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Author Topic: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022  (Read 23516 times)

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Offline gcbama

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #90 on: October 02, 2021, 02:30:46 PM »
I am not going to produce a fancy graphic or think about this too much, but I will throw in my  ::twocents:: on how I think this winter will go based on the pattern thus far from now back to the summer of 2020.

I see the western half of the state as slightly above normal with temps and precipitation. Eastern much of the same, just a few days behind and dryer.  We will get semi frequent cold shots that are transient, but will stick around long enough to perhaps squeeze some overrunning winter precip in the west.  The east will have to rely on clippers for any snow chances (not counting if the PV sets up in a good location as I am about to talk about).  I think we will see another polar vortex ejection to the lower 48 again this year but I am not going to try and predict where.  Hopefully it plummets down the middle of the country like last year and puts the most of the state at the base of the trough where pacific systems can train trough, but the PV could end up anywhere.  I think it will be east of the rockies at minimum with the western US likely staying warm/dry.

Basically I am seeing a repeat of the last 3 winters, with maybe a few more cold shots.
My apologies for not preparing this better based on linked data.  I hate doing that, but I wanted to contribute my thoughts, and have just been too busy with work to follow the weather too closely the past couple months. I am sure some of you noticed my absence here.  :)

Winter precip last year was pretty much how i like, it a perfectly average season....2 events in my area, one produced 2.5 inches of snow and the big one in feb I got around 5 inches of snow on top of that half inch of sleet...Also had an very cold christmas day which i love and a full week of arctic temps in feb when i did not get above freezing for 8 days....I could have used a little more snow but overall it was a great winter for me. If we can get close to that again this year i will be happy :)

Offline StormNine

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #91 on: October 02, 2021, 02:48:06 PM »
My first thought is that this goes with a combination of 2005-06 and last winter.  2005-06 had that record warm January but had some chances in Dec and Feb that we did not capitalize on and last winter had a not as warm January but NE TN hit paydirt on Christmas and most everyone else minus SE TN scored in February.

A lot of things are similar including the ENSO, general Pacific look, ridging capabilities in the Northern Plains/Canada, etc.

Offline mempho

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #92 on: October 05, 2021, 05:20:24 AM »
I do agree with you.  I think totals could be epic in some locales, possibly 3, 4, or even 5 times anything that is in our recorded observations.

In a very serious note, this winter appears to have a highly elevated risk of this type of event.  Do we get significant cold air mass buildup over the cold pole along with a cross-Polar flow and a well-timed drop of the air? Those questions can't be answered but there is much evidence this is highly likely to occur.  While that could change, there is nothing expected to cause it to do so.

The serious part of this is simply this.... This type of event across the heart of America will likely cause not only a local humanitarian crisis but also have significant disruption to regional, national, and international supply chains.

Locally, the event will likely be devastating.  Accumulations of 3 to 6 feet would occur locally.  Sounds extreme, right? 

Did you see how quickly this year the right combination of cold and moisture can put down 6 inches here?  Now, imagine that it trains with a stalled boundary.  Did you see areas like Pine Bluff, AR last year? How many inches in just 24 hours with a stalling system? There are few places on earth where this type of high-end potential can occur.  It has my happened much in the past couple of centuries but that does not mean it won't happen.  I believe we see entering a historically  unprecedented situation here.  Without a quick warmup, travel could be adversely impacted for weeks.

Be prepared to have food and water and a way to keep warm for at least two to three weeks. 

Buy a snow shovel. 

Buy a ladder to get to your roof to shovel the snow off. 

Buy appropriate snow apparel, including pants, socks, boots, and gloves.

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Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Online Bruce

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #93 on: October 05, 2021, 05:56:10 AM »
I do agree with you.  I think totals could be epic in some locales, possibly 3, 4, or even 5 times anything that is in our recorded observations.

In a very serious note, this winter appears to have a highly elevated risk of this type of event.  Do we get significant cold air mass buildup over the cold pole along with a cross-Polar flow and a well-timed drop of the air? Those questions can't be answered but there is much evidence this is highly likely to occur.  While that could change, there is nothing expected to cause it to do so.

