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Author Topic: March 25, 2021 Outbreak  (Read 17045 times)

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Offline kristin

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March 25, 2021 Outbreak
« Reply #780 on: March 26, 2021, 08:36:04 AM »
Good Lord, what a fiasco that was.

My son lives in Rutherford Co so I follow you on twitter.  I'm assuming it's you :)

Do you have any suggestions for severe weather follows closer to Crossville - Knoxville?

Offline Eric

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March 25, 2021 Outbreak
« Reply #781 on: March 26, 2021, 08:43:57 AM »
My son lives in Rutherford Co so I follow you on twitter.  I'm assuming it's you :)

Do you have any suggestions for severe weather follows closer to Crossville - Knoxville?

He is I and I am him.  Slim with a tilted brim.  Thanks for following!

Hit up @CumberlandWx.  Unfortunately Crossville/Cumberland Co is as far east as we go.
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Offline kristin

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March 25, 2021 Outbreak
« Reply #782 on: March 26, 2021, 08:48:37 AM »
He is I and I am him.  Slim with a tilted brim.  Thanks for following!

Hit up @CumberlandWx.  Unfortunately Crossville/Cumberland Co is as far east as we go.

You did a great job last night!!  Thanks for the suggestion, I'll check it out!

Offline bugalou

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Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
« Reply #783 on: March 26, 2021, 11:11:56 AM »
There is literally damage in Smyrna from a, likely, tornado and you are still claiming bust.

I just can’t with people anymore. Now I remember why I took a hiatus from this site. ****.

It’s almost as if unless we have hundreds of tornadoes and dozens of deaths every event will be a bust in some peoples eyes.

Last time I checked EF-0 and EF-1 tornadoes have caused damage and loss of life. Why are y’all not wanting to count them in the official tally in regards to if a high or mdt risk verified or not?

And the hatched tornado risk zones say there is a 10% chance of a significant tornado within 25 miles of any point in that zone. You know what that means? There is a 90% chance a significant tornado WON’T touch down.

People fail to look at the percentages. All they see is the categorical risk and run with it. Much like how people just read the headline of an article and don’t dig deeper

For what it's worth I count all tornadoes, not just major ones.  That said, I appreciate your side of things man, I really do.   Please do not take it personally or get upset.  Between you and I its just discussion and I consider you a valuable member of this community.  If its something you do not want to debate, fair enough I will lay off.  I just enjoy a spirited conversation and you are representing your side well.  In the end though, its nothing but love. 

Online gcbama

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Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
« Reply #784 on: March 26, 2021, 11:24:06 AM »
There is literally damage in Smyrna from a, likely, tornado and you are still claiming bust.

I just can’t with people anymore. Now I remember why I took a hiatus from this site. ****.

It’s almost as if unless we have hundreds of tornadoes and dozens of deaths every event will be a bust in some peoples eyes.

Last time I checked EF-0 and EF-1 tornadoes have caused damage and loss of life. Why are y’all not wanting to count them in the official tally in regards to if a high or mdt risk verified or not?

And the hatched tornado risk zones say there is a 10% chance of a significant tornado within 25 miles of any point in that zone. You know what that means? There is a 90% chance a significant tornado WON’T touch down.

People fail to look at the percentages. All they see is the categorical risk and run with it. Much like how people just read the headline of an article and don’t dig deeper

I " think" what some were getting at is high risk and moderate risk wording from spc outlooks is usually about "many" strong violent tornadoes ? I get both sides though.
I certainly do not want an ef0 near my home either!!

To the spc credit, yesterday they started trimming the western edges of the moderate and high risk because they saw it was just not going to happen there. Again people forget that a high risk is 30% probs , that means there is a 70% chance of it not happening as well.

While i do think the moderate risk was overdone in hindsight in this area that does not mean that a few tornadoes didn't occur, but at this point it does not look like any long track tornadoes happened, but the threat was real and SPC did the best they could, i would not say it was a massive bust up this way, but it did underwhelm just a bit as compared to the wording of the spc outlook and nws offices. But they do their best!

the atmosphere will do what it wants, just like there are other instances of the opposite happening....1999 moore outbreak was slight risk day until the afternoon when spc saw it was a supercharged day and upgraded to high risk, you just can't be perfect
« Last Edit: March 26, 2021, 11:27:35 AM by gcbama »

Offline bugalou

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Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
« Reply #785 on: March 26, 2021, 11:57:57 AM »
Cameron Nixon on Twitter said this:
Quote
Amazing illustration of where I hope research and forecasting is headed. Less focus on predicting the hazards themselves based off parameter statistics, more focus on understanding when supercell structures will be "built" to be capable of these hazards.

