Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022

[schneitzeit]

Holding myself accountable: here's how I did last year.
Didn't hurt me too much to go straight Nina, which is pretty much what I did. Would have never expected the polar air over the Southern Plains in February.

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Here's what happened:

[Dyersburg Weather]

Ryan Vaughn's winter outlook.

http://ryansmorningblog.blogspot.com/

[Nashville_Wx]

Here are my thoughts on this winter:

Good:
1. Nina will help weaken the polar vortex and bring more chances of cold air coming south
2. Increased precipitation for the Tennessee Valley/ reduced likelihood of a suppressed dry pattern
3. Favorable storm track over TN Valley if Polar Jet dips far south

Bad:
1. Enhanced severe risk for mid-South and Lower MS Delta
2. Warmer than average winter + below normal snowfall for much of the country
3. Less influential MJO early thanks to moderate Nina
4. Possible delayed spring with hard freezes well into March

I expect more chances for winter weather down in the Tennessee Valley later in the winter. It may be somewhat like last winter, with a few blasts of Arctic air making it very far south into the Southern Plains while the Bermuda High keeps the Southeast Coast warmer and drier than normal.

I think December will be very warm for much of the U.S. with few exceptions. The Northern Plains will be playing catch-up with seasonal snowfall in the second half of winter. Lake-effect snowfall may be amplified as a result of frequent storms tracking from the Plains to Quebec, bringing a nice NW flow over the lakes.

Most of the larger snowfall seasons come in the late Winer here. We get our wind in the 2nd half with Feb March brining most monsters.

[schneitzeit]

Ryan Vaughn's winter outlook.

http://ryansmorningblog.blogspot.com/

Thanks for sharing. From his blog:

"So, what's going to happen in Winter 2021/2022? After looking at all of this data (and much more), here are my bullet points for the Winter of 2021/2022:
Big arctic outbreaks are possible in December. Overnight lows in the teens are likely and single-digit lows are possible
Sleet and freezing rain is more likely than snow this winter.
1 decent snow event. 2-3 sleet and freezing rain events.
Flooding rains are possible, especially in February. Magnitude is still questionable, but seeing 5-6" of rainfall in February is not out of the question.
February will have above average temperatures.
Big swings in temperatures are likely through the winter.
1-2 Severe weather events are possible with damaging winds. Maybe even tornadoes."

[Golfmankevin]

Thanks for sharing. From his blog:

"So, what's going to happen in Winter 2021/2022? After looking at all of this data (and much more), here are my bullet points for the Winter of 2021/2022:
Big arctic outbreaks are possible in December. Overnight lows in the teens are likely and single-digit lows are possible
Sleet and freezing rain is more likely than snow this winter.
1 decent snow event. 2-3 sleet and freezing rain events.
Flooding rains are possible, especially in February. Magnitude is still questionable, but seeing 5-6" of rainfall in February is not out of the question.
February will have above average temperatures.
Big swings in temperatures are likely through the winter.
1-2 Severe weather events are possible with damaging winds. Maybe even tornadoes."

I know Ryan Vaughan pretty good, but trust me when I say he hates winter lol. Unless there is a monumental change, there will be no big arctic outbreaks in December imo. I cant predict the future. No one can, but it will be most likely after Christmas before we have a realistic chance at cold weather here. Like they say, all it takes is one event

[Nash_LSU]

Thanks for sharing. From his blog:

"So, what's going to happen in Winter 2021/2022? After looking at all of this data (and much more), here are my bullet points for the Winter of 2021/2022:
Big arctic outbreaks are possible in December. Overnight lows in the teens are likely and single-digit lows are possible
Sleet and freezing rain is more likely than snow this winter.
1 decent snow event. 2-3 sleet and freezing rain events.
Flooding rains are possible, especially in February. Magnitude is still questionable, but seeing 5-6" of rainfall in February is not out of the question.
February will have above average temperatures.
Big swings in temperatures are likely through the winter.
1-2 Severe weather events are possible with damaging winds. Maybe even tornadoes."

Sooo...like most recent winters then?

[mamMATTus]

Why are replies turned off for the December thread? Need to keep our eyes on next Sunday.

[StormNine]

Why are replies turned off for the December thread? Need to keep our eyes on next Sunday.

Not sure, even tomorrow could be sneaky in West TN.  The threat for next weekend is something to watch as well. 

[Thundersnow]

Why are replies turned off for the December thread? Need to keep our eyes on next Sunday.

It was locked.  I doubt that was intentional. I unlocked it.

[Coach B]

Good stuff from grit on the MJO progression over the next few weeks:

https://twitter.com/griteater/status/1470018152373313540

He mentions 96, 02, and 2018 as the closest matches. All featured some deep cold into our area. 96 was a good snow year, whereas 02 and 2018 provided Deep South storms that we mostly whiffed on.

[Dyersburg Weather]

Good stuff from grit on the MJO progression over the next few weeks:

https://twitter.com/griteater/status/1470018152373313540

He mentions 96, 02, and 2018 as the closest matches. All featured some deep cold into our area. 96 was a good snow year, whereas 02 and 2018 provided Deep South storms that we mostly whiffed on.

Here in NW Tn in 2018 ,  we had about 10 days that would compete against a 70s winter. It stayed below freezing for over a week with two big snows.

[Clarksville Snowman]

Feeling good about end of the month into January.

[Golfmankevin]

Here in NW Tn in 2018 ,  we had about 10 days that would compete against a 70s winter. It stayed below freezing for over a week with two big snows.

It was cold in 2018 and 1996 but 02 wasn't that cold a winter if I remember. Highs in the teens in 2018 and my car's battery shut down on me lol.

[Coach B]

It was cold in 2018 and 1996 but 02 wasn't that cold a winter if I remember. Highs in the teens in 2018 and my car's battery shut down on me lol.

Looks like 02 had a solid two week cold spell from Christmas thru the first week of January. But like many cold spells of the last 20 years, there was virtually nothing to show for it.

[Curt]

There is potential for a cold January and February given the current MJO and teleconnections. MJO should be moving through colder phases 8-1-2 during heart of winter. Teleconnections now favor a negative EPO/AO/NAO/WPO which all support cold central and east- and perhaps the entire CONUS. The PNA which is off the charts negative right now and likely a contributor along with the Phase 6 MJO for the mild December- should go weakly negative over time- which should loosen the SER. Playing devils advocate, the east based Nina does not favor cold this too far south however, the Nina is probably peaking now and should weaken.

Looking at analogs from past winter storms given these parameters, an arctic air mass bumping up along a SER should provide overrunning at some point somewhere. The Jan 1951 storm does line up with ENSO, teleconnections, etc. I'm not saying it will repeat here, but its on the table.