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Author Topic: April 2021  (Read 15521 times)

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Online Bruce

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Re: April 2021
« Reply #390 on: April 29, 2021, 09:21:05 PM »
I’m not sure about that at all. MJO Is going into high high amplitude 1-2 phases through May 20. Those are the coldest phases of April and May. Tornado climatology drops off significantly in Tennessee after mid May. LR models shows lots of below normal temps after early week which definitely correlates to the MJO phases. The high amplitude almost guarantees cool stable-  possibly just rainy weather for the next few weeks. After that, summer normals start to show up.
below norms in May that’s why  think we still see some severe wx... May below will help keep things unsettled actually . Best we go ahead heat up go above than I would say severe wx would be over for this spring ... pna looks still get quite negative . I like to use may 25th as usually the cut off date for classic severe set ups.  Then it’s sweat n heat  time .
« Last Edit: April 29, 2021, 09:32:57 PM by Bruce »
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Offline StormNine

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Re: April 2021
« Reply #391 on: April 30, 2021, 05:13:07 AM »
below norms in May that’s why  think we still see some severe wx... May below will help keep things unsettled actually . Best we go ahead heat up go above than I would say severe wx would be over for this spring ... pna looks still get quite negative . I like to use may 25th as usually the cut off date for classic severe set ups.  Then it’s sweat n heat  time .

The PNA on this looks to be kinda neutral meaning not a significant player on way or the other. 

The Tuesday system has severe weather potential but the fail-safe that was there with the March systems is there with that one and that is the likely chance of widespread convection in MS/AL.   

The pattern may in fact kinda resemble April 2020 or Mid-May 2008 for the next two weeks of May with a beatable SE ridge and disturbances moving along it that is also still getting beaten by the north by cooler air that won't give up. 

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: April 2021
« Reply #392 on: April 30, 2021, 07:35:23 AM »
Does look like several cold shots into May. We shall see.
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline gcbama

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Re: April 2021
« Reply #393 on: April 30, 2021, 08:13:19 AM »
The PNA on this looks to be kinda neutral meaning not a significant player on way or the other. 

The Tuesday system has severe weather potential but the fail-safe that was there with the March systems is there with that one and that is the likely chance of widespread convection in MS/AL.   

The pattern may in fact kinda resemble April 2020 or Mid-May 2008 for the next two weeks of May with a beatable SE ridge and disturbances moving along it that is also still getting beaten by the north by cooler air that won't give up.

Agreed, i think convection in Ms and Bama "could" hinder any threat this way, as has happened so many times in past several years

Online Bruce

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Re: April 2021
« Reply #394 on: April 30, 2021, 09:03:04 AM »
Agreed, i think convection in Ms and Bama "could" hinder any threat this way, as has happened so many times in past several years
i know SPC seems think its quite reasonable for a threat for us tuesday in their 4 - 8 day cast. need little better agreement, we see as we move forward
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Offline Nashville_Wx

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Re: April 2021
« Reply #395 on: April 30, 2021, 09:14:06 AM »
Does look like several cold shots into May. We shall see.

5 feet its looking like.....Spring snow for my flowers.....


Online Bruce

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Re: April 2021
« Reply #396 on: April 30, 2021, 09:14:51 AM »
i think its time start a may discussion maybe... april bout done lol
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Offline Matthew

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Re: April 2021
« Reply #397 on: April 30, 2021, 09:25:46 AM »
With way wx has been and acting differently from what the teleconnections say.  It would be awesome to have a cooler summer with plenty of rain.  Interesting also was France has had its coldest spring ever since records have been kept. Farmers have had lots of damage and lost some of their crops there.  On top of that the drought in South America is drying up rivers so shipping is having issues of getting around.  A report yesterday I read from the Wash. journal said they expect food prices to explode from the damages to crops and drought affecting shipping. Strange times indeed.

Offline Matthew

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Re: April 2021
« Reply #398 on: April 30, 2021, 01:08:28 PM »

Online Bruce

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Re: April 2021
« Reply #399 on: April 30, 2021, 01:12:04 PM »
https://t.me/iceagefarmer/1049

Add Germany now.
just cant be true, beause we have got global warming going in full gear now...
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Offline JayCee

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Re: April 2021
« Reply #400 on: May 05, 2021, 02:35:47 PM »
April 2021 was different in one aspect that previous recent Aprils--far less moisture.  I (and Knoxville) rec'd about an inch and a quarter of rain thanks to a cool, dry northwest flow for much of the month.  That northerly flow also squashed most severe weather threats.  That's one positive IMO.  Although, I know some would disagree.   ;D
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

 

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