This is the biggest point I suppose I am trying to make by my comments yesterday.  Focusing on parameter statistics has about peaked in how good they can predict these outbreaks leading to under performance and busts.  The SPC did everything right based on the data, yet we had huge swaths of the risk areas that saw nothing, and other areas in much lower risk see strong violent tornadoes.  Parts of the issue is in the social science side of how risks are shared as well.  Personally I think the whole risk outlook system along with how we warn for tornadoes is flawed and the whole thing needs a good reboot.  I have my own ideas but I will not get into that here.
« Last Edit: March 26, 2021, 04:49:13 PM by Eric, Reason: formatting »

Online gcbama

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Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
« Reply #786 on: March 26, 2021, 12:07:50 PM »
Cameron Nixon on Twitter said this:
Quote
Amazing illustration of where I hope research and forecasting is headed. Less focus on predicting the hazards themselves based off parameter statistics, more focus on understanding when supercell structures will be "built" to be capable of these hazards.

This is the biggest point I suppose I am trying to make by my comments yesterday.  Focusing on parameter statistics has about peaked in how good they can predict these outbreaks leading to under performance and busts.  The SPC did everything right based on the data, yet we had huge swaths of the risk areas that saw nothing, and other areas in much lower risk see strong violent tornadoes.  Parts of the issue is in the social science side of how risks are shared as well.  Personally I think the whole risk outlook system along with how we warn for tornadoes is flawed and the whole thing needs a good reboot.  I have my own ideas but I will not get into that here.

even spann the man said yesterday , "this is not unfolding how the models showed", i am like you, not saying anything really busted as much as it didn't pan out as modeled
« Last Edit: March 26, 2021, 04:48:41 PM by Eric, Reason: formatting »

Offline justinmundie

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Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
« Reply #787 on: March 26, 2021, 01:27:16 PM »
Thought I’d give an update. We had a supercell with strong, but broad, rotation moving into the east side of bham (where I live). All media and NWS focus was on the buzz saw going through Shelby county. I told my wife and kids to head to the basement and finally we got a warning. By that point there was all ready a tds (but not yet updated on RadarScope) so I was standing on my second floor porch (we have a split level) recording video. Things turned really green and creepy after 10 seconds so I went inside to get my things to take to the basement and suddenly it was on us. Technically I think it was just across the street. Regardless our house is not damaged. But all our neighbors have trees through their homes. We live adjacent to a nature preserve so there are tons of old growth trees throughout the neighborhood. Probably 5 houses near me will have to be demoed. One completely cut in half right on the ridge line of the roof.

Still without power, and probably will be without for a couple days.

I was really mad at NWS for not warning the storm earlier. A lot of people just to the east had literally seconds from the time their phones went off until the tornado was on them.
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Offline JayCee

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Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
« Reply #788 on: March 26, 2021, 01:34:08 PM »
Thought I’d give an update. We had a supercell with strong, but broad, rotation moving into the east side of bham (where I live). All media and NWS focus was on the buzz saw going through Shelby county. I told my wife and kids to head to the basement and finally we got a warning. By that point there was all ready a tds (but not yet updated on RadarScope) so I was standing on my second floor porch (we have a split level) recording video. Things turned really green and creepy after 10 seconds so I went inside to get my things to take to the basement and suddenly it was on us. Technically I think it was just across the street. Regardless our house is not damaged. But all our neighbors have trees through their homes. We live adjacent to a nature preserve so there are tons of old growth trees throughout the neighborhood. Probably 5 houses near me will have to be demoed. One completely cut in half right on the ridge line of the roof.

Still without power, and probably will be without for a couple days.

I was really mad at NWS for not warning the storm earlier. A lot of people just to the east had literally seconds from the time their phones went off until the tornado was on them.

