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Author Topic: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022  (Read 5123 times)

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Offline Nashville_Wx

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #15 on: June 23, 2021, 10:54:38 PM »
I just saw the latest graphic and it is trending to a cool neutral/borderline weak La-Nina with a cluster around the -0.5C mark or around 2005-06 or 2016-17 levels.

My forecast is The Nina, OH, the Pinta, OH, the santa maria, OH, I'll do you in the bottom while you're drinking Sangria. That is what I think trying to forecast winter 5 months out. But I understand its something we must do. But oh my


Offline StormNine

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #16 on: June 24, 2021, 07:20:17 AM »
My forecast is The Nina, OH, the Pinta, OH, the santa maria, OH, I'll do you in the bottom while you're drinking Sangria. That is what I think trying to forecast winter 5 months out. But I understand its something we must do. But oh my

Ever since 2015-16 our winters seem to want to rebel against their forecast ENSO state anyway.  There may be some tendency to torch nationwide in the late fall/winter as that excessive above-average bubble in the West will have to move some time. Similar in how the drought/heat of TX/LA/OK and points west in 2011 expanded starting in 2011-12. 

Other than that who knows. 

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #17 on: June 24, 2021, 10:29:28 AM »
Some signs of a Nina-leaning pattern in NOAA's forecast.

As you said, Stormnine, our past several winters have hardly been contingent on ENSO analogs.

Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline StormNine

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #18 on: July 12, 2021, 01:53:44 PM »
Now the models show a solid La-Nina at least the strength of last year.  A big change in the ENSO forecast as what was once a Neutral year now becomes a La-Nina.

With the mega-drought out west and all that heat energy, a strong Bermuda ridge, warm arctic, and possibly the Sunspots awakening this upcoming winter is looking quite 2011-12 ish.   

The early analogs are:
1999-00
2001-02
2005-06
2011-12
2016-17

Can we say yuck!!

Offline StormNine

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #19 on: July 12, 2021, 01:59:55 PM »
The good news is that the winters have largely done the opposite of what they were supposed to be by analogs since 2016-17.

The other good news is that we have that active subtropical belt that has been a part of our life during the winter months regardless of ENSO since the last super El-Nino.

With that being said we will need help from either a very strong -EPO and/or a strong -NAO or we will torch this entire continent this cool season.   

Offline Curt

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Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #20 on: July 25, 2021, 05:07:16 PM »
If enso state isn’t strong’ I think we should be past the “it’s a La Niña or El Niño, so one size fits all” mentality. Strength and placement of anomalies can make all of the difference. It’s way out there but we are getting close enough to say weak La Niña looks likely with a peak early winter. Anomaly placement looks like west vs east. One difference will be the developing negative QBO and the current negative PDO which has now flipped. That negative PDO probably means more La Niña years than El Niño. The Atlantic looks much colder than in years past, too. Lots to keep an eye on especially this early.

Offline StormNine

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #21 on: July 25, 2021, 08:36:36 PM »
If enso state isn’t strong’ I think we should be past the “it’s a La Niña or El Niño, so one size fits all” mentality. Strength and placement of anomalies can make all of the difference. It’s way out there but we are getting close enough to say weak La Niña looks likely with a peak early winter. Anomaly placement looks like west vs east. One difference will be the developing negative QBO and the current negative PDO which has now flipped. That negative PDO probably means more La Niña years than El Niño. The Atlantic looks much colder than in years past, too. Lots to keep an eye on especially this early.

Really we need a + or - 1.5C or greater for ENSO to really dominate the pattern as it did in years like 2015-16 or 2007-08.  This is especially true if another factor proves to be significant such as an unusually + or - NAO, an extended long MJO phase, etc.   


 



Online Bruce

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #22 on: July 26, 2021, 05:15:49 AM »
Our problem has been a screwed up pacific , no matter the Enso…  that s if you like cold n snow.
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Online snowdog

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #23 on: July 26, 2021, 09:15:30 AM »
The good news is that the winters have largely done the opposite of what they were supposed to be by analogs since 2016-17.

The other good news is that we have that active subtropical belt that has been a part of our life during the winter months regardless of ENSO since the last super El-Nino.

With that being said we will need help from either a very strong -EPO and/or a strong -NAO or we will torch this entire continent this cool season.

Good discussion and I would agree. We seem to have decoupled from the usual enso implications on winter, at least to a decent degree.

I'm not as worried about a possible Nina on our winter chances as I wouldve been 10 to 15 years ago.

Offline Curt

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #24 on: July 26, 2021, 09:17:04 AM »
Our problem has been a screwed up pacific , no matter the Enso…  that s if you like cold n snow.
You mean the same pacific the drove three winter storms within a week into our area last February?

Online Bruce

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #25 on: July 26, 2021, 10:20:30 AM »
You mean the same pacific the drove three winter storms within a week into our area last February?
yeah pretty much … we just happen thread needle there  I am afraid …. Sometime s good have luck on your side .
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #26 on: July 26, 2021, 11:14:50 AM »
Hey it's gonna snow guys, that's all I know!!!!!!  ::applause:: ::guitar:: ::snowman:: ::snowman::

Offline Nashville_Wx

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #27 on: August 01, 2021, 12:02:37 PM »
yeah pretty much … we just happen thread needle there  I am afraid …. Sometime s good have luck on your side .

150day range is showing a nice storm for East TN. Keep a eye out.


Online snowdog

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #28 on: August 01, 2021, 01:50:34 PM »
150day range is showing a nice storm for East TN. Keep a eye out.

If models still have it at 100 days, I'll start to get excited, but 150 days...fool me once

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #29 on: August 01, 2021, 04:56:21 PM »
If models still have it at 100 days, I'll start to get excited, but 150 days...fool me once

Accuweather's 90-day forecast is my go-to.
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

 

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