April 8-9 Severe Risk (mainly South of TN)

[Thundersnow]

Even though TN is not in the bulls eye on this one, this is worth following in a dedicated thread, I think, for concerns mainly further south/southwest, although the southwest part of the state is within the slight risk.


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day1otlk_20210409_1300.html


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210409_0600.html

[StormNine]

To be honest this is a classic Derecho setup, similar to the setups that we commonly see in May and June.

An intense vort/shortwave riding along a boundary with plenty of instability to spare.   

A strong MCS/Derecho would probably dive towards the Gulf of Mexico which would likely mean that tomorrow's threat may not materialize.   

[gcbama]

To be honest this is a classic Derecho setup, similar to the setups that we commonly see in May and June.

An intense vort/shortwave riding along a boundary with plenty of instability to spare.   

A strong MCS/Derecho would probably dive towards the Gulf of Mexico which would likely mean that tomorrow's threat may not materialize.

Looks like two derecho events could set up and possibly follow each other...?

[gcbama]

slight now for 65 west...enhanced moved northward to tn border now....will see how that progresses, i have thought all along today could over preform the initial forecast

[Bruce]

slight now for 65 west...enhanced moved northward to tn border now....will see how that progresses, i have thought all along today could over preform the initial forecast

i am seeing a over performer for west and some mid tennessee ... with this one

[StormNine]

We don't have intense MCS convection to our direct south at this point so that allows for a brief window of daytime heating and moisture return.  Thankfully we are north of the main warm front so storms will be elevated at least. 

[gcbama]

i am seeing a over performer for west and some mid tennessee ... with this one

you mean "AN" over performer LOL

[gcbama]

mcs seems to be having plenty of cells moving northeast.....

[Charles L.]

Brownsville could be getting some decent hail right now. Numerous hailers east of Memphis.

[Dyersburg Weather]

Pea size hail here with the storm that just came through.

[Charles L.]

Currently a warning in MS for 90 mph wind gusts. Just south of Okolona.