March 2021

[gcbama]

is there going to be a thread for the 10% tornado probs for west of 65 to discuss? Or is everybody still arguing over busts and spc lol

[schneitzeit]

is there going to be a thread for the 10% tornado probs for west of 65 to discuss? Or is everybody still arguing over busts and spc lol

Need to focus on Saturday. I'm in the Enhanced risk.

[gcbama]

Need to focus on Saturday. I'm in the Enhanced risk.

stp's on the nam have steadily risen from jackson east to I-65

plus lets not forget our massive history of over preforming in tennessee on slight and enhanced risks heck, even marginal (march 2020) being a prime example

[gcbama]

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=uh25_max&rh=2021032612&fh=38&r=us_ov&dpdt=&mc=


https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=uh25_max&rh=2021032612&fh=38&r=us_ov&dpdt=&mc=


hmmmm

[JayCee]

April fools'!

[dwagner88]

Don’t be surprised if we bust high on QPF again on the Tuesday/Wednesday system. The GFS is once again making a last minute adjustment upwards. All of the globals have been low on QPF for all of these systems since mid March.

[Thundersnow]

Some frost in the area this morning. Brief warm-up before next system on Wednesday (hopefully not enough rain to complicate saturated grounds and high rivers from this weekend). That will finish off the month of March, before a cold start to April and subsequent warm-up again by the weekend.

[Thundersnow]

Well, there's this from the OHX AFD:

This will be primarily a rain event,
which is not something we want with the ground still saturated and
rivers and streams running so full. At this time, storm total QPF
from Tuesday evening through Wednesday ranges from 1" to 1.5",
which would ordinarily be no cause for alarm. But many areas will
be ill-equipped to bear the additional burden of more rainfall.

[schneitzeit]

Well, there's this from the OHX AFD:

That's not good. Places like Ensworth @ Bellevue were (and might still be) submerged. The stress of 1-2" of additional rainfall is really going to hurt these low-lying areas.

I heard on Lightning 100 driving in to work this morning that a locality north of Franklin measured 8.66" of rain. The May 2010 event was something like 15-20" for the same area, but this past weekend's rain event was no joke.

[Thundersnow]

OHX has issued a flash flood watch for Middle TN Tuesday night through Wednesday night.

[gcbama]

OHX has issued a flash flood watch for Middle TN Tuesday night through Wednesday night.

It sure won't take much to make things just a bit worse

[Thundersnow]

NWS sites seem to be having issues.

[joemomma]

NWS sites seem to be having issues.

Yep, our zone forecast is unavailable.

[Thundersnow]

It's working now.

[gcbama]

nice to see an event come through with only 2% tornado probs!

Although crazier things have happened ( putnam county) seems to be a general t storm issue with more heavy rain