The serious part of this is simply this.... This type of event across the heart of America will likely cause not only a local humanitarian crisis but also have significant disruption to regional, national, and international supply chains.

Locally, the event will likely be devastating.  Accumulations of 3 to 6 feet would occur locally.  Sounds extreme, right? 

Did you see how quickly this year the right combination of cold and moisture can put down 6 inches here?  Now, imagine that it trains with a stalled boundary.  Did you see areas like Pine Bluff, AR last year? How many inches in just 24 hours with a stalling system? There are few places on earth where this type of high-end potential can occur.  It has my happened much in the past couple of centuries but that does not mean it won't happen.  I believe we see entering a historically  unprecedented situation here.  Without a quick warmup, travel could be adversely impacted for weeks.

Be prepared to have food and water and a way to keep warm for at least two to three weeks. 

Buy a snow shovel. 

Buy a ladder to get to your roof to shovel the snow off. 

Buy appropriate snow apparel, including pants, socks, boots, and gloves.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
lmao… this post must been made back in the 70s ….but I it can’t be, this forum wasn’t around then. …
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline StormNine

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #94 on: October 05, 2021, 07:27:10 AM »
I do agree with you.  I think totals could be epic in some locales, possibly 3, 4, or even 5 times anything that is in our recorded observations.

In a very serious note, this winter appears to have a highly elevated risk of this type of event.  Do we get significant cold air mass buildup over the cold pole along with a cross-Polar flow and a well-timed drop of the air? Those questions can't be answered but there is much evidence this is highly likely to occur.  While that could change, there is nothing expected to cause it to do so.

The serious part of this is simply this.... This type of event across the heart of America will likely cause not only a local humanitarian crisis but also have significant disruption to regional, national, and international supply chains.

Locally, the event will likely be devastating.  Accumulations of 3 to 6 feet would occur locally.  Sounds extreme, right? 

Did you see how quickly this year the right combination of cold and moisture can put down 6 inches here?  Now, imagine that it trains with a stalled boundary.  Did you see areas like Pine Bluff, AR last year? How many inches in just 24 hours with a stalling system? There are few places on earth where this type of high-end potential can occur.  It has my happened much in the past couple of centuries but that does not mean it won't happen.  I believe we see entering a historically  unprecedented situation here.  Without a quick warmup, travel could be adversely impacted for weeks.

Be prepared to have food and water and a way to keep warm for at least two to three weeks. 

Buy a snow shovel. 

Buy a ladder to get to your roof to shovel the snow off. 

Buy appropriate snow apparel, including pants, socks, boots, and gloves.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

In all seriousness, last February's cold snap/winter weather caused over 21 Billion dollars in damage and killed over 250 people.  It further undermined trust in both government and big corporations and caused strive.

What Mempho said is actually not too far off the mark for what went on in TX/S Arkansas last winter.  People really underestimated the damage that cold shot caused. 

With climate change and the increase of high-latitude blocking along with aging infrastructure, there are some concerns.  We are not looking at Fallout or Walking Dead stuff here but it is something to think about it as with all-natural disasters.   

Offline snowdog

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #95 on: October 05, 2021, 09:00:20 AM »
Just to add, part of climate change is Earths quickly weakening magnetic field which also plays with the weather at our poles.

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #96 on: October 05, 2021, 04:58:44 PM »
Just to add, part of climate change is Earths quickly weakening magnetic field which also plays with the weather at our poles.

https://climate.nasa.gov/blog/3104/flip-flop-why-variations-in-earths-magnetic-field-arent-causing-todays-climate-change/
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Summer 2007 Drought
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Offline snowdog

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #97 on: October 05, 2021, 08:14:51 PM »
https://climate.nasa.gov/blog/3104/flip-flop-why-variations-in-earths-magnetic-field-arent-causing-todays-climate-change/

Its a complicated issue and having listened to NASA debate this issue, just my opinion, but they dont seem to have as firm a grasp on this topic as those who are doing extensive work on space weather. Id look into suspicious observers channel on youtube where they go back and forth with NASA folks. Interesting, no matter which side you agree with.

