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Author Topic: March 2021  (Read 12436 times)

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Offline schneitzeit

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Re: March 2021
« Reply #150 on: March 23, 2021, 01:20:30 PM »
although the long track tornadoes and violent tornadoes did not occur, i think it would still qualify as an official outbreak, over 35+ tornadoes , what is interesting though is hardly any were in the hatched 45% area....it's hard to pinpoint what qualifies a true high risk....to me 35-40 tornadoes is an outbreak BUT nothing above ef2 kind of mitigates it as well....it's splitting hairs.

Agree. I would like for a met. to chime in on this. Does last week's event qualify as an outbreak?

I suppose the answer is yes, according to ol' reliable: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_outbreak
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline gcbama

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Re: March 2021
« Reply #151 on: March 23, 2021, 01:31:14 PM »
Agree. I would like for a met. to chime in on this. Does last week's event qualify as an outbreak?

I suppose the answer is yes, according to ol' reliable: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_outbreak

Hard to believe one of our biggest events was Jan 29th 2013 , a Qlcs that produced 20+ tornadoes in the mid state alone, that was quite rare and very much an outbreak, most of our tornadoes occurred in the slight risk area as well that night

Offline Jeremy

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Re: March 2021
« Reply #152 on: March 23, 2021, 02:13:54 PM »
You also have to question what exactly was hit last week as well. It's hard to get anything over EF2 if you can't find EF2+ damage. That's been a large issue before in parts of the south. Just look at the break between F5/EF5 tornadoes in the past for Mississippi. Mississippi had 0 between the 1966 Candlestick Park tornado and the EF5s of the 2011 super outbreak. As more areas have growth and development, they offer up capital that can be damaged or destroyed which can increase ratings in damage surveys. I was extremely close to a tornado in Carney, OK on 5/19/13 that was part of the multi-day central Oklahoma tornado outbreak. You can see our GPS location on the screenshot near the circulation.  It had a 21 mile path and was nearly 3/4 of a mile wide. It had violent motion & a few horizontal vortices but it was mostly in a rural area. We came across one home that had been swiped by it but didn't see much in the way of damage outside of that and power lines or trees. It was rated an EF3 but I believe had it been in a more populated or developed area, then it would have a much higher rating. [ Guests cannot view attachments ] [ Guests cannot view attachments ]

Offline gcbama

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Re: March 2021
« Reply #153 on: March 23, 2021, 02:34:09 PM »
You also have to question what exactly was hit last week as well. It's hard to get anything over EF2 if you can't find EF2+ damage. That's been a large issue before in parts of the south. Just look at the break between F5/EF5 tornadoes in the past for Mississippi. Mississippi had 0 between the 1966 Candlestick Park tornado and the EF5s of the 2011 super outbreak. As more areas have growth and development, they offer up capital that can be damaged or destroyed which can increase ratings in damage surveys. I was extremely close to a tornado in Carney, OK on 5/19/13 that was part of the multi-day central Oklahoma tornado outbreak. You can see our GPS location on the screenshot near the circulation.  It had a 21 mile path and was nearly 3/4 of a mile wide. It had violent motion & a few horizontal vortices but it was mostly in a rural area. We came across one home that had been swiped by it but didn't see much in the way of damage outside of that and power lines or trees. It was rated an EF3 but I believe had it been in a more populated or developed area, then it would have a much higher rating. (Attachment Link) (Attachment Link)

you know that is a great point as well! That el reno area tornado in 2013 i think only got rated an official ef3 as well even though wind estimates were much much higher

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: March 2021
« Reply #154 on: March 23, 2021, 03:25:29 PM »
This is when it would be beneficial to use the Torro scale. The Torro scale only factors in wind speed while the Fujita scale rates tornadoes by analyzing damage.

