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Author Topic: 5/4/21 Hailer  (Read 3896 times)

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Offline NismoWx

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5/4/21 Hailer
« on: May 02, 2021, 04:42:24 PM »
A hailstorm is not my idea of a birthday present. Yes, yes, I know, May the Fourth Be With You.........and also with you. (Don't flame me, I highly dislike Star Wars)  ::shrug::


OHX AFD Sunday Afternoon 1418 CST:

Quote

000
FXUS64 KOHX 021918
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
218 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Showers have increased in coverage the last couple of hours as the
influences of the upper low over eastern Texas work into the area.
Showers will continue to spread eastward this evening. The upper
trough axis will be along the Mississippi River by midnight with
weak instability sliding into our area. This will allow for some
scattered storms with some heavier rain. Scattered showers and
storms will continue into Monday morning before tapering off as the
upper trough lifts northeast and upper ridging temporarily takes
control. Along with the upper ridging building into the area, some
impressive lapse rates above the elevated mixed layer will be
advected into the region. Right now, the upper ridging looks strong
enough to suppress any convection through Monday evening, but if
something happened to fire, it could pose a hail and damaging wind
threat given the amount of instability due to the steep lapse rates.

Further west, clusters of storms are expected to initiate in
vicinity of the Ozarks along a cold front and move eastward. Models
differ in if these storms make it into our area and how widespread
convection is going into Tuesday morning. If these storms do make it
into our area, the steep lapse rates will still be in place with
models showing 1700-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE over our northwest at
04/09z. The storms could pose a large hail and damaging wind threat.
The overnight/Tuesday morning round could have an effect on the next
round of severe potential which will be Tuesday afternoon just
ahead of a cold front which will be aided by a shortwave lifting
northeast out of the southern plains. Morning convection could
leave atmospheric recovery in peril before the cold front moves
through, but right now models do show moderate to impressive
instability during the afternoon ahead of the front. The NAM as
usual is the outlier with 3500-4500 J/kg of CAPE in the afternoon.
The GFS seems more reasonable with 1500-2500 J/kg of CAPE which
is still impressive. Low level shear will be limited with straight
hodographs which would limit the tornado threat. Right now, this
looks like primarily a damaging wind threat and perhaps a couple
instances of large hail.
The potential downfalls to this threat
will be the previously mentioned morning convection and lack of
atmospheric recovery and too much convection south of our area in
Alabama Tuesday afternoon which could limit richer low level
moisture in our area.

The cold front will clear our area Tuesday evening with rain chances
decreasing through Tuesday night. High pressure will slide by to the
north on Wednesday which will provide us with a dry and pleasant
day. Thursday morning looks mainly dry before upper troughing dives
southward out of the northern plains. Models show this system
weakening as it approaches our area. A couple of light showers
could be possible with this system. The trough axis moves through
Thursday night, but northwest flow remains which will keep
temperatures about 5 degrees below average moving into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR continue with reductions to MVFR/IFR possible this TAF period.
Scattered SHRA look to move in after 23z-00z with TSRA possible by
06z...especially near BNA/MQY/CSV. Activity will diminish toward
the end of the TAF period, after 16z Mon. SSW winds increase this
afternoon and remain gusting 15-25 kts on Mon.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      63  83  67  81  55 /  90  60  50  80  70
Clarksville    62  81  66  79  51 /  90  50  50  80  70
Crossville     61  78  65  78  55 /  80  70  40  90  80
Columbia       63  83  67  81  55 /  90  50  40  90  70
Lawrenceburg   63  83  68  80  57 /  90  50  40  90  70
Waverly        62  83  66  80  51 /  90  50  50  80  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Reagan
AVIATION........Schaper


Offline schneitzeit

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Re: 5/4/21 Hailer
« Reply #1 on: May 02, 2021, 05:40:06 PM »
A hailstorm is not my idea of a birthday present. Yes, yes, I know, May the Fourth Be With You.........and also with you. (Don't flame me, I highly dislike Star Wars)  ::shrug::


OHX AFD Sunday Afternoon 1418 CST:

I've only seen the first one. Didn't think anything super special of it.

Go ahead and freak out, nerds.
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline StormNine

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Re: 5/4/21 Hailer
« Reply #2 on: May 02, 2021, 08:09:10 PM »
Tomorrow has the chance to get pretty rough through the Ozarks into SE Missouri/Southern IL&IN/Western KY and perhaps the adjacent parts of far NW TN tomorrow night into morning rush hour Tuesday.  It is very conditional largely due to capping but there will be plenty of instablity and the upper and mid-level jet support will enter into the picture. 

What happens during that time to the north of Tennessee is going to really determine the threat for Tennessee and points south on Tuesday. Low-level shear is a bit weak and so is bulk shear but there will be monster instability and moisture return, steep enough lapse rates, and the potential for lingering outflow boundaries in areas that aren't disrupted by the morning events.  Could be enough to verify a borderline Enhanced/Moderate risk if conditions fall just right somewhere between I-40 and I-20.       

Offline Bruce

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Re: 5/4/21 Hailer
« Reply #3 on: May 02, 2021, 08:21:03 PM »
I’m getting more n more interested tomorrow nite. Lower level jet looks to enhance things in evening period ...
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Bruce

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Re: 5/4/21 Hailer
« Reply #4 on: May 02, 2021, 09:35:12 PM »
Cell just sw Tupelo has a impressive tds on it
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline 10ec_dad

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Re: 5/4/21 Hailer
« Reply #5 on: May 02, 2021, 09:41:34 PM »
Just that as well. NWS issued a PDS comment. Again "radar confirmed" for whatever that means.

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Offline Bruce

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Re: 5/4/21 Hailer
« Reply #6 on: May 02, 2021, 09:55:04 PM »
Just that as well. NWS issued a PDS comment. Again "radar confirmed" for whatever that means.

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on ground now near Tupelo...trace state park area
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Navywxman

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Re: 5/4/21 Hailer
« Reply #7 on: May 02, 2021, 10:09:37 PM »
Tornado emergency for Tupelo continues with a huge CC drop as it begins to exit the city.


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Offline Bruce

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Re: 5/4/21 Hailer
« Reply #8 on: May 02, 2021, 10:21:33 PM »
These storms are starting put down some outflow boundaries for later tomorrow late afternoon and tomorrow nite frame...
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Bruce

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Re: 5/4/21 Hailer
« Reply #9 on: May 02, 2021, 10:29:02 PM »
Significant damage starting come in north tupelo area ...
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Matthew

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Re: 5/4/21 Hailer
« Reply #10 on: May 02, 2021, 10:35:33 PM »
Tupelo took a bad hit.

Offline Bruce

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Re: 5/4/21 Hailer
« Reply #11 on: May 02, 2021, 10:54:13 PM »
Tupelo took a bad hit.
that thing I s cycling back up again... amazing 
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Bruce

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Re: 5/4/21 Hailer
« Reply #12 on: May 02, 2021, 11:15:09 PM »
Not even a tornado watch now currently for the Tupelo area... other cells further west sw also starting rotate some but weak as of now ...
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Bruce

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Re: 5/4/21 Hailer
« Reply #13 on: May 03, 2021, 02:58:04 AM »
Slight has turned into enhanced risk...  especially a lot tennessee tomorrow
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: 5/4/21 Hailer
« Reply #14 on: May 03, 2021, 05:10:44 AM »
TOR currently just south of Columbia with a decent signature. Not good considering no one is likely expecting this. These cells are over performing so far. The models have missed something.

If this thing holds together it's headed straight for Murfreesboro.

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« Last Edit: May 03, 2021, 05:12:17 AM by mamMATTus »

 

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