March 2021

[gcbama]

I wasn't discounting that, just stating the area basically saw only 1 significant supercell split between the chaos to the north & the morning disrespect in the Huntsville area that pummeled Chattanooga as well.

No worries!
It's so interesting though to me how in the past year we had two f3+ supercell tornadoes in the south in what was considered marginal to barely slight risk environment . You just never know

[StormNine]

No worries!
It's so interesting though to me how in the past year we had two f3+ supercell tornadoes in the south in what was considered marginal to barely slight risk environment . You just never know

Every deadly tornado in Kentucky or Tennessee in the last five years has occurred during a Marginal, Slight, or Enhanced Risk.

With low-amp troughs that is what you have to watch for those classic Oh **** Slight/Enhanced Risk events.  It may not always be the sexy sub 990mb low in Iowa that is your textbook Moderate to High Risk.  Backed winds, solid moisture return, at least decent to good shear, and just 500-700 CAPE can take of business just like our more highly sheared/unstable events can. 

[andyhb]

Bruce will go big. He'll drive out to Oklahoma and storm the Storm Prediction Center in Norman.

Don't you put that evil on us.

[gcbama]

Every deadly tornado in Kentucky or Tennessee in the last five years has occurred during a Marginal, Slight, or Enhanced Risk.

With low-amp troughs that is what you have to watch for those classic Oh **** Slight/Enhanced Risk events.  It may not always be the sexy sub 990mb low in Iowa that is your textbook Moderate to High Risk.  Backed winds, solid moisture return, at least decent to good shear, and just 500-700 CAPE can take of business just like our more highly sheared/unstable events can.

Agreed many mets now a days get so caught up in cape values , if not 1,000 or above they think nothing can happen

[Thundersnow]

Other than somewhat wet at times, it's looking like a calm first half of March to me... nothing particularly interesting on the temperature side of things (50s-60s for highs with 40s for lows). I still don't see much to write home about on either severe or winter weather fronts... just a generous hydration of soils and water tables as we move into early spring.

Hopefully, there will be some nice days between systems.

[Bruce]

Other than somewhat wet at times, it's looking like a calm first half of March to me... nothing particularly interesting on the temperature side of things (50s-60s for highs with 40s for lows). I still don't see much to write home about on either severe or winter weather fronts... just a generous hydration of soils and water tables as we move into early spring.

Hopefully, there will be some nice days between systems.

severe Weather starts second week March... and winter is done here . Guess wet times  for now appears ...

[David]

severe Weather starts second week March... and winter is done here . Guess wet times  for now appears ...

Book it! Bruce can you pinpoint the locations that will be seeing Severe weather in 3 weeks?

[Bruce]

Book it! Bruce can you pinpoint the locations that will be seeing Severe weather in 3 weeks?

yes sir ... just not exactly towns ...

[StormNine]

Here the recent (past decade or so examples of deadly tornadoes or EF-3+ that have occurred in less than Moderate Risks:  This is not a diss at the SPC, but just showing us that even Marginal Risks like today and tomorrow need to be watched.
   

Carolina Beach, NC (EF-3 on Feb 2021 with a Slight Risk)

Fultondale, AL (EF-3 on Jan 2021 with a Slight Risk)

NW Minnesota (EF-4 on 7/8/2020 with a Slight Risk 2-5% tornado)

Chattanooga, TN (EF-3), Seneca, SC (EF-3), and Hampton, SC (EF-4) Easter 2020 Tornado Outbreak (these tornadoes occurred outside of the MDT risk zone. 

Cookeville, TN (EF-4): Occurred in a Marginal Risk zone with a 0% tornado probability on 3/3/2020.  Additional tornadoes occurred in the general thunderstorm region. 

Camden, TN (EF-2) and Nashville/Mt. Juliet/Lebanon (EF-3) occurred in a 5% tornado Slight Risk on 3/2/3/3/2020

Lee County, AL (EF-4) In an Enhanced Risk Zone deadliest since 4/27/2011 

Christiana, TN (Nov 2018) Deadly EF-2 in an Enhanced Risk Zone

Logan/Robertson County TN and NE Arkansas deadly EF-2 tornadoes and a significant EF-2 tornado in Clarksville (Feb 2018) all in an Enhanced Risk Zone.  One of the most active tornado events as far as raw number in the KY/TN border region.   
 
Ocoee, TN area (Nov 2016): Overshadowed by the major Sevier County wildfire during that same timeframe a deadly EF-3 tornado hits Polk County. Polk County was under a Marginal Risk at the time.

Mayfield, KY area (May 2016) A pretty potent regional outbreak occurred during a Slight to Enhanced Risk with several EF-1 to EF-2 tornadoes plus the Mayfield EF-3 and many 2+ inch hail events.  One of the more intense tornado/hail events of the decade for Western KY.   

Leap Day 2012:  A major outbreak occurred across the Ozarks across the Ohio River Valley in areas that had a Slight to Enhanced Risk of severe weather.  This included some EF-3 and one EF-4 tornado.

January 2012: The NWS of Louisville CWA reports its largest January Tornado Outbreak under the equivalent of a Marginal Risk. Some tornadoes reach up to EF-2 strength.   

New Years' Eve 2010: Deadly tornadoes strike NW Arkansas and the Ozarks. Most of the events occurred with the equivalent of a no-risk to barely in a Slight Risk. Probably the worst miss in the modern era.

1/7/2008   One of about 3 events in the Ozarks in 2008 that went more berserk than forecast.  The definition of the Oh **** Slight Risk with tornadoes from the Ozarks to Wisconsin.  Wisconsin wasn't even under a Slight Risk when it was hit by an EF-3 tornado which was one of the furthest north January tornadoes on record.   

