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Author Topic: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022  (Read 16772 times)

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Offline Matthew

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #120 on: October 12, 2021, 08:17:08 AM »
The pacific is hot mess. Gulf Alaska low stubborn as I ever seen it. And with a moderate Nina starting be real possibility, any se ridge in place it’s going be cutter city this winter … lakes cutters here we come .

It’s not even November and you are already Debbie downer.  Wx changes all the time.  Looking at long range and seasonal is futile.  Just enjoy the wx we have like this weekend and next is going to be fabulous!

Offline Bruce

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #121 on: October 12, 2021, 08:23:14 AM »
It’s not even November and you are already Debbie downer.  Wx changes all the time.  Looking at long range and seasonal is futile.  Just enjoy the wx we have like this weekend and next is going to be fabulous!
im enjoying weather we have , that’s way I look at this. Enjoy one day time. But I just implying what I see future pattern taken shape. The pacific is a hot mess. Montana and Wyoming are going be the big winners this winter …
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline snowdog

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #122 on: October 12, 2021, 08:56:18 AM »
Got my first snowfall of the season, sort of. Stayed in Flagstaff lastnight and woke up to a nice little coating this morning. Still flurrying.
 ::snowman::

Offline Beth

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #123 on: October 12, 2021, 09:19:01 AM »
Daughter in Idaho Falls, Idaho sent this to us this morning.

Offline Curt

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #124 on: October 12, 2021, 09:28:32 AM »
We are now expecting a Strong La-Nina when combined with the Gulf of Alaska low I think we may finally see a winter that acts like its ENSO.

I do still think we see a 2-4 week period of winter goodness with the active northern stream plus the potential for some blocking.  Outside of super ULL's or a March/April Hail Mary, this will have to be our window to make something happen. The mid to late January 2000 period comes to mind as a prime example and analog.  Other than that we are probably going to be warm to the core as the Bermuda Ridge or Bermuda/Sonora ridge merger clings to us like bees cling to honey. 

Severe weather events like the ones we are looking at this week are also going to be on the table at times and in the same general area from the Southern Plains over towards the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes.  MO/IL/IN/N KY may have a greater tornado threat this winter than TN and points south at times this winter.

(Attachment Link) (Attachment Link)
The CFS is probably too low on the ENSO chart. Most models are clustered around -1.0. Even the CFS doesn’t get below -1.5. Last year, it was predicting a strong Niña as well which never materialized. I think low end moderate Niña is most likely.

Offline Thundersnow

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Offline snowdog

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #126 on: October 14, 2021, 10:49:54 PM »
Daughter in Idaho Falls, Idaho sent this to us this morning.

Wow. Went to Grand Canyon South Rim Tuesday and it pretty much snowed most of the day at 33 degrees and ended up with a few inches. We stuck it out and got some breaks in the clouds toward the end of the day, so it wasnt a total loss, but heck I didnt even know it snowed like that at the Canyon.

Offline Curt

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #127 on: October 15, 2021, 09:01:50 AM »

CFS2 when adjusted to current climatology is less aggressive on the La Niña. Even so it’s far more aggressive than other models. If the La Niña is going to get as cold as the CFS2 then start warming around the new year, it’s going to have to have a rapid cooling. Looks more weak to low end moderate than strong.

Offline Bruce

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #128 on: October 19, 2021, 08:59:05 AM »
NOAA put out their upcoming winter forecast … much above average temps east of the Rockies … below out west northwest .classic Nina look
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Matthew

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #129 on: October 19, 2021, 10:52:17 AM »
NOAA put out their upcoming winter forecast … much above average temps east of the Rockies … below out west northwest .classic Nina look

As we all know.  NOAA will change it a lot.  Long range forecasting is like a lottery. 

Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #130 on: October 19, 2021, 11:27:37 AM »
NOAA long range forecast will flop more than a Ole Miss football player. It's being widely reported the new mascot name is the Fainting Goats!!!! ::rofl::

Offline snowdog

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #131 on: October 19, 2021, 06:03:45 PM »
NOAA long range forecast will flop more than a Ole Miss football player. It's being widely reported the new mascot name is the Fainting Goats!!!! ::rofl::

My man....   ::blowtorch::

Offline SouthavenSpotter

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #132 on: October 20, 2021, 06:06:20 PM »
NOAA long range forecast will flop more than a Ole Miss football player. It's being widely reported the new mascot name is the Fainting Goats!!!! ::rofl::

https://mobile.twitter.com/SidelineCFB/status/1449572254782828544

Offline Matthew

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #133 on: October 20, 2021, 06:41:45 PM »

Offline Crockett

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #134 on: October 20, 2021, 07:43:30 PM »

 

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