13:36 PM »
The first real cold front for meteorological fall looks to be teed up in about 10 days. Pretty decent agreement amongst ensembles and globals for a potent cool down with a real fall feel. Who says yes?
Just in time for deer season opener!

Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk


Offline Bruce

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 9,471
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 3095
Re: September 2021
« Reply #29 on: September 13, 2021, 07:12:38 PM »
The first real cold front for meteorological fall looks to be teed up in about 10 days. Pretty decent agreement amongst ensembles and globals for a potent cool down with a real fall feel. Who says yes?
its always about 10 days out … lol
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

 

*

Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
by Thundersnow
[Today at 05:43:39 PM]
December 2021
by StormNine
[Today at 03:16:11 PM]
November 2021
by Dyersburg Weather
[December 02, 2021, 06:04:27 AM]