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Author Topic: May 2021  (Read 4645 times)

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Offline Thundersnow

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May 2021
« on: April 30, 2021, 10:15:10 AM »
Last day of April. Tomorrow is May 1st.

The slightly eerie thing (for me at least) is that the days of the week line up with the calendar dates this year like they did in 2010. May 1-2 were Saturday and Sunday, like they are this year. Thankfully, the weather is very different this year from that year for this particular weekend.

Looks wetter starting Sunday with a wet start to the new week, but nothing too out of hand.

SPC does hint a severe risk may affect the TN valley next week, but that is not yet highlighted on the map.
« Last Edit: April 30, 2021, 10:28:49 AM by Thundersnow »

Offline gcbama

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Re: May 2021
« Reply #1 on: April 30, 2021, 10:48:42 AM »
Last day of April. Tomorrow is May 1st.

The slightly eerie thing (for me at least) is that the days of the week line up with the calendar dates this year like they did in 2010. May 1-2 were Saturday and Sunday, like they are this year. Thankfully, the weather is very different this year from that year for this particular weekend.

Looks wetter starting Sunday with a wet start to the new week, but nothing too out of hand.

SPC does hint a severe risk may affect the TN valley next week, but that is not yet highlighted on the map.

Never have seen that much rain in a 2 day period, it was devastating

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: May 2021
« Reply #2 on: April 30, 2021, 11:36:47 AM »
Saving this to possibly make fun of in 4 weeks.



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Offline Eric

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Re: May 2021
« Reply #3 on: April 30, 2021, 12:29:38 PM »
Saving this to possibly make fun of in 4 weeks.



Funny, because this was posted earlier (I know its for the first two weeks, but if the first two weeks of May are normal/below normal, the remaining two weeks are gonna have to torch).

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Offline Bruce

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Re: May 2021
« Reply #4 on: May 01, 2021, 04:53:16 AM »
SPC has a slight risk from Memphis to bout edge of Nashville for late Monday timeframe. Damaging winds do appear benson threat but there is potential for super cells...
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline StormNine

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Re: May 2021
« Reply #5 on: May 01, 2021, 07:55:19 AM »
SPC has a slight risk from Memphis to bout edge of Nashville for late Monday timeframe. Damaging winds do appear benson threat but there is potential for super cells...

Because there will be different shortwaves/impulses at this time along with the stronger instability.  So probably a setup that is more in line with our late May to sometimes Summertime severe weather setups that is MCS dominated. 

Tuesday's threat will depend on what happens with Monday Night's threat. The mesoscale is not just part of the automobile it is the automobile often times especially in May through the Summertime. 

Offline JayCee

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Re: May 2021
« Reply #6 on: May 01, 2021, 03:04:34 PM »
Good to see some soaking rains coming in next week.  April was pretty dry here.  I know some don't like the muddiness of spring in these parts, but considering summers tend to be hot and dry, especially toward July and August, I welcome a good soaking in spring. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline StormNine

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Re: May 2021
« Reply #7 on: May 01, 2021, 04:45:04 PM »
There is going to be hail to pay in Western Kentucky and perhaps adjacent parts of TN and Central Kentucky if the CAP breaks Monday Night/Early Tuesday Morning.   

Offline StormNine

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Re: May 2021
« Reply #8 on: May 01, 2021, 05:02:46 PM »
This will be a High CAPE/Low to Medium Shear setup.  The Euro has a little bit more to play with a 25-40kt bulk shear and there may be some VBV issues as well.

With that being said we can do May severe/tornado events with lower shear values. 5/27/1917 only had about 40-50kts bulk and 5/18/1995 only had slightly more so if the directional shear is good enough and you avoid VBV then just moderate shear is enough to cause issues in May. 

 

Offline Bruce

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Re: May 2021
« Reply #9 on: May 01, 2021, 05:10:38 PM »
This will be a High CAPE/Low to Medium Shear setup.  The Euro has a little bit more to play with a 25-40kt bulk shear and there may be some VBV issues as well.

