Heavy Rain/Flooding/Severe Risk: Feb 27-28

[Thundersnow]

Warrants a thread I think.

[cgauxknox]

The potential for widespread flooding definitely exists with the upcoming system, although lets hope that this thread turns out to be a total bust.

Congrats to all our hardworking admins that made the server migration and got us back up and running in our new home! 

[David]

The potential for widespread flooding definitely exists with the upcoming system, although lets hope that this thread turns out to be a total bust.

Congrats to all our hardworking admins that made the server migration and got us back up and running in our new home! 

Let me know if you see any issues

[JayCee]

The first round of moisture and rain is gathering in Texas and Arkansas.  That will be in our neck of the woods by tomorrow.

[Dyersburg Weather]

The first round of moisture and rain is gathering in Texas and Arkansas.  That will be in our neck of the woods by tomorrow.

Last week we were like come to daddy.

[Thundersnow]

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
335 AM CST Fri Feb 26 2021

...Flooding Possible Sunday into the Start of Next Week...

Moderate to heavy rainfall will impact Middle Tennessee through
the weekend, especially Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.
By Sunday morning, areas along and south of I-40 could see 1 to 2
inches of rain. This may cause area creeks and streams to begin
rising on Sunday. Soils remain nearly saturated from the recent
snowmelt, and just a little rain will have a big impact on water
levels. For Sunday into early Monday, widespread additional
amounts of 1 to 3 inches of rainfall are possible. Total amounts
are expected to range between 1 and 4 inches for most of the Mid
State. It is also possible rainfall amounts exceed 4 to 5 inches
by Monday morning, especially in southern and eastern counties.

The larger creeks and rivers will continue to rise on Monday and
Tuesday, and it is possible some of these waterways crest near or
even exceed Flood Stage resulting in minor flooding concerns on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Rivers that are likely to be affected are the
Cumberland River from Old Hickory Dam through Dover, the Harpeth
River from the Franklin area through Kingston Springs, the Duck
River from Shelbyville through Hurricane Mills, the Tennessee River
downstream of Pickwick Dam, and the adjacent tributaries near the
Alabama state line. It is possible the lower portions of the
Tennessee River and the Cumberland River remain high through most of
next week.

While the exact location of higher rainfall amounts is yet to be
determined, it is imperative that if you have interests near
areas that are known to flood, that you pay close attention to
rainfall forecasts over the next couple of days.

[snowdog]

Last week we were like come to daddy.

Last week was a good week. My kids actually got tired of sledding. Who knew?

[Eric]

Last week was a good week. My kids actually got tired of sledding. Who knew?

Maybe they'll get tired of rowing this week.

[snowdog]

Maybe they'll get tired of rowing this week.

New season of Warzone came out evidently, so I'm sure that will keep my son occupied this weekend.

[dwagner88]

GFS says this thread needs to be extended through next weekend. More heavy rain shown.

[Thundersnow]

Assuming model trends, OHX has backed off on rainfall amounts over the weekend... 2-4" instead of 4-6"

[Thundersnow]

Lightning detection is picking up strikes west of Nashville toward the TN River along I-40.

Some will likely hear downpours and rumbles of thunder overnight.

[Eric]

Looks like the rain train has set up along and just slightly north of I-40 for tonight.  Areal flood advisories in effect as 1-2" has already fallen.

[mamMATTus]

Today might be the first day ever where I genuinely pay attention to a marginal risk due to the events of last year.

[schneitzeit]

Today might be the first day ever where I genuinely pay attention to a marginal risk due to the events of last year.

Those are the days you gotta watch out for. The Christmas Eve F4 tornado in 1988 hit Williamson County at 6am and was entirely unexpected.

And I'm currently seated in a building that was right in the path of the '88 F4 (it was not built at the time). Should I be scared? lol