11/5-11/6/2005:  The Evansville/Henderson EF-3 tornado occurred in a Slight Risk. 

[StormNine]

While we highlighted some of the worst events we should note that when the SPC issues a High Risk they aren't playing around even though it has been 9-10 years since that occurred.

3/2/2012
5/25/2011
4/26-4/27/2011
2/5/2008
4/7/2006
11/15/2005
5/30/2004
5/4-5/5/2003
11/10/2002
5/5/1999
1-21/1-22/1999
4/16/1998

Really the only ones that underperformed a bit were the two most recent, but they did feature more significant tornado activity just outside of our area. 

[schneitzeit]

Incredibly useful information. Thank you.

[mempho]

I will not be giving up on March for winter.  I am against this "General Weather" subforum.

Lions unite in the Winter subforum.  FIVE FEET DEEP (and March can do it)!

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

[Bruce]

Everything seems to be a clustered mess so far...which was not entirely unexpected...but nothing is really able to root into the surface boundary layer to really go off. There also appears to be a little boundary noticeable on NQA sliding SE which seems to be undercutting the convection which also prohibits the storms from rooting to fully surface-based.

the 0z gfs is starting to show some fantasy big time severe weather threats . See if we hold on that solution as time draws near .

[Flash]

Here the recent (past decade or so examples of deadly tornadoes or EF-3+ that have occurred in less than Moderate Risks:  This is not a diss at the SPC, but just showing us that even Marginal Risks like today and tomorrow need to be watched.
   

Carolina Beach, NC (EF-3 on Feb 2021 with a Slight Risk)

Fultondale, AL (EF-3 on Jan 2021 with a Slight Risk)

NW Minnesota (EF-4 on 7/8/2020 with a Slight Risk 2-5% tornado)

Chattanooga, TN (EF-3), Seneca, SC (EF-3), and Hampton, SC (EF-4) Easter 2020 Tornado Outbreak (these tornadoes occurred outside of the MDT risk zone. 

Cookeville, TN (EF-4): Occurred in a Marginal Risk zone with a 0% tornado probability on 3/3/2020.  Additional tornadoes occurred in the general thunderstorm region. 

Camden, TN (EF-2) and Nashville/Mt. Juliet/Lebanon (EF-3) occurred in a 5% tornado Slight Risk on 3/2/3/3/2020

Lee County, AL (EF-4) In an Enhanced Risk Zone deadliest since 4/27/2011 

Christiana, TN (Nov 2018) Deadly EF-2 in an Enhanced Risk Zone

Logan/Robertson County TN and NE Arkansas deadly EF-2 tornadoes and a significant EF-2 tornado in Clarksville (Feb 2018) all in an Enhanced Risk Zone.  One of the most active tornado events as far as raw number in the KY/TN border region.   
 
Ocoee, TN area (Nov 2016): Overshadowed by the major Sevier County wildfire during that same timeframe a deadly EF-3 tornado hits Polk County. Polk County was under a Marginal Risk at the time.

Mayfield, KY area (May 2016) A pretty potent regional outbreak occurred during a Slight to Enhanced Risk with several EF-1 to EF-2 tornadoes plus the Mayfield EF-3 and many 2+ inch hail events.  One of the more intense tornado/hail events of the decade for Western KY.   

Leap Day 2012:  A major outbreak occurred across the Ozarks across the Ohio River Valley in areas that had a Slight to Enhanced Risk of severe weather.  This included some EF-3 and one EF-4 tornado.

January 2012: The NWS of Louisville CWA reports its largest January Tornado Outbreak under the equivalent of a Marginal Risk. Some tornadoes reach up to EF-2 strength.   

New Years' Eve 2010: Deadly tornadoes strike NW Arkansas and the Ozarks. Most of the events occurred with the equivalent of a no-risk to barely in a Slight Risk. Probably the worst miss in the modern era.

1/7/2008   One of about 3 events in the Ozarks in 2008 that went more berserk than forecast.  The definition of the Oh **** Slight Risk with tornadoes from the Ozarks to Wisconsin.  Wisconsin wasn't even under a Slight Risk when it was hit by an EF-3 tornado which was one of the furthest north January tornadoes on record.   

11/5-11/6/2005:  The Evansville/Henderson EF-3 tornado occurred in a Slight Risk.

Great research. Thank you for taking the time to post. Despite the periodical whiffs, you can see SPC has gradually improved with time. 3/3/20 was the ultimate overachiever for our area. We'll be citing this event for a long time in terms of cautioning people to take the 'slight' risks seriously. For the record, the bottom half of the risk zone criteria wording still drives me crazy but that's another topic for another day.

[Thundersnow]

I will not be giving up on March for winter.  I am against this "General Weather" subforum.

Lions unite in the Winter subforum.  FIVE FEET DEEP (and March can do it)!

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Just to weigh in on something here-

Last year, we decided to start keeping track of day to day discussion in month-specific threads. The "General Weather" subforum makes sense as a place to keep those, since all kinds of weather could happen in any given month. I noticed that some of the recent months, like December, January, and February, got created in the Winter Weather subforum. That's fine, I guess, since it's been the winter season, But, if I had noticed or thought about it, I might have even moved those under this General subforum. These month threads can include all kinds of weather... whatever weather may occur in these months. Just because a month thread is in General does not mean we're saying winter weather might not occur during the month. If a wintry weather system shows up and warrants a thread, guess where it's going to go? In the Winter Weather subforum. It's the same as if a severe weather system occur during a winter month. We'll put that in the Severe Weather subforum. There may be general discussion that occurs in the month thread, but when it comes time to break out into a specific discussion about winter or severe weather, it should go into the appropriate subforum.