Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022

[Bruce]

Don’t look at the Cfsv2 model if you want cold winter …

[Curt]

Winter 2021-22 should be a weak to perhaps low end moderate La Nina- AND with a moderately strong PDO. The PDO is now in a cold phase which is quite different than the last 20 years, although it can flip temporarily. Most mets now believe we have made the change to negative not unlike the 50's through the 80's. The AMO is on the tail end of its positive phase but not yet negative. Given those parameters, my filtered data set spit out 23 winter storms since 1950. 9 of those winters had a PV split. Just based on those alone, and knowing that NAO/AO/PNA/and EPO are all short term events that cant be predicted without a couple weeks notice, winters that actually produced with those parameters are:

1950-51
1955-56
1964-65
1967-68
1969-70
1970-71
1974-75
2000-01
2008-09
2010-11
2020-21

2000-01 also had an incredibly negative QBO like the winter we are about to experience AND it was a second year Nina. 2017-18 looks similar with a second year Nina and off the chart QBO although PDO didn't quite match up. 2011-12 was a second year Nina in a negative PDO but its Nina was east based and SST dont match up well to now. Lots to assess between now and then. There are quite a few heavy hitters in the line up and one real dud (2011-2012).

[Golfmankevin]

Not sure if anyone has seen this yet

[snowdog]

Not sure if anyone has seen this yet

Weak La Nina and a negative QBO usually means cold....hopefully the image below can be seen...

[Bruce]

Weak La Nina and a negative QBO usually means cold....hopefully the image below can be seen...

better than a 50 50 chance we are heading toward a moderate La Niña

[StormNine]

The models are a bit more aggressive on the Nina taking it to -1.1 to -1.3C range and a few even briefly dipping into strong La-Nina range.  The trick here is that it is very short-lived and quickly weakens to a Weak La-Nina by mid to late winter.

The two concerns about cold we have are

- The tendency to have low-pressure systems in the Gulf of Alaska, which leads to the everyone in the US and Southern Canada torches pattern, but does provide drought relief for the Pacific Northwest at least.

- Will we see heat release from the mega-drought out west similar to the heat release we saw in 2011-12 with the drought in the southern plains.

There does appear to be at least an average chance at getting blocking in the arctic, which is good news and we may at least have shots of a -AO/-NAO. 

With all that being said, kinda like last winter, I like the idea of having a 2-4 week period of pure winter goodness surrounded by a period of average to at times well above average temperatures.   

[Bruce]

The models are a bit more aggressive on the Nina taking it to -1.1 to -1.3C range and a few even briefly dipping into strong La-Nina range.  The trick here is that it is very short-lived and quickly weakens to a Weak La-Nina by mid to late winter.

The two concerns about cold we have are

- The tendency to have low-pressure systems in the Gulf of Alaska, which leads to the everyone in the US and Southern Canada torches pattern, but does provide drought relief for the Pacific Northwest at least.

- Will we see heat release from the mega-drought out west similar to the heat release we saw in 2011-12 with the drought in the southern plains.

With those being said there does appear to be at least an average chance at getting blocking in the arctic, which is good news and we may at least have shots of a -AO/-NAO. 

With all thatdef being said kinda like last winter I like the idea of having a 2-4 week period of pure winter goodness surrounded by a period of average to at times well above average temperatures.   

most definitely looking forward to the above average part…. Liking what see thus far .

[Clarksville Snowman]

Liking the chances of having a window for some good winter weather. In our area a solid week or 2 of true winter weather would have many on here ready for a warm up. I would always rather see a solid week of cold and snow than 2 or 3 snows strung out over 2-3 months and they are all gone the next day with a warm up. 7-10 days of snowcover at one time in our area is pretty awesome if we don't get much of nothing else. Last year we had 2 storms in 4-5 days and a good solid week of cold. I'll take that every winter. Always looking for the big dog, any snow over 6 inches in 24 hours is a big dog here. Still hoping to witness the 24 hour record to fall in my lifetime for my area. It is 12 inches. We had a shot that one march event 14-15 years ago, but we got 9. I have seen some 8 inch snows in the 80's a few times. Oh well I will quit the rambling on this rainy summer day, hope all are well. Will be checking in more the closer we get to winter.  

[Nashville_Wx]

All I want to know is how much IMBY and when those dates are going to be. I really do not need any of the fine details.

[snowdog]

All I want to know is how much IMBY and when those dates are going to be. I really do not need any of the fine details.

Which backyard? LOL. Tahoe or Nashvegas?

[schneitzeit]

I'm expecting anywhere from 80-120 inches. 

[Bruce]

I'm expecting anywhere from 80-120 inches. 

you will get sick of snow this winter … lol

[TNHunter]

I'm expecting anywhere from 80-120 inches. 

I need some of what you are smoking.

[Bruce]

I need some of what you are smoking.

he is actually telling truth… he moved off to upstate new York for school… right in the heart of the big snow belt.

[TNHunter]

he is actually telling truth… he moved off to upstate new York for school… right in the heart of the big snow belt.

Oh gotcha!