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Author Topic: 2021 Tropical Season  (Read 6996 times)

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Offline gcbama

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Re: 2021 Tropical Season
« Reply #75 on: August 25, 2021, 05:13:05 PM »
this one has my attention....warm waters ahead , this far out i only look at models for the track and not the strength , too many times a storm only supposed to be cat 1 or 2 in a 5 day forecast only to see it become cat4+ type storm, most recent example is michael

Offline StormNine

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Re: 2021 Tropical Season
« Reply #76 on: August 25, 2021, 06:03:33 PM »
this one has my attention....warm waters ahead , this far out i only look at models for the track and not the strength , too many times a storm only supposed to be cat 1 or 2 in a 5 day forecast only to see it become cat4+ type storm, most recent example is michael

The problem here is we are trending away from significant land interaction with the Yucatan. With a lot of tracks just clipping around Cancun or going in between Mexico and Cuba. 

Remember Grace had significant land interaction and was able to quickly get to a CAT 3 before landfall.   

Offline Bruce

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Re: 2021 Tropical Season
« Reply #77 on: August 25, 2021, 06:06:16 PM »
The problem here is we are trending away from significant land interaction with the Yucatan. With a lot of tracks just clipping around Cancun or going in between Mexico and Cuba. 

Remember Grace had significant land interaction and was able to quickly get to a CAT 3 before landfall.   
yeah this one this far still changes coming, looks like it got good chance to split the up rights ….
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 2021 Tropical Season
« Reply #78 on: August 26, 2021, 08:33:14 AM »
Spaghetti models this morning look much more troublesome than the initial thoughts I saw from mets early yesterday. Louisiana should be getting very nervous, although this far out the track could certainly shift in either direction. For the moment it looks like a straight shot into the central Gulf coast with a good chance of avoiding land interaction on the way in.

As happy as I am to have something to track and talk about other than COVID a potential landfalling hurricane wouldn't be my first choice of weather for the U.S.

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 2021 Tropical Season
« Reply #79 on: August 26, 2021, 08:42:27 AM »
Still on tropical weather, the two systems in the Atlantic both have better chances than yesterday at development. The one in the central Atlantic has a high chance (70%) over the next 5 days and the one south of that one has a medium chance (50%) over the next 5 days. We're getting into the heart of hurricane season and unfortunately the storms seem to be heating up right on schedule.

The central Atlantic storm is probably the one to keep an eye on as it has better conditions and is also moving eastward. It could very well turn or dissipate long before it gets to the U.S., but stuff is definitely out there.

Offline Bruce

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Re: 2021 Tropical Season
« Reply #80 on: August 26, 2021, 11:45:02 AM »
Lot talk around this could be Camille s twin….
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Bruce

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Re: 2021 Tropical Season
« Reply #81 on: August 30, 2021, 12:36:26 PM »
Models are picking up on another major cane to hit guess where ?  You got it Louisiana… course mid long range ..
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 2021 Tropical Season
« Reply #82 on: September 11, 2021, 08:37:54 AM »
Invest 94L is ramping up pretty quickly and will likely hit either TX or LA as a TD or TS. The GRS that's the heaviest rain going to LA, which they obviously don't need right now.

Offline StormNine

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Re: 2021 Tropical Season
« Reply #83 on: September 11, 2021, 11:50:09 AM »
The ridging pattern with the center of the ridging up top (Midwest to Northeast/SE Canada) is not good for the Gulf Coast at all.

Offline StormNine

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Re: 2021 Tropical Season
« Reply #84 on: September 12, 2021, 10:26:31 AM »
Tropical Storm Nicholas could be a problem especailly since ridging up top is going to essentially trap it in the SE TX/SW LA area till the storm dissipates. 

If it hangs in the ocean more we could see up to CAT 1, but regardless it is going to rain cats, dogs, and hogs from Port Lavaca to Houston to Lafayette, LA this week.   

Offline 10ec_dad

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Re: 2021 Tropical Season
« Reply #85 on: September 12, 2021, 10:33:35 AM »
If I heard correctly rain could start in TX & LA later today and stick around to mid-week.

Also saw where a SE Canadian ridge could set up in 10 days increasing the chance of a TS or hurricane landfall on the US until the ridge breaks down.

There are a couple of systems off the coast of Africa to keep an eye on for development and tracking.

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Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 2021 Tropical Season
« Reply #86 on: September 12, 2021, 04:23:14 PM »
We've now got TS Nicolas in the Gulf. Right now the track thankfully veers west into TX rather than into LA, but it needs to be watched.

Offline 10ec_dad

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Re: 2021 Tropical Season
« Reply #87 on: September 12, 2021, 04:26:35 PM »
That could mean a weaker but slower storm which means more rain.

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Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 2021 Tropical Season
« Reply #88 on: September 14, 2021, 05:24:56 AM »
Nicholas is now a hurricane just before landfall.

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: 2021 Tropical Season
« Reply #89 on: September 15, 2021, 12:29:00 PM »
The continental high pressure that will pass over the Eastern U.S. at the end of next week could steer a major hurricane away from the coast. Reference: 12Z GFS
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

 

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