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Author Topic: March 25, 2021 Outbreak  (Read 17050 times)

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Offline Eric

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Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
« Reply #795 on: March 26, 2021, 04:47:35 PM »
I don’t believe so. Suspect what you saw was a wet microburst from the hail core

Yes.  NWS determined it to be a wet microburst with 85mph winds.
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Offline Navywxman

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Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
« Reply #796 on: March 26, 2021, 06:00:50 PM »
Newnan, GA tornado upgraded to preliminary EF-4.


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Offline StormNine

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Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
« Reply #797 on: March 26, 2021, 08:05:07 PM »
Newnan, GA tornado upgraded to preliminary EF-4.


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I think that is probably the biggest beef with the SPC is when you have MDT's and HIGH's that underperform but you get that in the Slight Risk zone.

Granted Charles has a point, but outside of the Southern MS tornadoes last year all of the violent tornadoes, the past 3 years have occurred in Marginal to Enhanced Risk zones. That does sting. 


Offline StormNine

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Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
« Reply #798 on: March 26, 2021, 08:06:59 PM »
I think if we just lose the names and start going by numbers that will help somewhat. 

Really Slight, Marginal, Enhanced, Moderate, etc. those are pretty subjective and can be hard for a public member that doesn't care about weather to understand.

I am glad to see more broadcast METS actually using the numbers instead of the names.  I do both when I do discussions on my page. 

Offline Navywxman

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Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
« Reply #799 on: March 26, 2021, 08:47:57 PM »
Smyrna confirmed EF-1 & Gladeville EF-0.


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Offline gcbama

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Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
« Reply #800 on: March 26, 2021, 10:20:35 PM »
the other thread won't allow replies????

Offline Matthew

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Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
« Reply #801 on: March 26, 2021, 10:26:56 PM »
Smyrna confirmed EF-1 & Gladeville EF-0.


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The Smyrna one was 4 miles from my house.  No wonder it got so still when I went out to look.

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
« Reply #802 on: March 26, 2021, 10:27:23 PM »
the other thread won't allow replies????

Try it now.

It was locked, and I unlocked it.

I checked the logs, and it looks like I locked it. Not intentional. Sorry for the inconvenience.
« Last Edit: March 26, 2021, 10:31:41 PM by Thundersnow »

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
« Reply #803 on: March 27, 2021, 06:53:24 AM »
Should check this out. Yes, SPC forecasters even made big mistakes back in the 80s. But a lot of those high risk days verified.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Storm_Prediction_Center_high_risk_days
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline StormNine

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Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
« Reply #804 on: March 27, 2021, 08:05:08 AM »
Should check this out. Yes, SPC forecasters even made big mistakes back in the 80s. But a lot of those high risk days verified.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Storm_Prediction_Center_high_risk_days

Look even at 4/14/12.  An event where the NW side of the KS/OK verified well but there was nothing down in Oklahoma City which was under a 45% hatched.   

Offline StormNine

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Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
« Reply #805 on: March 27, 2021, 08:05:57 AM »
This system did produce a high-end EF-1 with an injury in Vermont yesterday afternoon.   

Offline gcbama

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Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
« Reply #806 on: March 27, 2021, 08:29:20 AM »
Look even at 4/14/12.  An event where the NW side of the KS/OK verified well but there was nothing down in Oklahoma City which was under a 45% hatched.

it sure does happen sometimes, i have seen high risk days for only 10 tornadoes verified

Offline mempho

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Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
« Reply #807 on: March 27, 2021, 08:44:51 AM »
Thought I’d give an update. We had a supercell with strong, but broad, rotation moving into the east side of bham (where I live). All media and NWS focus was on the buzz saw going through Shelby county. I told my wife and kids to head to the basement and finally we got a warning. By that point there was all ready a tds (but not yet updated on RadarScope) so I was standing on my second floor porch (we have a split level) recording video. Things turned really green and creepy after 10 seconds so I went inside to get my things to take to the basement and suddenly it was on us. Technically I think it was just across the street. Regardless our house is not damaged. But all our neighbors have trees through their homes. We live adjacent to a nature preserve so there are tons of old growth trees throughout the neighborhood. Probably 5 houses near me will have to be demoed. One completely cut in half right on the ridge line of the roof.

Still without power, and probably will be without for a couple days.

I was really mad at NWS for not warning the storm earlier. A lot of people just to the east had literally seconds from the time their phones went off until the tornado was on them.
Wow

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Offline gcbama

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Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
« Reply #808 on: March 30, 2021, 03:17:23 PM »
did the nws complete all surveys , i never heard if the lewis county damage was from the tornado that hit wayne county as well?

Offline Navywxman

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Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
« Reply #809 on: March 30, 2021, 04:05:48 PM »
did the nws complete all surveys , i never heard if the lewis county damage was from the tornado that hit wayne county as well?
It began 3mi ENE of Waynesboro & ended 4.5mi NW of Summertown. The survey text does say "extreme southern Lewis County" but haven't seen a track map posted yet. They're likely forthcoming but delayed somewhat given recent & ongoing issues, particularly related to flooding & then the massive comms failure overnight and into this morning.

 

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