Wow.  Glad you and your family made it through safely.
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Offline budrow014

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Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
« Reply #789 on: March 26, 2021, 02:49:39 PM »
Did the big hailer storm that went through Nashville ever have a couplet? I’m an adjuster and went to Portland today to look at a few homes. There was a nice path about 3-4 miles long that looked like EF1 damage. Was quite surprised as the storm was never tornado warned that I remember.

Offline Matthew

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Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
« Reply #790 on: March 26, 2021, 03:00:29 PM »
Cameron Nixon on Twitter said this:
Quote
Amazing illustration of where I hope research and forecasting is headed. Less focus on predicting the hazards themselves based off parameter statistics, more focus on understanding when supercell structures will be "built" to be capable of these hazards.

This is the biggest point I suppose I am trying to make by my comments yesterday.  Focusing on parameter statistics has about peaked in how good they can predict these outbreaks leading to under performance and busts.  The SPC did everything right based on the data, yet we had huge swaths of the risk areas that saw nothing, and other areas in much lower risk see strong violent tornadoes.  Parts of the issue is in the social science side of how risks are shared as well.  Personally I think the whole risk outlook system along with how we warn for tornadoes is flawed and the whole thing needs a good reboot.  I have my own ideas but I will not get into that here.


Totally agree.  Charles you are awesome and I do enjoy your input.  In no way am I meaning to say I don’t care.  Last night I saw a forecaster in North MS tweeted his last 2 weeks predictions busted.  That he and the SPC both busted.  This is an actual forecaster willing to admit they were wrong.  He also said he was going to try and do better and figure out what he and the SPC missed.  He apologized.  No one asked him to apologize but I understand his response.  Many peoples lives are affected by what they say. 
« Last Edit: March 26, 2021, 04:50:15 PM by Eric, Reason: formatting »

Offline justinmundie

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Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
« Reply #791 on: March 26, 2021, 03:06:51 PM »
Did the big hailer storm that went through Nashville ever have a couplet? I’m an adjuster and went to Portland today to look at a few homes. There was a nice path about 3-4 miles long that looked like EF1 damage. Was quite surprised as the storm was never tornado warned that I remember.

I don’t believe so. Suspect what you saw was a wet microburst from the hail core
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Online gcbama

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Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
« Reply #792 on: March 26, 2021, 03:10:10 PM »

Totally agree.  Charles you are awesome and I do enjoy your input.  In no way am I meaning to say I don’t care.  Last night I saw a forecaster in North MS tweeted his last 2 weeks predictions busted.  That he and the SPC both busted.  This is an actual forecaster willing to admit they were wrong.  He also said he was going to try and do better and figure out what he and the SPC missed.  He apologized.  No one asked him to apologize but I understand his response.  Many peoples lives are affected by what they say.

yes i can say i think the mississippi area was a bust, BUT the system overall did produce some big damage in Bama ( as usual) it was a high impact event maybe not exactly a high risk verification we just don't know yet, BUT when a forecast doesn't go as planned in any event there is always a chance to LEARN what happened, I am no met but would love to learn what happened to cause the models to be off by about 100 miles to the east for the initiantion zone in mississippi, had it initiated in the wide open western warm sector as forecast it would have ben a BAD BAD day for a lot more people including us here in southern mid state....we may never know

Another thing is nws mets in different areas forecast very differently as well, for instance tomorrow spc has i-65 west in a hatched zone of 10 percent tornado probs, that is just a heart beat away from being in a moderate risk category yet nws ohx hazard page says chance is low, when that is exactly why there is an enhanced risk, so messaging is very off a lot of the time
« Last Edit: March 26, 2021, 03:13:56 PM by gcbama »

Offline Charles L.

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Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
« Reply #793 on: March 26, 2021, 03:24:59 PM »
NWS found EF-2 damage in Wayne County and determined straight line winds of 85 mph caused the damage in Nashville and Portland. They still have to survey Lewis County area as well as Smyrna up to Gladeville.
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Online gcbama

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Re: March 25, 2021 Outbreak
« Reply #794 on: March 26, 2021, 03:29:39 PM »
NWS found EF-2 damage in Wayne County and determined straight line winds of 85 mph caused the damage in Nashville and Portland. They still have to survey Lewis County area as well as Smyrna up to Gladeville.

I knew wayne HAD to be one it was close to crossing into lewis for a bit like you mentioned

 

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