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Author Topic: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022  (Read 16771 times)

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Offline schneitzeit

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Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #136 on: October 21, 2021, 08:50:17 AM »
The 2019 basketball game at ole miss, they called a mississippi player for charging into Grant. Debris flew onto the court. Doesn't justify any of it, I just made a joke about how many times the NOAA forecast would flip flop. Actually I was there in the top deck in the north end zone, had not the fans thrown stuff on the field I actually think the Vols may have pulled it off. If you get the ball back with a packed house and the Band and Pep band still there the energy is 10 times what it was. Who knows it might not have helped but it couldn't have hurt.

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #137 on: October 21, 2021, 06:41:52 PM »
Here's our Nina, served hot and fresh:

NOAA's winter wx forecast. Seems legit. Just one of those winters.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline Nash_LSU

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #138 on: October 22, 2021, 08:10:23 AM »
Here's our Nina, served hot and fresh:

NOAA's winter wx forecast. Seems legit. Just one of those winters.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2

Warm and wet. Lovely. Might have to finally buy that SAD light box I've been eyeing the past few winters.

Offline snowdog

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #139 on: October 22, 2021, 08:14:31 AM »
Here's our Nina, served hot and fresh:

NOAA's winter wx forecast. Seems legit. Just one of those winters.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2

Ahh, what do they know. I just bought a couple new plastic sleds after the kids busted up the last ones with all the sleet sledding last Feb. Feeling confident.

Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #140 on: October 22, 2021, 09:01:43 AM »
Their forecast will change as soon as it gets cold. ::rofl:: We will get snow!

Offline snowdog

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #141 on: October 23, 2021, 08:55:02 AM »
How am I reading big snows in the forecast for Tahoe on Twitter before NashvilleWx pronounces it here? You're slipping NashvilleWx.

Offline StormNine

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #142 on: October 23, 2021, 01:02:29 PM »
Ahh, what do they know. I just bought a couple new plastic sleds after the kids busted up the last ones with all the sleet sledding last Feb. Feeling confident.

Kinda looks like my outlook except replace the below-average with just average.  If our air becomes Pacific in nature and our snow-cover in North America continues to suck then I wouldn't be surprised if we watch North Dakota have another warm/dry winter.     

Offline mempho

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #143 on: October 25, 2021, 12:17:52 PM »
How am I reading big snows in the forecast for Tahoe on Twitter before NashvilleWx pronounces it here? You're slipping NashvilleWx.

You didn't ask me but the drought in the west has been key.  Things could change but there are two current trends that are working against our chances of a blockbuster winter and the combination could completely ruin winter.

1) The strenghtening of La Nina from a weak phase into a stronger Nina.
2) The alleviation of drought in the West.  If the current parade of stroms is an isolated event, it may not have much effect on our winter.  However, if an overall wetter pattern commences in the west, then it may ruin our chances.  The alleviation of short-term drought parameters is much more important in this context than long-term parameters. 


Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #144 on: October 26, 2021, 12:42:49 PM »
On this day last year oklahoma city and points west were getting a early season ice storm. I had forgotten about that until I seen somebody talking about it on a weather forum. Hope old man winter isn't dull at least make the pattern interesting to watch. ::popcorn:: ::snowman::

Offline Curt

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #145 on: October 26, 2021, 03:36:10 PM »
The PV is undergoing significant warming with another warming forecast in November. Regardless of split or displacement, a warming or weak PV means its able to stretch like a rubber band when called upon by other forces- and usually the mid latitudes see the result 30-60 days later. This scenario vs the 2011-12 winter where the PV was cold and wrapped up tight = big difference. I would guess there is potential for December into mid January to have some arctic outbreaks come down through the central plains. MJO may determine position of the SE ridge and where boundaries set up.

Offline southaven

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #146 on: October 27, 2021, 02:12:08 PM »
NOAA long range forecast will flop more than a Ole Miss football player. It's being widely reported the new mascot name is the Fainting Goats!!!! ::rofl::

Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #147 on: October 27, 2021, 07:28:17 PM »

I was there, yes Tennessee flopped a few times after you all did it several. You really saying we flopped as much? Let it go dude, I was making reference to how much the NOAA long range would flip. You all won, be happy.
« Last Edit: October 27, 2021, 07:31:52 PM by Clarksville Snowman »

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #148 on: October 27, 2021, 11:45:00 PM »
I was there, yes Tennessee flopped a few times after you all did it several. You really saying we flopped as much? Let it go dude, I was making reference to how much the NOAA long range would flip. You all won, be happy.

You really rustled the Ole Miss Rebel Landshark Blackbears with that one bro
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline snowdog

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #149 on: October 29, 2021, 08:15:11 AM »
The PV is undergoing significant warming with another warming forecast in November. Regardless of split or displacement, a warming or weak PV means its able to stretch like a rubber band when called upon by other forces- and usually the mid latitudes see the result 30-60 days later. This scenario vs the 2011-12 winter where the PV was cold and wrapped up tight = big difference. I would guess there is potential for December into mid January to have some arctic outbreaks come down through the central plains. MJO may determine position of the SE ridge and where boundaries set up.

Seems kind of early for that, no? Wonder what winters look like in DJF that had significant disturbances to the PV in November.

 

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