With that being said we can do May severe/tornado events with lower shear values. 5/27/1917 only had about 40-50kts bulk and 5/18/1995 only had slightly more so if the directional shear is good enough and you avoid VBV then just moderate shear is enough to cause issues in May. 

 
agree euro has best shear values ... this be first time this season we actually have a lot cape work with
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline gcbama

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Re: May 2021
« Reply #10 on: May 01, 2021, 05:59:23 PM »
This will be a High CAPE/Low to Medium Shear setup.  The Euro has a little bit more to play with a 25-40kt bulk shear and there may be some VBV issues as well.

With that being said we can do May severe/tornado events with lower shear values. 5/27/1917 only had about 40-50kts bulk and 5/18/1995 only had slightly more so if the directional shear is good enough and you avoid VBV then just moderate shear is enough to cause issues in May. 

 

Y'all are good at this :) what were the values for the 1995 outbreak ( thats the outbreak that got me interested in weather.
This will be first event this year with a lot of cape available, upper dynamics not as much but still some there, seems like these setups trend to damaging winds more than anything BUT they can pack a wallop with this much cape

Offline StormNine

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Re: May 2021
« Reply #11 on: May 01, 2021, 07:43:47 PM »
Y'all are good at this :) what were the values for the 1995 outbreak ( thats the outbreak that got me interested in weather.
This will be first event this year with a lot of cape available, upper dynamics not as much but still some there, seems like these setups trend to damaging winds more than anything BUT they can pack a wallop with this much cape

- 50kt Bulk Shear (higher in Kentucky)
- 1002/1003mb ish low from SE Missouri that moved along the Ohio River essentially (5/27/1917 had a similar track by the way)
- Positively tilted trough (it doesn't always have to neg tilt)
- CAPE seemed to be in the 1500-2500 range
- A morning tornadic QLCS (the same one that produced the EF-2 in the Rivergate area) likely left an outflow boundary for the storms in Middle TN and eventually Northern AL to follow later on and locally backed the winds

Probably the most similar event to have occurred since then with that pattern was the Good Friday 2009 Outbreak.  Except that the Good Friday event just had one main round instead of two like 5/18/1995 did.   

Offline Beth

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Re: May 2021
« Reply #12 on: May 01, 2021, 08:32:35 PM »
Could we just have a “normal month” this year?  Ugh! Pool is up and going. Flowers are up and blooming.  I just wish it could be a mellow year.  With all we have been through lately it sure would be nice.  God Bless Us All! 🙏🏻

Offline gcbama

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Re: May 2021
« Reply #13 on: May 01, 2021, 09:50:44 PM »
- 50kt Bulk Shear (higher in Kentucky)
- 1002/1003mb ish low from SE Missouri that moved along the Ohio River essentially (5/27/1917 had a similar track by the way)
- Positively tilted trough (it doesn't always have to neg tilt)
- CAPE seemed to be in the 1500-2500 range
- A morning tornadic QLCS (the same one that produced the EF-2 in the Rivergate area) likely left an outflow boundary for the storms in Middle TN and eventually Northern AL to follow later on and locally backed the winds

Probably the most similar event to have occurred since then with that pattern was the Good Friday 2009 Outbreak.  Except that the Good Friday event just had one main round instead of two like 5/18/1995 did.

Thanks! I have said it before may 95 event gets overlooked because of the nashville outbreak in 98....95 was very significant

Offline Flash

Re: May 2021
« Reply #14 on: May 01, 2021, 11:38:31 PM »
Could we just have a “normal month” this year?  Ugh! Pool is up and going. Flowers are up and blooming.  I just wish it could be a mellow year.  With all we have been through lately it sure would be nice.  God Bless Us All! 🙏🏻

I'm hopeful, Beth. Hopefully apart from Monday's/Tuesday's storms, May will follow April's tame lead. Best of the luck on the pool front. Stormnine, thanks for the great research and insight as always. 
« Last Edit: May 02, 2021, 02:16:52 PM by Flash »
"By the breath of God ice is given, and the broad waters are frozen fast." ~ Job 37:10 (ESV)

 

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