*

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length


Author Topic: February 2021  (Read 35949 times)

Clint and 3 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline StormNine

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 5,023
  • Location: Hopkinsville KY/ Bowling Green KY
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 188
February 2021
« on: January 27, 2021, 05:27:03 AM »
The long-range pattern is starting to resemble a pattern favorable for overrunning events during the first half of the month.  This likely will be our last window this winter minus a mid-March to April hail-mary as late Feb has a higher than normal chance to be a continent-wide blowtorch. 

Offline Bruce

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 8,946
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2786
Re: February 2021
« Reply #1 on: January 27, 2021, 08:11:26 AM »
The long-range pattern is starting to resemble a pattern favorable for overrunning events during the first half of the month.  This likely will be our last window this winter minus a mid-March to April hail-mary as late Feb has a higher than normal chance to be a continent-wide blowtorch.
yeah these next 3 weeks  or so can
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Curt

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 8,629
  • Location: Arlington, TN(Memphis suburb)
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: February 2021
« Reply #2 on: January 27, 2021, 10:26:13 AM »
0z EPS now has a full blown negative EPO while maintaining neg AO/NAO. PNA is slightly negative. Should have a fairly cold pattern coming up after the first few days of February.

Offline schneitzeit

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,601
  • Location: SW Williamson County
  • Tornado Alley moved SE.
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2201
Re: February 2021
« Reply #3 on: January 27, 2021, 08:10:33 PM »
I viewed TWC's extended forecast for my area. I just had to laugh at this:

[ Guests cannot view attachments ]

A forecast for 3 to 5 inches, 9 days away. I know this is generated by an algorithm, but still. I think it would be wise to not include any forecast for specific accumulation amounts more than 5-7 days in advance. After a week, maximum, it should say, "accumulating snow possible."


Of course, Accuweather does that out to 90 days, but they've always been on crack over there.
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Online Clint

  • Severe Thunderstorm
  • ****
  • Posts: 311
  • Location: Olive Branch, Ms.
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 546
Re: February 2021
« Reply #4 on: January 27, 2021, 11:56:47 PM »
The 0Z GFS shows the coldest air of the season arriving between 2/5 thru 2/12.  If it verifies, our Winter weather chances increase significantly with this air mass over our region.


Offline Navywxman

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,265
  • Location: St. Louis, MO
  • US Navy meteorologist
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 96
Re: February 2021
« Reply #5 on: January 28, 2021, 03:54:32 AM »
The 0Z GFS shows the coldest air of the season arriving between 2/5 thru 2/12.  If it verifies, our Winter weather chances increase significantly with this air mass over our region.


The CMC is a complete opposite of that. Given it's still beyond 7 days out, i wouldn't doubt if that extreme is backed off from.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2021, 05:06:01 AM by NashRugger »

Offline Curt

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 8,629
  • Location: Arlington, TN(Memphis suburb)
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: February 2021
« Reply #6 on: January 28, 2021, 09:37:21 AM »
The NAO and AO looks to hit perhaps record negative levels over the next 2 weeks and beyond. EPO going to try and go negative as well. Not sure how much the PNA will cooperate but a little resistance isn

Offline Dyersburg Weather

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,725
  • Location: North of 40
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 734
Re: February 2021
« Reply #7 on: January 28, 2021, 01:31:58 PM »
We've seen this before but both the GFS and PGFS have all kind of potential in the long range.

Offline Coach B

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,337
  • Location: Marshall County
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 315
Re: February 2021
« Reply #8 on: January 28, 2021, 01:37:29 PM »
We've seen this before but both the GFS and PGFS have all kind of potential in the long range.
I like the fact that some of these good looks keep working closer in time. We'll see if it holds or if the rug gets pulled, but a period of favorable cold at least looks more and more likely.


Offline DocB

  • TNWX Supporter
  • Severe Thunderstorm
  • ******
  • Posts: 433
  • Location: Historic Nolensville, TN (20m SSE of Nashville)
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 305
Re: February 2021
« Reply #9 on: January 28, 2021, 01:48:48 PM »
I like the fact that some of these good looks keep working closer in time. We'll see if it holds or if the rug gets pulled, but a period of favorable cold at least looks more and more likely.


9 days out + NW Trend = I'll take it.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2021, 04:37:42 PM by DocB »

Offline snowdog

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 5,574
  • Location: Mt. Juliet, TN
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 260
Re: February 2021
« Reply #10 on: January 28, 2021, 02:23:33 PM »
Day 10 Euro has brutal cold to our NW. Talking -30 to -40F 2m temps up in northern Montana and just over the Canadian border. That is impressive cold. It will be interesting to watch what happens with all that cold over the next few days. 

Offline schneitzeit

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,601
  • Location: SW Williamson County
  • Tornado Alley moved SE.
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2201
Re: February 2021
« Reply #11 on: January 28, 2021, 02:25:32 PM »
Day 10 Euro has brutal cold to our NW. Talking -30 to -40F 2m temps up in northern Montana and just over the Canadian border. That is impressive cold. It will be interesting to watch what happens with all that cold over the next few days.

Thank goodness. They are way overdue for a cold spell like that. Eastern MT and Alberta have torched all winter.
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline Bruce

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 8,946
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2786
Re: February 2021
« Reply #12 on: January 28, 2021, 02:39:11 PM »
Day 10 Euro has brutal cold to our NW. Talking -30 to -40F 2m temps up in northern Montana and just over the Canadian border. That is impressive cold. It will be interesting to watch what happens with all that cold over the next few days.
also day 10 euro starting pop up little se ridge . Interesting indeed. Could be nice battle zone setting up. Wouldn
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Curt

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 8,629
  • Location: Arlington, TN(Memphis suburb)
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: February 2021
« Reply #13 on: January 28, 2021, 02:43:56 PM »
Day 10 Euro has brutal cold to our NW. Talking -30 to -40F 2m temps up in northern Montana and just over the Canadian border. That is impressive cold. It will be interesting to watch what happens with all that cold over the next few days.
Pretty much all teleconnections on the 12z EPS are favorable for an huge arctic intrusion except the PNA which is highly unfavorable. It really tries to push southeast but just can
« Last Edit: January 28, 2021, 02:45:50 PM by Curt »

Offline Clarksville Snowman

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 2,571
  • Location: Woodlawn
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 2655
Re: February 2021
« Reply #14 on: January 28, 2021, 02:49:49 PM »
It will be interesting to see if we finally get a true cold shot. I do think in early  February to Mid February seems to be our best last chance to see a week or 2 window on good winter weather. It would be nice to at least get one good to great winter weather event between now and mid february. If we somehow manage multiple good events I would be happy and wouldn't care if the rest of february and march went warm. It would send me into mowing season happy. Also in closing, I was watching the Tennessee mens basketball game against Mississippi State the other night and they mentioned that 1/3 of all meteorologist come from Mississippi State. I never knew that, it's pretty wild if you think about it.

 

*

Heavy Rain/Flooding Concerns: Feb 27-28
by Eric
[Yesterday at 11:29:50 PM]
February 2021
by Clint
[Yesterday at 10:43:34 PM]
The Tornado Videos Thread
by schneitzeit
[Yesterday at 09:25:12 PM]
March 2021
by Bruce
[Yesterday at 03:09:11 PM]
Long Range Discussion: Winter 2020-2021
by Curt
[February 24, 2021, 05:49:41 PM]