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Author Topic: Feb 14-16 MAJOR WINTER STORM (Verified Event)  (Read 144807 times)

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Offline Thundersnow

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Feb 14-16 MAJOR WINTER STORM (Verified Event)
« on: February 11, 2021, 06:26:52 AM »
With temperature profiles and the system moving in, the potential is there of a significant winter storm affecting much of the state late Sunday night into Tuesday. The question to be answered is precip type placement and how much. Go.

(Edit: for the record, I did not add that extra tidbit in parentheses on the title.
« Last Edit: February 15, 2021, 08:55:09 PM by bugalou »

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: Feb 15-16 Possible Winter Storm
« Reply #1 on: February 11, 2021, 06:31:33 AM »
I feel pretty good about this one.

Offline Dyersburg Weather

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Re: Feb 15-16 Possible Winter Storm ( 5 ft deep )
« Reply #2 on: February 11, 2021, 06:35:06 AM »
Hope you don

Offline Thundersnow

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Offline Woodvegas

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Re: Feb 15-16 Possible Winter Storm ( 5 ft deep )
« Reply #4 on: February 11, 2021, 07:20:34 AM »
2/11 6Z GFS and 0Z Euro both give my backyard about 0.7 in of precip for Monday-Tuesday. Looks like a mixed bag of frozen stuff but a lot of freezing rain. Hopefully it will trend more toward snow.
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Offline Clint

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Re: Feb 15-16 Possible Winter Storm ( 5 ft deep )
« Reply #5 on: February 11, 2021, 07:56:57 AM »
The 850 temps are colder on the 06Z Euro in West Tennessee for 2/15 and 2/16. It looks like a mixed bag of precipitation with a 4

Offline Bruce

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Re: Feb 15-16 Possible Winter Storm ( 5 ft deep )
« Reply #6 on: February 11, 2021, 08:02:40 AM »
The 850 temps are colder on the 06Z Euro in West Tennessee for 2/15 and 2/16. It looks like a mixed bag of precipitation with a 4
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Offline snowdog

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Re: Feb 15-16 Possible Winter Storm
« Reply #7 on: February 11, 2021, 08:21:00 AM »
I feel pretty good about this one.

I'm not all that impressed at the moment. Right now, best case for our area is a massive sleet fest, worst case is a massive ice storm. Unless all modeling is getting 850's wrong, snow doesn't look likely. Looks a lot like Feb 2015 all over again.

Offline Bruce

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Re: Feb 15-16 Possible Winter Storm
« Reply #8 on: February 11, 2021, 08:26:15 AM »
I'm not all that impressed at the moment. Right now, best case for our area is a massive sleet fest, worst case is a massive ice storm. Unless all modeling is getting 850's wrong, snow doesn't look likely. Looks a lot like Feb 2015 all over again.
so you pretty much discounting the gfs then? curious thats all on your thoughts
« Last Edit: February 11, 2021, 08:29:04 AM by Bruce »
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Offline Nash_LSU

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Re: Feb 15-16 Possible Winter Storm
« Reply #9 on: February 11, 2021, 08:27:10 AM »
I'm not all that impressed at the moment. Right now, best case for our area is a massive sleet fest, worst case is a massive ice storm. Unless all modeling is getting 850's wrong, snow doesn't look likely. Looks a lot like Feb 2015 all over again.

I'm with you on this one. As of right now, it doesn't look good for us with this system in the metro Nashville area.

Offline Eric

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Re: Feb 15-16 Possible Winter Storm
« Reply #10 on: February 11, 2021, 08:29:35 AM »
so you pretty much discounting the gfs then? curios thats all

Euro says the same thing.  There's a sharp delineation on both models concerning p-type.  Areas W of the TN River are more likely to see all snow, those between the river and the foothills of the Plateau sleet, and the Plateau ice.  If the 850s start cooling off then, we've got a game, but this just doesn't look good for most folks E of the river.
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Offline Nash_LSU

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Re: Feb 15-16 Possible Winter Storm
« Reply #11 on: February 11, 2021, 08:30:58 AM »
so you pretty much discounting the gfs then? curious thats all on your thoughts

GFS is currently showing us right in the bullseye of 1/2" of ice, and then right on the sharp snow cutoff line. Past experience says the ice verifies and the snow line retreats NW.



« Last Edit: February 11, 2021, 08:33:12 AM by Nash_LSU »

Offline Clarksville Snowman

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Re: Feb 15-16 Possible Winter Storm ( 5 ft deep )
« Reply #12 on: February 11, 2021, 08:31:07 AM »
Looks close between sleet and snow for me right now. It's for sure something to watch. It could easily trend a little more either way, it wouldn't take much of a southeast push to get many in play. ::popcorn:: ::yum:: ::cold:: ::snowman::

Offline Bruce

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Re: Feb 15-16 Possible Winter Storm ( 5 ft deep )
« Reply #13 on: February 11, 2021, 08:34:42 AM »
Looks close between sleet and snow for me right now. It's for sure something to watch. It could easily trend a little more either way, it wouldn't take much of a southeast push to get many in play. ::popcorn:: ::yum:: ::cold:: ::snowman::
true... at least this does look like a major winter storm thats going to effect two thirds of tennessee at least at this time. due to the projectory and path of slp as now, further west you are does look more snowy. but nothing is written in stone just yet. word is little rock arkansas could be getting close to a foot of snow from this system alone
« Last Edit: February 11, 2021, 08:36:31 AM by Bruce »
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Offline Charles L.

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Re: Feb 15-16 Possible Winter Storm ( 5 ft deep )
« Reply #14 on: February 11, 2021, 08:36:16 AM »
I
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