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Author Topic: April 2021  (Read 8016 times)

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Offline Clay

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Re: April 2021
« Reply #105 on: April 06, 2021, 01:42:57 PM »
My sedan is black.

Was. She's yellow now.
Me last weekend: I'm going to wash my car, no rain until Wednesday night!

Pollen: I'm about to ruin this man's whole car.

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: April 2021
« Reply #106 on: April 06, 2021, 02:11:52 PM »
Me last weekend: I'm going to wash my car, no rain until Wednesday night!

Pollen: I'm about to ruin this man's whole car.

I applied wax to my Honda.

Now it's a Honeycomb.
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline JayCee

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Re: April 2021
« Reply #107 on: April 06, 2021, 03:04:51 PM »
Last few days have been awesome.  Warm days followed by cool nights, so no heat or air conditioning needed.  You just have to time well when to open and close the windows. 

Redbuds are in full bloom, and dogwoods are close behind.  Hickories are rapidly turning green, and the oaks are about to share their green pollen.  We run a few days to a week behind middle and west TN. 

Spring has sprung. Winter is done. At least until the dogwoods fully bloom.  Then another frost may even be on the table looking at the long range GFS. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline StormNine

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Re: April 2021
« Reply #108 on: April 06, 2021, 07:22:53 PM »
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap.aspx

This drought monitor plus La-Nina climo heading into the Summer provides clues of where our Summer Death Ridges are likely going to setup. 

If I had to call two possible Summer analogs out of this pattern I would go with 2006 and 2017 off the top of my head.  Both average to slightly above average summers with the most intense heat focused more to our west, but with us getting torched pretty good at times. 


Offline Bruce

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Re: April 2021
« Reply #109 on: April 07, 2021, 08:37:52 AM »
SPC  has now put memphis in enhanced risk today with a 10 percent tornado chance. extended the slight risk slightly east north for today.
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline gcbama

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Re: April 2021
« Reply #110 on: April 07, 2021, 08:44:20 AM »
SPC  has now put memphis in enhanced risk today with a 10 percent tornado chance. extended the slight risk slightly east north for today.

saw that one too bruce, still no hatched area, but nothing to sneeze at, we shall see :) I don't see this being outbreak material but several severe weather events are likely

Sure is an interesting SHARP cutoff east to west once you get near jackson as far as threat level for mid state, hardly any cape here

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: April 2021
« Reply #111 on: April 07, 2021, 08:44:25 AM »
Looks like an incoming avocado.


Offline StormNine

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Re: April 2021
« Reply #112 on: April 07, 2021, 08:45:37 AM »
Overall not that sold on today's threat for severe weather in SW Tennessee

- Flow parallel to the front
- Weakening instability as one goes eastward
- Lapse rates not that steep

Still, there is a window for a QLCS to form and perhaps maintain into West TN as shear and instability are just enough, but I suspect the wheels start to really come off any line of strong to severe storms soon after crossing US 51. 

Offline gcbama

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Re: April 2021
« Reply #113 on: April 07, 2021, 08:49:47 AM »
Overall not that sold on today's threat for severe weather in SW Tennessee

- Flow parallel to the front
- Weakening instability as one goes eastward
- Lapse rates not that steep

Still, there is a window for a QLCS to form and perhaps maintain into West TN as shear and instability are just enough, but I suspect the wheels start to really come off any line of strong to severe storms soon after crossing US 51.

I am in agreement with ya

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: April 2021
« Reply #114 on: April 07, 2021, 08:53:51 AM »
There's a pretty large slight risk area on Day 3, from Texas to Alabama, for Friday. Marginal risk makes it up into TN.

Offline Curt

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Re: April 2021
« Reply #115 on: April 07, 2021, 09:30:43 AM »
Consistent BN temps and drier weather look to be the rule for the back half of April. I doubt that includes a freeze- but probably does include lots of sun with 60's during the day and 40's at night.

Offline gcbama

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Re: April 2021
« Reply #116 on: April 07, 2021, 10:13:58 AM »
So far, long range looking like no BIG severe outbreaks for midstate

Offline Bruce

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Re: April 2021
« Reply #117 on: April 07, 2021, 10:14:15 AM »
Consistent BN temps and drier weather look to be the rule for the back half of April. I doubt that includes a freeze- but probably does include lots of sun with 60's during the day and 40's at night.
we better be enjoying it, because after that as we head into may, mid may we are heading right into summer looks like. i say we will see some 100 plus days this summer. ::blowtorch::
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline StormNine

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Re: April 2021
« Reply #118 on: April 07, 2021, 10:16:30 AM »
While the long-range pattern will be good and refreshing for us it will be very rough for the drought regions of Utah and Western Colorado.

The clock for meaningful rain and mountain snow is soon to run out for them before they get blazed by the Sonora Heat Ridge. 

While the blocking and +PNA is good for us and does keep at least significant severe weather out of our hair for longer it does have consequences for others.     

Offline StormNine

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Re: April 2021
« Reply #119 on: April 07, 2021, 10:19:51 AM »
we better be enjoying it, because after that as we head into may, mid may we are heading right into summer looks like. i say we will see some 100 plus days this summer. ::blowtorch::

We could but I am starting to think the true torch straight to hades conditions may stay to our west. With that being said, there are times when it could link up with the Bermuda Ridge or if there is a strong enough Monsoon the ridge will eventually move over to our area or to the Pacific Northwest after mid to late July depending on the general pattern.   

 

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