March 2021

[JayCee]

Still no significant rain showing up in 7 days in TN in March.  Someone flipped a switch and turned the weather off. 

[gcbama]

hard to believe next week it is daylight savings time weekend !

Will love the sun setting after 6pm again

[Coach B]

Curious- what do you define as the Plains and Midwest?

To me, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK and TX are the plains, and the eastern parts of NM, CO, WY and MT. I would consider MO, IA, MN, WI, IL, IN, MI and OH the Midwest.

I read an article recently that stated that western NY and Pennsylvania are more culturally midwestern than they are northeastern. In fact, many from Buffalo, Rochester, and Pittsburg consider themselves midwesterners. Settlement patterns from the 1800s heavily influence this, but I'm sure there is a political side also as many probably don't want to identify as northeastern.

[Thundersnow]

Reading back at earlier posts, one thing I was wrong about was the first half of the month being wet.

I was wrong because the models (at that time) were wrong. We had last weekend’s system to end February, but I think that even underperformed the QPF that was forecast.

I think we *might* go wetter the second half of the month, but we’ll see.

[Bruce]

Reading back at earlier posts, one thing I was wrong about was the first half of the month being wet.

I was wrong because the models (at that time) were wrong. We had last weekend’s system to end February, but I think that even underperformed the QPF that was forecast.

I think we *might* go wetter the second half of the month, but we’ll see.

yeah, second half month look both wetter n stormier.

[David]

yeah, second half month look both wetter n stormier.

Bruce, lets not forget about your prophecy of severe weather the 2nd week of March.

[Thundersnow]

 

[cloudcrash619]

Curious- what do you define as the Plains and Midwest?

To me, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK and TX are the plains, and the eastern parts of NM, CO, WY and MT. I would consider MO, IA, MN, WI, IL, IN, MI and OH the Midwest.

Nebraska is on the plains, though everyone here refers to the area as the midwest. It might be a different story out towards the panhandle though where you're basically in Wyoming. There's probably some overlap since plains is more geographical and midwest more cultural.

[Bruce]

Bruce, lets not forget about your prophecy of severe weather the 2nd week of March.

trust me, its matter time. actually i was wrong . we already had a threat though minor...

[StormNine]

Nebraska is on the plains, though everyone here refers to the area as the midwest. It might be a different story out towards the panhandle though where you're basically in Wyoming. There's probably some overlap since plains is more geographical and midwest more cultural.

Nebraska is both plains and the Midwest. You can divide the Midwest into 3 regions:  Corn Belt, Great Lakes, and Plains. 

Just like parts of N TN and KY are considered both the Ohio Valley and the South (Upper South in particular).   

[JayCee]

I have always thought calling states like Ohio and Indiana as "Midwest" as being an archaic term from just after the colonial days when the "west" was seen as anything beyond the Mississippi River.  So, of course, those states between the East Coast and the Mississippi River were in the middle, or the Midwest.  Nowadays, we know some of these states are clearly in the eastern U.S. and no where near the middle.  So, labeling them as the Ohio Valley or Mississippi Valley may be more accurate in terms of location.  On those terms, the Plains are clearly in the middle.

[Matthew]

Maybe the severe wx goes straight to plains and Midwest.  Skipping mid south completely. One can hope.

[Bruce]

That is one strong closed off low on today’s euro for late next week ..

[StormNine]

That is one strong closed off low on today’s euro for late next week ..

A lot of that is probably the Euro's bias of holding energy back to the southwest. The Canadian model run shows a strong Iowa low but the upper dynamics are going to be too detached from the moisture return.

Overall not too impressed with widespread significant severe weather until probably later in the month and areas north of I-40 may have to wait till April.  I tend to think that our severe weather season will mimic our winter season in that we will have an active season that will probably be focused on a few weeks in April. 

[StormNine]

THE GV16 is a bit like the Euro. We could get a decent QLCS event if that and especially the Euro were to verify but more so for the Arklatex region and not necessarily our region.  The trough is probably too sharp for anything discrete but this is past 7 days so that can and will change.