Heavy Rain/Flooding/Severe Risk: Feb 27-28

[Ultra mag 1971]

I'm assuming the size of a lime, which would pretty well total your car and destroy your roof lol.

lol I thought it was a typo for dime size never heard them say lime size

[mamMATTus]

This cell west of Centerville has my attention

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[Beth]

Mine too since it is headed my way.  😖

[Bruce]

Cells back over in east central Arkansas starting get better organized.

[Ultra mag 1971]

Warning on that Arkansas cell

[StormNine]

Storms in the Missouri Boothill/NW Tennessee area have some tornadic potential if they can get a bit more organized.  That area is closer to the boundary and therefore winds are a bit more backed.   

[mamMATTus]

Looks like we have a few chasers lined up along 65S. I may join them shortly. Does anyone happen to know the HAM frequency that spotters/chasers use in Middle TN? This is the first year where I actually have one and can listen in.

[Charles L.]

I’d be issuing a TOR Warning now for Rives, MO.

[StormNine]

I’d be issuing a TOR Warning now for Rives, MO.

The one about to move into Lake County TN looks pretty suspicious as well. 

[StormNine]

Also of concern is that our Missouri Boothill crew of storms will move their wonderful selves across hard-hit flooded southern KY as well.  Very dangerous flooding situation in my part of Kentucky.  Thankfully I am on a hill but I am not looking forward to what 2-4 more inches of rain can do from Murray to Hopkinsville to Bowling Green.   

[JKT1987]

Everything seems to be a clustered mess so far...which was not entirely unexpected...but nothing is really able to root into the surface boundary layer to really go off. There also appears to be a little boundary noticeable on NQA sliding SE which seems to be undercutting the convection which also prohibits the storms from rooting to fully surface-based.

[Charles L.]

Also of concern is that our Missouri Boothill crew of storms will move their wonderful selves across hard-hit flooded southern KY as well.  Very dangerous flooding situation in my part of Kentucky.  Thankfully I am on a hill but I am not looking forward to what 2-4 more inches of rain can do from Murray to Hopkinsville to Bowling Green.

The situation along the TN/KY border is rapidly changing more into a widespread flash flood event than other forms of severe wx to my eyes.

[mamMATTus]

000
FXUS64 KOHX 282121
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
321 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Went with a blended model solution through next Sunday
afternoon. Continued good initialization and generally good
solution agreement of weather evolution pattern through next
Sunday afternoon also. Significant rainfall event still in
works for tonight with now severe thunderstorms possible
through at least 01/04Z for locations around and west of
the I-65 Corridor.

28/18Z Special OHX Sounding showing very moist profile in low
levels giving around 1.4 inches of precipitable water. Mixed layer
CAPE around 450 J/KG with strong wind shear. SRH values around
400 with some turning of winds in the lowest levels adequate
enough for tornadic development. Still believe damaging winds
with heavy downpours will be main concern with any severe
thunderstorms that develop. Looks like best window for main brunt
of showers and thunderstorms around Nashville Metro Area will be
around 9 PM this evening.

Taking a even a closer look, the warm front has continued to
tracking northeastward, with a tight surface/low level lows across
Great Lakes Region doing the same. Movement of these lows will
drag its associated cold front across mid state region as evening
hours progress and potentially even into late night hours. Mid
and upper level flow not especially impressive as it is continuing
to be depicted by latest model runs along with surface cold front.
As a result, it may take some time for deep moisture/widespread
rain to move out as well. Showers and thunderstorms have develop
across northwest portions of mid state as afternoon hours have
progressed. It will more than likely take through sunrise Monday
for heavier precipitation to move out of mid state region. With
much of the area already seeing several inches of rain over the
past few days, the flood threat will continue through early
morning hours on Monday, especially rivers and creeks that will
likely stay elevated for several upcoming days. Continued flood
watch through tonight with another 1-2 inches of rainfall possible.

[JKT1987]

The area SE of Searcy within the severe segment of convection (the only there is right now) does show some QLCS TOR potential over the next half hour....seems to be it to me as of now...

[JKT1987]

The area SE of Searcy within the severe segment of convection (the only there is right now) does show some QLCS TOR potential over the next half hour....seems to be it to me as of now...

As I said that LZK let the SVR expire so now nothing severe going on