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Author Topic: March 25, 2021 Outbreak  (Read 17070 times)

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Offline Thundersnow

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March 25, 2021 Outbreak
« on: March 23, 2021, 05:08:34 AM »
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day3otlk_20210323_0730.html

SPC is coming in fairly bullish on Thursday’s risk. Similar placement as last week’s risk, although I will say it includes more of TN than last week’s, including hatching on the map.



Quote
Day 3 Convective Outlook 
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0240 AM CDT Tue Mar 23 2021

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
   OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A potential outbreak of severe storms including strong tornadoes,
   large hail and damaging wind will exist Thursday afternoon into the
   overnight across a portion of the lower Mississippi Valley and
   Southeast States.

I guess we’ll see how this one works out. 

OHX is emphasizing a heavy rain concern.
« Last Edit: March 24, 2021, 01:07:31 PM by Thundersnow »

Offline Bruce

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March 25, 2021 Outbreak
« Reply #1 on: March 23, 2021, 06:00:04 AM »
If the nam is right going be a large outbreak from Lower parts Ohio valley down central ms Alabama . But may be bit bullish at this range .
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline mamMATTus

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March 25, 2021 Outbreak
« Reply #2 on: March 23, 2021, 07:29:43 AM »
Please, no. I'm moving Thursday and driving a 15' UHaul down 24E over Monteagle in the afternoon.

Offline gcbama

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March 25, 2021 Outbreak
« Reply #3 on: March 23, 2021, 08:19:24 AM »
well seems like spc extended risk much farther north as of right now than last event, hatched area all the way up into extreme southern Kentucky, yet again will all depend on a possible morning rain shield hindering warm front it looks like. If that Low pressure stays closer to St louis region I think it "could" be trouble for us....

Offline NismoWx

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March 25, 2021 Outbreak
« Reply #4 on: March 23, 2021, 08:46:32 AM »
Please, no. I'm moving Thursday and driving a 15' UHaul down 24E over Monteagle in the afternoon.

You'll be alright. The roughest part is on the S/SE slope. Might get a good cross gust at the bottom of the mountain, but I've driven a semi down it mannnnnny times. The wind isn't that bad until it flattens out.

Offline jwr2914

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March 25, 2021 Outbreak
« Reply #5 on: March 23, 2021, 08:49:49 AM »
Now this one looks more promising for storm chasers. If we can avoid a morning rain shield, game on.
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Offline gcbama

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March 25, 2021 Outbreak
« Reply #6 on: March 23, 2021, 10:14:32 AM »
interesting silence since entire midstate per spc is under hatched risk...wonder if last event produced apathy

Offline NismoWx

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March 25, 2021 Outbreak
« Reply #7 on: March 23, 2021, 10:23:34 AM »
interesting silence since entire midstate per spc is under hatched risk...wonder if last event produced apathy
I'm waiting for better model data before I start sounding the alarm.

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Offline gcbama

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March 25, 2021 Outbreak
« Reply #8 on: March 23, 2021, 10:26:12 AM »
I'm waiting for better model data before I start sounding the alarm.

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I am not sounding any alarm , just love to see discussion on here from people smarter than me :)

Online Charles L.

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March 25, 2021 Outbreak
« Reply #9 on: March 23, 2021, 10:26:44 AM »
interesting silence since entire midstate per spc is under hatched risk...wonder if last event produced apathy

No, I think it is just people taking a wait and see approach.
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Offline gcbama

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March 25, 2021 Outbreak
« Reply #10 on: March 23, 2021, 10:32:55 AM »
i found it interesting BMX seemed to lean more toward higher end threat being north of I-20/59

Offline JKT1987

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March 25, 2021 Outbreak
« Reply #11 on: March 23, 2021, 10:34:13 AM »
Outside of the NAM (which tends to be too bullish) I don’t see any data that impressive for severe chances for this state at least. Not that it can’t turn around and SPC be onto something…. But I’m fairly confused by the Enhanced Risk right now….

Offline gcbama

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March 25, 2021 Outbreak
« Reply #12 on: March 23, 2021, 10:43:06 AM »
Outside of the NAM (which tends to be too bullish) I don’t see any data that impressive for severe chances for this state at least. Not that it can’t turn around and SPC be onto something…. But I’m fairly confused by the Enhanced Risk right now….

Watch this event be the one that over preforms when it wasn't expected unlike the last event, wouldn't that be typical lol

Offline gcbama

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March 25, 2021 Outbreak
« Reply #13 on: March 23, 2021, 10:58:27 AM »
it seems gfs is now on a northwest trend toward euro

Offline Bruce

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March 25, 2021 Outbreak
« Reply #14 on: March 23, 2021, 11:14:11 AM »
Outside of the NAM (which tends to be too bullish) I don’t see any data that impressive for severe chances for this state at least. Not that it can’t turn around and SPC be onto something…. But I’m fairly confused by the Enhanced Risk right now….
lets get that look on nam tonite and tomorrow mornings run then maybe it’s on to something . Euro did have a healthier warm sector.  Gfs was being less aggressor on thermals and dynamics
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

 

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