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #98 on: October 05, 2021, 09:25:44 PM »
Its a complicated issue and having listened to NASA debate this issue, just my opinion, but they dont seem to have as firm a grasp on this topic as those who are doing extensive work on space weather. Id look into suspicious observers channel on youtube where they go back and forth with NASA folks. Interesting, no matter which side you agree with.

Heh- I’m seeing a theme here (common with the covid thread).

;)

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #99 on: October 06, 2021, 05:21:35 AM »
Here's what Accu has come up with if y'all haven't seen it yet. They're not really straying from Nina analogs.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/accuweathers-2021-2022-us-winter-forecast/1022887

Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
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Offline mempho

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #100 on: October 06, 2021, 06:25:45 AM »
In all seriousness, last February's cold snap/winter weather caused over 21 Billion dollars in damage and killed over 250 people.  It further undermined trust in both government and big corporations and caused strive.

What Mempho said is actually not too far off the mark for what went on in TX/S Arkansas last winter.  People really underestimated the damage that cold shot caused. 

With climate change and the increase of high-latitude blocking along with aging infrastructure, there are some concerns.  We are not looking at Fallout or Walking Dead stuff here but it is something to think about it as with all-natural disasters.
Let's also state that the California drought situation is fairly dire.  There are indications that the past 200 years were much wetter than previous centuries in the past two millinea.  Therefore, a return to a much drier state could be a reversion to the mean or an indication of climate change.  Take your pick but, if it continue to get worse, it will likely be debated/studied.  Now, the possibility of an ill-timed La Nina has reared its head. 

Regardless, what this would mean for us is that essentially, it supports the development semi-permanent area of a High pressure in the west (drought begets drought essentially).

That will support times of coast-to-coast torch along the southern half of the United States but it ALSO supports extended periods of trough in the east and guides of severely cold air masses into the central and Eastern parts of the United States.

These cold air masses will interact with moisture-laden air masses and the results can, at times, be astounding. Even in bad years (for us), someone gets hammered.  A "bad" year in this regime is a 2014 redux.  Cold and snowless.  However, there are also years with tremendous results.  There may occasionally be years like a 2012 with coast-to-coast torch all the way but these will not be the norm.

We could also see seasons, however, for which there is no comparison.  The problem is that most of that snow will likely come up in a very compressed time period and that can lead to problems.

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Put on my big snow boots and
I boarded the plane
Touched down in the land of the Delta Blues
In the middle of the freezing rain

Snow up high
Won't you pour down over me
Yeah, I got some accretion
But I'm as blue as a boy can be

Offline StormNine

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #101 on: October 06, 2021, 07:04:29 AM »
If we don't lose that Gulf of Alaska low and the Pacific in general stays at its current configuration then this winter will probably follow the classic La-Nina route. 

Of course even if this was a Neutral or even weak El-Nino and the Pacific looked like this it would follow the classic La-Nina route.  Meaning one could probably actually use analogs this winter and do well, something that was impossible to do the last 4 or so winters.   

Offline snowdog

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #102 on: October 06, 2021, 10:44:07 AM »
Heh- I’m seeing a theme here (common with the covid thread).

;)

Yeah, I'm open to ideas and don't defer to authority. Just because NASA says it, doesn't make it gospel. The other side presents a compelling argument and honestly has better evidence on their side. But it is complicated subject matter with multiple variables, many still not well understood.

If people are interested, there is a daily video where they go over some really interesting topics, many times weather related. This was just from the other day... https://youtu.be/Q4djO6P1ozI?t=66
« Last Edit: October 06, 2021, 10:51:50 AM by snowdog »

Offline snowdog

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Offline Mr. Golf

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #104 on: October 06, 2021, 04:09:24 PM »
I think this winter will go 1 of two ways. 1st- Blowtorch all winter starting this month and lasting until March.  2nd- we get an early SSW and a first half cold winter.  ::scratch:: Its no fun having no opportunities at winter weather here, but we are in the south and having one opportunity at snow and ice each winter is a blessing for us.

 

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