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Author Topic: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022  (Read 16769 times)

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Offline Bruce

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #150 on: October 29, 2021, 09:32:32 AM »
Seems kind of early for that, no? Wonder what winters look like in DJF that had significant disturbances to the PV in November.
pretty much only thing i could find to a early attack on the PV was, winter early start but fairly quick ending, so we need to score early this season . because after mid january, going be tough. Even early start to winter there still some uncerntanity if the cold even comes down this side of the globe.   ::coffee:: ::coffee::
« Last Edit: October 29, 2021, 09:43:06 AM by Bruce »
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Curt

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #151 on: October 29, 2021, 09:40:36 AM »
Seems kind of early for that, no? Wonder what winters look like in DJF that had significant disturbances to the PV in November.

PV is getting warm and looks to have another significant warming later in November.  With a weak PV, negative QBO, and a weak to low end moderate La Nina should open the door to some serious cold intrusions into the middle of the country. I think there will be some opportunities for some cold- possibly serious cold at times -in Nov-Jan.

EDIT worth noting the CFS2 did an about face since August for Nov-Jan. Its ripe for arctic air masses to come southward- and there's a SE ridge too.
« Last Edit: October 29, 2021, 10:00:49 AM by Curt »

Offline Bruce

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #152 on: October 29, 2021, 10:25:49 AM »
PV is getting warm and looks to have another significant warming later in November.  With a weak PV, negative QBO, and a weak to low end moderate La Nina should open the door to some serious cold intrusions into the middle of the country. I think there will be some opportunities for some cold- possibly serious cold at times -in Nov-Jan.

EDIT worth noting the CFS2 did an about face since August for Nov-Jan. Its ripe for arctic air masses to come southward- and there's a SE ridge too.
classic air mass clash setting up long range, where the battle groud is, who knows ::coffee::
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Woodvegas

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #153 on: November 13, 2021, 11:19:11 AM »
Link to DT's 2021-2022 Winter Forecast. Seems like the strength of the La Nina will be critical. I hope he is right and it will be mostly weak.

https://onedrive.live.com/?authkey=%21AHiE1ogY%5FofHRAg&cid=1CA2F9A16D1A6375&id=1CA2F9A16D1A6375%2127987&parId=1CA2F9A16D1A6375%2124503&o=OneUp
"Luck enters into every contingency. You are a fool if you forget it -- and a greater fool if you count upon it." -- Phyllis Bottome

Offline StormNine

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #154 on: November 13, 2021, 12:47:47 PM »
classic air mass clash setting up long range, where the battle groud is, who knows ::coffee::

My guess would be that it will alternate between the Northern Plains and the Ozarks with possible short-lived entrances into KY/TN.  This winter does look likely to be more classic Ninaish compared to last winter.   

Offline StormNine

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Offline StormNine

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #156 on: November 21, 2021, 11:17:08 AM »
For some good news:

GaWX on another forum did post that the MJO progression is pretty much on point with 2017 so there is that. 


Offline Matthew

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #157 on: November 27, 2021, 12:17:54 AM »
Well reading some positive thoughts going into December.  From meteorologists that are solid & actually seldom go with cold forecast.  Seems things are lining up for a POSSIBLE cold wx pattern with a POSSIBLE southern storm track for December.  🙏🏻😱

Offline Nashville_Wx

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #158 on: November 27, 2021, 11:27:47 AM »
Winter is localized in TN. It doesnt mattern how GOOD things look or BAD. Systems come in and lay small areas of accumulating snow down. There isnt much more to it than this. We can talk about how the overall season is going to shape up, but its pointless. I rather talk about a system that IS developing than speculate Winter will be good or bad IMBY. Nothing screams block buster winter , yet nothing screams bad to me. Would it matter what models say now anyways? Ill sit back until we have legit threat or ***** says something stupid.  ::shrug:: ::rofl::


Offline Matthew

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #159 on: November 27, 2021, 11:42:10 AM »
Winter is localized in TN. It doesnt mattern how GOOD things look or BAD. Systems come in and lay small areas of accumulating snow down. There isnt much more to it than this. We can talk about how the overall season is going to shape up, but its pointless. I rather talk about a system that IS developing than speculate Winter will be good or bad IMBY. Nothing screams block buster winter , yet nothing screams bad to me. Would it matter what models say now anyways? Ill sit back until we have legit threat or ***** says something stupid.  ::shrug:: ::rofl::

True.  Was just passing on what a couple of Mets were feeling for TN. If we get snow awesome.  If we don’t that’s ok also.  I’m still recovering from Covid so sledding is not happening for me unfortunately.  I would enjoy seeing it & watching my kids sled in it.

Offline StormNine

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #160 on: November 27, 2021, 02:46:16 PM »
Someone keeps putting their 2011-2012 reruns in our December to remember pattern. They need to stop that before I walk up the stairs and ground them.   

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #161 on: November 27, 2021, 11:57:46 PM »
Here are my thoughts on this winter:

Good:
1. Nina will help weaken the polar vortex and bring more chances of cold air coming south
2. Increased precipitation for the Tennessee Valley/ reduced likelihood of a suppressed dry pattern
3. Favorable storm track over TN Valley if Polar Jet dips far south

Bad:
1. Enhanced severe risk for mid-South and Lower MS Delta
2. Warmer than average winter + below normal snowfall for much of the country
3. Less influential MJO early thanks to moderate Nina
4. Possible delayed spring with hard freezes well into March

I expect more chances for winter weather down in the Tennessee Valley later in the winter. It may be somewhat like last winter, with a few blasts of Arctic air making it very far south into the Southern Plains while the Bermuda High keeps the Southeast Coast warmer and drier than normal.

I think December will be very warm for much of the U.S. with few exceptions. The Northern Plains will be playing catch-up with seasonal snowfall in the second half of winter. Lake-effect snowfall may be amplified as a result of frequent storms tracking from the Plains to Quebec, bringing a nice NW flow over the lakes.
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #162 on: November 27, 2021, 11:59:35 PM »
General

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Snowfall

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Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline StormNine

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #163 on: November 28, 2021, 08:13:31 AM »
The thoughts that I posted on page 8 remain the same.

Above average for most everyone minus the possible exceptions of the Pacific NW and Interior Alaska.   

The pattern being a mix of zonal flow, merged ridging in the SW/SE, and the occasional modified cold air trough.  I do think that the Central/Eastern US faces a 2 to possibly as much as 3-4 week period of actual winter at some point (I would guess maybe late Dec-Jan).  Very similar to 1999-00 or even a slightly less intense version of last winter.

Offline joemomma

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #164 on: November 30, 2021, 01:14:59 PM »
My annual winter call:

Throw your LR models and analogs out, again.  Amazingly enough, we still can't predict the weather (reliably) more than a few days out.  We can look at trends and tendencies, but to be able to say it's going to do this or that a couple months from now, nope.

This winter: might snow, might not.  We'll have some cold days and some warm days.  Some wet, some dry.

In all seriousness, I have a gut feeling that we'll have a "decent" winter.  It only takes one good storm or two to make it decent.  Last year surprised me (for the good) and I'll take that again (minus the ice this time). 

 

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