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Author Topic: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022  (Read 9912 times)

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Offline Bruce

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #75 on: September 28, 2021, 04:13:40 AM »
Alright- I’ll bite because- why not?

Super blockbuster storm in our region at some point in the coming years- as in, all time 24-hour snow records will be smashed.

Why you say?

Warm season storm systems have been trending toward high end rainfall totals. The climate is amped, and the Gulf is juiced. Just a matter of time before we thread a needle and get a polar high, and a slow moving super low grinds its way along the Gulf Coast and crushes the state.

Mempho, you have my back?
they way you started out putting this, thought you were talking about another type storm system besides a winter one.  ::popcorn::
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline dwagner88

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #76 on: September 28, 2021, 08:46:03 AM »
Alright- I’ll bite because- why not?

Super blockbuster storm in our region at some point in the coming years- as in, all time 24-hour snow records will be smashed.

Why you say?

Warm season storm systems have been trending toward high end rainfall totals. The climate is amped, and the Gulf is juiced. Just a matter of time before we thread a needle and get a polar high, and a slow moving super low grinds its way along the Gulf Coast and crushes the state.

Mempho, you have my back?
The west half of the state wasn't too far off from that last year. Just needed deeper cold air to stop sleet contamination. For me, I think the more likely scenario for crazy totals is an overrunning event lasting a day or two being wrapped up with a big gulf low riding a stalled front.
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015: 10.25 in.
Winters 2015-2019: basically nothing
Winter 2019-2020:
2/8/20: 4.25

Offline Bruce

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #77 on: September 28, 2021, 08:57:57 AM »
The west half of the state wasn't too far off from that last year. Just needed deeper cold air to stop sleet contamination. For me, I think the more likely scenario for crazy totals is an overrunning event lasting a day or two being wrapped up with a big gulf low riding a stalled front.
those gulf lows are starting get few and far in between….
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Drifter

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #78 on: September 28, 2021, 12:04:43 PM »
I like the way those snow contours look. I believe we may be in for an encore performance this year.

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I’ll take 2003-2004 please and thank you! Never mind I was thinking about 2002-2003 lol
To enjoy things in life that are good, you first must endure things that suck!
Bring on the snow baby!!!

Offline snowdog

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #79 on: September 28, 2021, 02:41:49 PM »
BAM has released their winter forecast. Looks like equal chances in our area on temps and snowfall. Slighty above avg for precip in general.

https://www.twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1442933980223864836

Offline Matthew

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #80 on: September 28, 2021, 04:18:42 PM »
BAM has released their winter forecast. Looks like equal chances in our area on temps and snowfall. Slighty above avg for precip in general.

https://www.twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1442933980223864836

I will take my chances with that.  Hopefully be well enough to sled with kiddos again this winter. 

Offline Curt

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Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #81 on: September 28, 2021, 05:13:01 PM »
https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

This is Judah Cohen's website. There are a couple of good videos on the left thumbnail. He and several others completed reputable studies about climate change- and that most of the warming on the globe has taken place in the arctic. The warm arctic leads to a weak PV, which is stretched (not even necessarily split) much more over the last few years than before meaning North American winters are becoming more volatile, more snowy, and even colder in some locations- chiefly the Canadian prairies and the north and central plains into New England. Snowfall in these locations has been increasing- and in some cases dramatically. It will have implications for our region as well being this "far north". The 1990's was an era with the least disruption of the PV and less snowfall ensued. The paper def shows a link between the warming arctic and volatility in North America and Northern Eurasia for the last 10-15 years. IMBY- there has been a noticeable uptick in snowfall from about 2008 to now with a couple of poor winter examples thrown in, too.
« Last Edit: September 28, 2021, 06:42:41 PM by Curt »

Offline Bruce

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #82 on: September 28, 2021, 05:25:59 PM »
BAM has released their winter forecast. Looks like equal chances in our area on temps and snowfall. Slighty above avg for precip in general.

https://www.twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1442933980223864836
bout par for the course….
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Matthew

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #83 on: September 28, 2021, 05:30:42 PM »
bout par for the course….


Your new name is Bruce Downer


Offline Bruce

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #84 on: September 28, 2021, 06:16:21 PM »

Your new name is Bruce Downer
just stating maps shown by bama wx  look about right to me…  they are not going out to far on a limb… can’t blame them.  We need that pesky gulf of Alaska low removed, the pacific what’s been the problem last several years , couple of those years could have been a great winter if pacific would have been favorable to us.
« Last Edit: September 28, 2021, 06:39:32 PM by Bruce »
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Curt

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #85 on: September 28, 2021, 06:45:11 PM »
BAM has released their winter forecast. Looks like equal chances in our area on temps and snowfall. Slighty above avg for precip in general.

https://www.twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1442933980223864836
I like how they have a CYA “risk bust” map. Way to say “but we told you it could happen”.

Offline Matthew

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #86 on: September 28, 2021, 07:15:49 PM »
just stating maps shown by bama wx  look about right to me…  they are not going out to far on a limb… can’t blame them.  We need that pesky gulf of Alaska low removed, the pacific what’s been the problem last several years , couple of those years could have been a great winter if pacific would have been favorable to us.

Understand but equal chances are positive to me.  I thought last winter was great.  A week of snow and sledding was wonderful to me. 

Offline Bruce

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #87 on: September 28, 2021, 07:37:52 PM »
Understand but equal chances are positive to me.  I thought last winter was great.  A week of snow and sledding was wonderful to me.
yeah I broke the ole sled out myself that snowy week. I felt like kid again lol sledding with the grandkids ….
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #88 on: September 29, 2021, 06:54:19 AM »
yeah I broke the ole sled out myself that snowy week. I felt like kid again lol sledding with the grandkids ….

All things considered, last winter was good. It was the most snow I had seen in a single winter in 10 years.
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline bugalou

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #89 on: October 02, 2021, 01:13:33 PM »
I am not going to produce a fancy graphic or think about this too much, but I will throw in my  ::twocents:: on how I think this winter will go based on the pattern thus far from now back to the summer of 2020.

I see the western half of the state as slightly above normal with temps and precipitation. Eastern much of the same, just a few days behind and dryer.  We will get semi frequent cold shots that are transient, but will stick around long enough to perhaps squeeze some overrunning winter precip in the west.  The east will have to rely on clippers for any snow chances (not counting if the PV sets up in a good location as I am about to talk about).  I think we will see another polar vortex ejection to the lower 48 again this year but I am not going to try and predict where.  Hopefully it plummets down the middle of the country like last year and puts the most of the state at the base of the trough where pacific systems can train trough, but the PV could end up anywhere.  I think it will be east of the rockies at minimum with the western US likely staying warm/dry.

Basically I am seeing a repeat of the last 3 winters, with maybe a few more cold shots.
My apologies for not preparing this better based on linked data.  I hate doing that, but I wanted to contribute my thoughts, and have just been too busy with work to follow the weather too closely the past couple months. I am sure some of you noticed my absence here.  :)
« Last Edit: October 02, 2021, 01:31:22 PM by bugalou »

 

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Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
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