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Author Topic: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022  (Read 16773 times)

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Offline Nashville_Wx

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Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« on: June 10, 2021, 11:36:11 PM »
Bump, less than 6 months away from the season of cheer. **** the heat let winter be here.


Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #1 on: June 11, 2021, 01:46:00 PM »
If you're going to bump this, might as well go ahead and start the 2021-2022 thread.

If we get a week at any point in the winter like we saw in mid-February, the rest of the winter can torch, and I'll be happy.

(I realize East TN didn't really get in on that mid-February series like the Middle and West did.)

Offline StormNine

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #2 on: June 11, 2021, 02:34:52 PM »
If you're going to bump this, might as well go ahead and start the 2021-2022 thread.

If we get a week at any point in the winter like we saw in mid-February, the rest of the winter can torch, and I'll be happy.

(I realize East TN didn't really get in on that mid-February series like the Middle and West did.)

NE TN had a good period in December and SE TN had a surprise ULL the previous winter.  Pretty much everyone got something the past two winters. 

The biggest problem for the Sierra Nevada range is going to involve making it to December without any towns or major resorts in ashes.  The energy available for fires over there is at record levels. I don't imagine it is any better really anywhere else in the West or Northern Plains.       

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #3 on: June 11, 2021, 03:12:06 PM »
If you're going to bump this, might as well go ahead and start the 2021-2022 thread.

If we get a week at any point in the winter like we saw in mid-February, the rest of the winter can torch, and I'll be happy.

(I realize East TN didn't really get in on that mid-February series like the Middle and West did.)

I'll be getting more snow than all of you this year  >:D
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #4 on: June 11, 2021, 03:20:32 PM »
I'll be getting more snow than all of you this year  >:D


Offline snowdog

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #5 on: June 11, 2021, 09:10:35 PM »
Bump, less than 6 months away from the season of cheer. **** the heat let winter be here.

I'm ready. Skip July/August. Lets get on with it.

Offline snowdog

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #6 on: June 20, 2021, 10:56:17 PM »
Well, today was Summer Solstice. From here on out, until the first day of winter, days start to slowly get shorter. I can already imagine that first cool front...

Online Bruce

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #7 on: June 21, 2021, 05:36:29 AM »
Well, today was Summer Solstice. From here on out, until the first day of winter, days start to slowly get shorter. I can already imagine that first cool front...
yeah. It comes today later …. Nice little cool Down
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #8 on: June 21, 2021, 08:38:36 AM »
I'm ready. Skip July/August. Lets get on with it.

Let me harvest my berries and then I'll jump aboard.
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #9 on: June 22, 2021, 11:07:03 AM »
It's kind of funny folks always ready to jump to another season no matter what it is. Enjoy the ride and enjoy them all.   ::guitar:: ::popcorn::

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #10 on: June 22, 2021, 11:23:00 AM »
Alright- I'm going to go ahead and chop off the last few posts into a new 21/22 thread.  ;)

Offline StormNine

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #11 on: June 22, 2021, 03:40:12 PM »
From an ENSO standpoint, this winter looks to be neutral.

It is important to know that Neutral winters only mean that El-Nino and La-Nina will not play a role in them (one could argue if they played a role in any winter since 2015-16 but that is another subject). 

Another thing to know is that Neutral Winters have not been that great since really the Mt. Pinatubo years. Taking out the Pinatubo years we have the following ENSO Neutral winters since 1985. If it wasn't for the neutral winters of the 60s and 70s plus that certain storm in 1992-93 then neutral winters would be widely known as generally being sucky for cold/snow   

1985-86
1989-90
1990-91 (borderline El-Nino)
1996-97
2001-02
2003-04
2005-06 (borderline La-Nina)
2012-13
2013-14
2016-17 (borderline La-Nina)
2019-20 (borderline El-Nino)

Of that list of our most recent 11 Neutral Non-Pinatubo driven ENSO winters, the only three good things that stick out are December 1989 (we won't talk about Jan-March 1990), the widespread White Christmas of 1990 (the only significant snow that winter by the way), and the solid coldness of 2013-14 (which was a really good winter for Southern and Eastern TN by the way).   

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #12 on: June 23, 2021, 02:26:50 PM »
This is not a forecasting post, but a resource for those who would like to view it. I came across this unintentionally.

18 Feb 2021https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/daily-snow/TN/snowfall/20210218

Specify the date you would like to view. This has archived 6 years of records.

Other dates of interest from the previous winter:

7 Feb https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/daily-snow/TN/snowfall/20210207

8 Jan https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/daily-snow/TN/snowfall/20210108

25 Dec https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/daily-snow/TN/snowfall/20201225
« Last Edit: June 23, 2021, 02:30:02 PM by schneitzeit »
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #13 on: June 23, 2021, 03:06:06 PM »
From an ENSO standpoint, this winter looks to be neutral.

The June 17 report from NOAA is actually leaning toward a Nina.
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline StormNine

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
« Reply #14 on: June 23, 2021, 04:48:00 PM »
The June 17 report from NOAA is actually leaning toward a Nina.

I just saw the latest graphic and it is trending to a cool neutral/borderline weak La-Nina with a cluster around the -0.5C mark or around 2005-06 or 2016-17 levels.   

 

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December 10th-11th Storminess
by StormNine
[Today at 07:37:56 PM]
December 2021
by Nashville_Wx
[Today at 02:09:36 PM]
Long Range Discussion: Winter 2021-2022
by Thundersnow
[December 04, 2021, 05:43:39 PM]
November 2021
by Dyersburg Weather
[December 02, 2021, 06:04:27 AM]