*

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length


Author Topic: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022  (Read 23515 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline schneitzeit

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,077
  • Location: Oswego, N.Y.
  • Tornado Alley moved SE.
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2716
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #60 on: September 19, 2021, 03:17:23 PM »
he is actually telling truth… he moved off to upstate new York for school… right in the heart of the big snow belt.

I'll keep y'all posted if you're interested about the weather up here. First snow, biggest snow, etc.

I'll be in TN for all the holidays so I'll never become a stranger.
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline Clay

  • Moderator Supporter
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 5,266
  • Location: Brentwood/Creive Hall
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 859
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #61 on: September 19, 2021, 05:47:10 PM »
I'll keep y'all posted if you're interested about the weather up here. First snow, biggest snow, etc.

I'll be in TN for all the holidays so I'll never become a stranger.
140" per year. Average.  ::wow::

Offline StormNine

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 5,696
  • Location: Hopkinsville KY/ Bowling Green KY
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 243
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #62 on: September 19, 2021, 06:28:03 PM »
That Gulf of Alaska low is probably going to make things more typical La-Nina'ish at times during the fall/winter season.   

Offline Nashville_Wx

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 5,009
  • Location: Bellevue,TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 302
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #63 on: September 19, 2021, 07:44:24 PM »
Ill come visit. We can go to the Tug Hill Region. I am in Buffalo all week. May be in Rochester later next month. Otherwise head East and meet me in HN. We got this covered. Chase some nice convection coming off the lake! Thundersnow!!


Offline schneitzeit

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,077
  • Location: Oswego, N.Y.
  • Tornado Alley moved SE.
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2716
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #64 on: September 19, 2021, 08:38:02 PM »
Ill come visit. We can go to the Tug Hill Region. I am in Buffalo all week. May be in Rochester later next month. Otherwise head East and meet me in HN. We got this covered. Chase some nice convection coming off the lake! Thundersnow!!
Heck yeah man, if you wind up here hit me up.
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline mamMATTus

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,624
  • Location: Chattanooga
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 202
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #65 on: September 23, 2021, 12:11:41 PM »
I definitely missed this. I don't think I buy it.

[ Guests cannot view attachments ]


Offline joemomma

  • Severe Thunderstorm
  • ****
  • Posts: 474
  • Location: Putnam County
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 105
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #66 on: September 23, 2021, 01:19:16 PM »
I definitely missed this. I don't think I buy it.

(Attachment Link)

I'd buy that for a dollar!

Offline Drifter

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,488
  • Location: Indianapolis IN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1655
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #67 on: September 26, 2021, 07:46:10 AM »
Just letting y’all know I’m still here  ::snowman::
To enjoy things in life that are good, you first must endure things that suck!
Bring on the snow baby!!!

Offline Bruce

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 9,737
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 3301
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #68 on: September 26, 2021, 09:14:26 AM »
Just letting y’all know I’m still here  ::snowman::
cool bro… hope hear from u within next 4 months Or so….
« Last Edit: September 26, 2021, 09:42:45 AM by Bruce »
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline schneitzeit

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,077
  • Location: Oswego, N.Y.
  • Tornado Alley moved SE.
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2716
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #69 on: September 26, 2021, 11:53:21 AM »
Just letting y’all know I’m still here  ::snowman::

'Sup Drifter!
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline mempho

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,301
  • Location: Collierville
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 836
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #70 on: September 27, 2021, 09:57:39 PM »
Now the models show a solid La-Nina at least the strength of last year.  A big change in the ENSO forecast as what was once a Neutral year now becomes a La-Nina.

With the mega-drought out west and all that heat energy, a strong Bermuda ridge, warm arctic, and possibly the Sunspots awakening this upcoming winter is looking quite 2011-12 ish.   

The early analogs are:
1999-00
2001-02
2005-06
2011-12
2016-17

Can we say yuck!!
2012 was the super El Nino and the drought busted in the west, if I'm correct. Both of these are horrible for snow here.

La Nina's are generally not great for show but a LA Nina with a West Coast drought and a - NAO are usually golden for snow here. We did miss in 2014 but it was very cold.  1985 was the winter previous to thar, I believe.

If we have a west coast drought, I like a good winter.  In addition, there's the Biblical explanation...the great reserves of cold and snow are reserved for times of trouble!

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk



Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline mempho

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,301
  • Location: Collierville
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 836
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #71 on: September 27, 2021, 10:00:04 PM »


Weatherbell Prelim Winter Forecast for temps and snowfall.

Their analogs are 2003-04, 2005-06, 2008-09, 2017-18, 2020-21.
I like the way those snow contours look. I believe we may be in for an encore performance this year.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk



Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline mempho

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,301
  • Location: Collierville
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 836
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #72 on: September 27, 2021, 10:03:00 PM »
If the drought out west holds, you're going to get some extreme dumps of cold air over the central US.  Then, it's all about lining that up with storms.  If that drought holds, we could - believe it or not - do better than last year.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk



Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline mempho

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 4,301
  • Location: Collierville
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 836
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #73 on: September 27, 2021, 10:05:30 PM »
I definitely missed this. I don't think I buy it.

(Attachment Link)
More snow than rain this winter...

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk



Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline Thundersnow

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 12,560
  • Location: Nolensville
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 696
Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #74 on: September 27, 2021, 10:23:17 PM »
Alright- I’ll bite because- why not?

Super blockbuster storm in our region at some point in the coming years- as in, all time 24-hour snow records will be smashed.

Why you say?

Warm season storm systems have been trending toward high end rainfall totals. The climate is amped, and the Gulf is juiced. Just a matter of time before we thread a needle and get a polar high, and a slow moving super low grinds its way along the Gulf Coast and crushes the state.

Mempho, you have my back?

 

*

February 2022
by Clarksville Snowman
[Today at 10:51:49 PM]
Putin it to Ukraine
by WXHD
[Today at 09:20:53 PM]
January 2022
by Coach B
[Today at 09:13:47 PM]
"Perfect" Winter Storm Setup Scenario - Memphis
by Curt
[January 26, 2022, 01:32:07 PM]