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Unfortunately, even in the near-term going into meteorological spring, the signs are there that flooding may become a widespread issue for much of the region due to completely saturated soils.There is relatively strong agreement that 3-5in of rainfall is likely over the next 2 weeks.
While confidence is low on the track andplacement of associated frontal boundaries with this system, theoverall consensus is for broad southerly flow and deep Gulf moistureadvection. Ensemble means and deterministic guidance all pointtowards PWAT values reaching near to above 1.0" Sunday and intoMonday, which is climatologically significant for this time of year.Based on BNA sounding climatology, these values are near to abovedaily max PWAT values for late Feb/early Mar. Although confidence isvery limited at this temporal scale, these indications may allow forpersistent, potentially heavy rainfall locally. With antecedentrainfall expected, very general HWO wording for at least isolatedflooding will be utilized to give everyone a heads up. This systemwill certainly be something to watch in the coming days forpotential flooding.
...and as soon as I open my big mouth about having capacity in the system, you post a 6"-12" rainfall map. I should just keep my mouth shut.
My yard is completely saturated. Nothing but water seeping up as we walk on it. I would think 5