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Author Topic: April 8-9 Severe Risk (mainly South of TN)  (Read 729 times)

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Offline Thundersnow

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April 8-9 Severe Risk (mainly South of TN)
« on: April 09, 2021, 08:28:57 AM »
Even though TN is not in the bulls eye on this one, this is worth following in a dedicated thread, I think, for concerns mainly further south/southwest, although the southwest part of the state is within the slight risk.


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day1otlk_20210409_1300.html


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210409_0600.html
« Last Edit: April 09, 2021, 08:31:33 AM by Thundersnow »

Offline StormNine

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Re: April 8-9 Severe Risk (mainly South of TN)
« Reply #1 on: April 09, 2021, 09:18:22 AM »
To be honest this is a classic Derecho setup, similar to the setups that we commonly see in May and June.

An intense vort/shortwave riding along a boundary with plenty of instability to spare.   

A strong MCS/Derecho would probably dive towards the Gulf of Mexico which would likely mean that tomorrow's threat may not materialize.   

Offline gcbama

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Re: April 8-9 Severe Risk (mainly South of TN)
« Reply #2 on: April 09, 2021, 09:22:07 AM »
To be honest this is a classic Derecho setup, similar to the setups that we commonly see in May and June.

An intense vort/shortwave riding along a boundary with plenty of instability to spare.   

A strong MCS/Derecho would probably dive towards the Gulf of Mexico which would likely mean that tomorrow's threat may not materialize.

Looks like two derecho events could set up and possibly follow each other...?

Offline gcbama

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Re: April 8-9 Severe Risk (mainly South of TN)
« Reply #3 on: April 09, 2021, 11:44:56 AM »
slight now for 65 west...enhanced moved northward to tn border now....will see how that progresses, i have thought all along today could over preform the initial forecast

Offline Bruce

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Re: April 8-9 Severe Risk (mainly South of TN)
« Reply #4 on: April 09, 2021, 11:59:39 AM »
slight now for 65 west...enhanced moved northward to tn border now....will see how that progresses, i have thought all along today could over preform the initial forecast
i am seeing a over performer for west and some mid tennessee ... with this one
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline StormNine

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Re: April 8-9 Severe Risk (mainly South of TN)
« Reply #5 on: April 09, 2021, 12:31:13 PM »
We don't have intense MCS convection to our direct south at this point so that allows for a brief window of daytime heating and moisture return.  Thankfully we are north of the main warm front so storms will be elevated at least. 

Offline gcbama

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Re: April 8-9 Severe Risk (mainly South of TN)
« Reply #6 on: April 09, 2021, 12:53:43 PM »
i am seeing a over performer for west and some mid tennessee ... with this one

you mean "AN" over performer LOL

Offline gcbama

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Re: April 8-9 Severe Risk (mainly South of TN)
« Reply #7 on: April 09, 2021, 01:34:40 PM »
mcs seems to be having plenty of cells moving northeast.....

Offline Charles L.

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Re: April 8-9 Severe Risk (mainly South of TN)
« Reply #8 on: April 09, 2021, 05:59:24 PM »
Brownsville could be getting some decent hail right now. Numerous hailers east of Memphis.
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Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: April 8-9 Severe Risk (mainly South of TN)
« Reply #9 on: April 09, 2021, 06:25:37 PM »
Pea size hail here with the storm that just came through.

Offline Charles L.

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Re: April 8-9 Severe Risk (mainly South of TN)
« Reply #10 on: April 09, 2021, 09:01:54 PM »
Currently a warning in MS for 90 mph wind gusts. Just south of Okolona.
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