Your Ideas on Better Severe Weather Communications Methodology

[Thundersnow]

thats awesome, i don't think i have ever seen that used here?

I've seen it. Actually, I've found this text quite common in severe thunderstorm warnings (at least it used to be):

"Remember, severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes."

That's especially the case when a tornado watch is in effect and/or it's understood that conditions on the given day are potentially favorable for tornadoes.

I think (if I'm not wrong), I have even seen the above text included as part of both severe thunderstorm watches and warnings when discussing the storm risks (such as large hail and damaging winds).

Watch/warning text used to be so "canned" that I can just about rattle off a watch text that was typical of the 1980s and 1990s.

"Large hail, dangerous lightning, and damaging thunderstorm winds are possible in the watch area. Persons in this area should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen to later statements and possible warnings. Remember- severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. The counties included in the severe thunderstorm watch area include..."

I listened to an abnormal amount of NOAA Weather Radio as a teen. 

I think at one point my dream job would have been one of the NOAA Weather Radio broadcaster guys... just to read off those text issuances, with all the dramatic inflection I could muster.

I can share that here, because I think some here can understand.

[Thundersnow]

Here you go... from the wayback machine (nearly 20 years ago)... here was a Severe Thunderstorm Watch text:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 257
STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
534 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2001

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

   NORTHERN ALABAMA                           
   EXTREME NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI                       
   WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE                          

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 600 PM UNTIL 1000
PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 80 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTH OF MUSCLE SHOALS
ALABAMA TO 40 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF NASHVILLE TENNESSEE.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 254.  WATCH NUMBER 254 WILL NOT BE
IN EFFECT AFTER 600 PM CDT.  CONTINUE...WW 255...WW 256...

DISCUSSION...BAND OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-
LIVED MESOSCALE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD INTO MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH SBCAPE TO 2000 J/KG.  WINDS ALOFT ARE
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH 30-40 KT IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS
PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL.


AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.  MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 24025.


...WEISS

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/2001/ww0257.html

[gcbama]

I've seen it. Actually, I've found this text quite common in severe thunderstorm warnings (at least it used to be):

"Remember, severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes."

That's especially the case when a tornado watch is in effect and/or it's understood that conditions on the given day are potentially favorable for tornadoes.

I think (if I'm not wrong), I have even seen the above text included as part of both severe thunderstorm watches and warnings when discussing the storm risks (such as large hail and damaging winds).

Watch/warning text used to be so "canned" that I can just about rattle off a watch text that was typical of the 1980s and 1990s.

"Large hail, dangerous lightning, and damaging thunderstorm winds are possible in the watch area. Persons in this area should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen to later statements and possible warnings. Remember- severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. The counties included in the severe thunderstorm watch area include..."

I listened to an abnormal amount of NOAA Weather Radio as a teen. 

I think at one point my dream job would have been one of the NOAA Weather Radio broadcaster guys... just to read off those text issuances, with all the dramatic inflection I could muster.

I can share that here, because I think some here can understand.

I do remember bill hall used to say, if you are under a severe t'storm warning with a tornado watch at same time, treat it like a tornado warning...

[schneitzeit]

I do remember bill hall used to say, if you are under a severe t'storm warning with a tornado watch at same time, treat it like a tornado warning...

I miss that man. He died too young.

[gcbama]

One thing else that spc tends to do at times is put out a high risk /moderate right off the bat on the day of an event that could be a high risk/moderate....i would think it MIGHT be better to wait until the mid morning update to put out a high risk so you can analyze morning data, see how trends are going the day of and let it evolve.

This past enhanced event i believe was handled very well by spc, didn't go overboard to moderate and things played out like an enhanced risk should.

An example of evolving through the day would be Dec 23 2015, started as enhanced, then west TN got included in moderate and then when it was obvious it would extend to middle TN they expanded it again.

[gcbama]

today is another example imo of spc way overshooting things, that arkansas tornado watch has likelihood of HIGH for tornadoes?

Based on their own spc forecasts a "big" tornado threat was never there so that was just an overreach to state HIGH probs for tornadoes in that watch imo?

Yet again it's just the messaging has been off this year so far quite a few times.....

yes that was a very over hyped tornado watch yet again, this time i just don't get it, it never looked like parameters were there for anything like that

[bugalou]

One thing to keep in mind in all this is my comments and idea posted is targeted at the general public and how best to prepare them.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with the SPC producing more detailed and advanced graphics and products for other mets, chasers, and enthusiasts.  I just think there is a suite of products that should be tailored to the public in general.  I am quite partial to my idea for the general public and really hope the SPC and the NWS see it and at least consider some of my thoughts.

[gcbama]

One thing to keep in mind in all this is my comments and idea posted is targeted at the general public and how best to prepare them.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with the SPC producing more detailed and advanced graphics and products for other mets, chasers, and enthusiasts.  I just think there is a suite of products that should be tailored to the public in general.  I am quite partial to my idea for the general public and really hope the SPC and the NWS see it and at least consider some of my thoughts.

yesterday kind of stunk as well as far as marginal /slight risk border tornadoes....we all pay attention to most any risk, but the general population is never going to pay attention to marginal risk and pay very little attention to slight risk, even though it was a good risk outline, people were caught off guard , there is no great answer whenever there are overreaches like earlier this week on the tornado watch bust and then you have a tornado occur when there was not even a severe tstorm watch, it's hard

[bugalou]

As mentioned in the general news forum I posted a link to this thread to a few mets I follow on Twitter.  I invited them to join the forum but they may just skim it and talk privately to me over on twitter.  In any case lets be respectful to all organizations involved with this subject including the the NWS, specific NWS offices, the SPC, private, and local news mets etc.  There is nothing wrong with disagreeing and constructive feed back but lets keep it clean and respectful. Also understand they may have to be careful with their words as some of this stuff is controversial in some circles and this is their careers. Knowing most of you guys for years, I have very little concern with any shenanigans as you guys are all great people (except that Eric guy psssh.  ) . 

My goal with this thread has been to open up a conversation and to help us all not think like meteorologists and/or weather geeks but to consider every day Joes and Janes and how they look at these products.  Yes its very easy to get frustrated and tell them to "act like adults" but that attitude has proven time and time again to not work.  I'm not looking to dumb down the products the SPC and NWS use.  I am looking to improve and create a system custom tailored to  the general public and giving them the best chance of surviving severe weather, especially tornadoes.  We can still have our probabilistic charts with dashed areas, sigtor values, and skew ts and they will continue to provide critical info to those of us in the know.  We just need to have something else for none weather folks that's purely simple, brief, and informative.

I have become increasingly passionate about this subject and am becoming a bit of an advocate trying to spread the word and get the conversations going.  My solution is likely not "the" solution but it may be add key parts to an overall better product.

[Eric]

Knowing most of you guys for years, I have very little concern with any shenanigans as you guys are all great people (except that Eric guy psssh.  ) .