The Torro rating is determined by this forumula:
v = 0.837 (2T+8)3/2 m/s

Insert v for the max wind speed at 2m above the ground level and solve for T.
« Last Edit: March 23, 2021, 08:06:55 PM by schneitzeit »
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline Eric

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Re: March 2021
« Reply #155 on: March 23, 2021, 03:27:47 PM »
This is when it would be beneficial to use the Torro scale. The Torro scald only factors in wind speed while the Fujita scale rates tornadoes by analyzing damage.

The Torro rating is determined by this forumula:
v = 0.837 (2T+8)3/2 m/s

Insert v for the max wind speed at 2m above the ground level and solve for T.

I've never heard of such an animal.

*fires up the Google machine*
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Offline StormNine

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Re: March 2021
« Reply #156 on: March 23, 2021, 04:48:00 PM »
Agree. I would like for a met. to chime in on this. Does last week's event qualify as an outbreak?

I suppose the answer is yes, according to ol' reliable: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_outbreak

I wouldn't consider the Wed event a bust maybe a slightly underperforming event but not a bust.  Now the MDT risk the next day in the Carolinas that is probably one of the worst modern-day SPC busts.   

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: March 2021
« Reply #157 on: March 23, 2021, 08:16:20 PM »
I've never heard of such an animal.

*fires up the Google machine*

With radar and data from storm chasers it may be easier to estimate tornadic wind speed instead of having to assess damage to determine it
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline JayCee

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Re: March 2021
« Reply #158 on: March 24, 2021, 12:25:46 PM »
The redbud winter cold snap early next week looks less intense, and shorter-lived.  The earlier forecasted 50's have been replaced with lower 60's for just one day, and freezing temperatures appear unlikely for most of us.  The 12Z GFS is still showing a cold intrusion around early April; however, with possible frost and/or freezing temperatures. 
« Last Edit: March 24, 2021, 12:28:28 PM by JayCee »
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Offline JayCee

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Re: March 2021
« Reply #159 on: March 24, 2021, 01:54:33 PM »
Pushing near 80 here in the foothills thanks to some downsloping winds.  77 IMBY, and 79 at the Sevierville airport.   
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: March 2021
« Reply #160 on: March 24, 2021, 02:46:02 PM »
This is when it would be beneficial to use the Torro scale. The Torro scale only factors in wind speed while the Fujita scale rates tornadoes by analyzing damage.

The Torro rating is determined by this forumula:
v = 0.837 (2T+8)3/2 m/s

Insert v for the max wind speed at 2m above the ground level and solve for T.

Correction: v is the max wind speed at 10m AGL, not 2m.

TORRO is a European thang but I think it's pretty useful. You'll see tornado reports in Germany that say "Powerful T5 tornado hits downtown, kills 2 and injures 20. Millions in damage as roofs were torn off businesses and trees uprooted"
« Last Edit: March 24, 2021, 03:49:38 PM by schneitzeit »
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline JayCee

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Re: March 2021
« Reply #161 on: March 24, 2021, 04:25:18 PM »
First 80 degree temp here for 2021 thanks to downsloping.  I was warmer than most of Tennessee, Texas and Dixie.  Never underestimate the power of wind going down a mountain. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: March 2021
« Reply #162 on: March 25, 2021, 06:32:52 PM »
I think we’ve been so focused on today’s system that no one noticed there’s a slight risk for Saturday for much of the state.

We’ll see about that. Other than that, March will be winding down. I expect Curt will show up and tell us about the chance of a freeze late next week soon. 😀

Offline Bruce

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Re: March 2021
« Reply #163 on: March 25, 2021, 09:36:39 PM »
I think we’ve been so focused on today’s system that no one noticed there’s a slight risk for Saturday for much of the state.

We’ll see about that. Other than that, March will be winding down. I expect Curt will show up and tell us about the chance of a freeze late next week soon. 😀
i was just about  speak of the threat Saturday. Looking more like a wind threat as now
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Bruce

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Re: March 2021
« Reply #164 on: March 26, 2021, 01:37:59 AM »
Well guess we can’t sleep on Saturday now is turned into enhanced for most west tennessee n parts middle Tennessee . 10percent 🌪 chance added
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

 

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