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Author Topic: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk  (Read 1309 times)

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Offline Thundersnow

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1/25/2021 Severe Risk
« on: January 25, 2021, 09:13:08 AM »
FWIW, marginal storm risk for the day:



https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day1otlk_20210125_1300.html

Quote
   ...Arklatex to parts of Ohio/Tennessee Valleys...
   A near-frontal band of convection, with widely scattered embedded
   thunderstorms, is apparent on the western rim of the outlook area.
   This activity will continue to shift eastward through the day in an
   environment of favorable deep/speed shear but marginal instability,
   offering the threat for isolated severe wind gusts and marginal
   hail.  A tornado cannot be ruled out.

Offline mamMATTus

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Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
« Reply #1 on: January 25, 2021, 01:57:23 PM »
Looks a little suspect.

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« Last Edit: January 25, 2021, 03:06:29 PM by mamMATTus, Reason: Decrease Size »

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
« Reply #2 on: January 25, 2021, 02:08:36 PM »
Well... seems we don't need to exactly sleep on today's risk.



https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day1otlk_20210125_2000.html

Quote
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
   ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA
   INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few severe thunderstorms are possible this evening within a
   corridor across northeastern Mississippi and northwestern Alabama
   into middle Tennessee.  This includes a risk for potentially
   damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes.

   ...20Z Outlook Update...
   Adjustments to the categorical and probabilistic outlook lines were
   made to account for the progression of synoptic and sub-synoptic
   features, and latest trends concerning ongoing destabilization.

   ...Mid South vicinity...
   Low-level moisture return is ongoing on southerly return flow across
   the lower Mississippi into Tennessee Valleys.  This appears to be
   contributing to modest boundary-layer destabilization (including
   CAPE  up to 500-1000 J/kg), which is expected to continue developing
   northeastward as an initial short wave impulse, which has emerged
   from the Southwest, progresses east-northeast of the central Great
   Plains late this afternoon and evening.  As the associated frontal
   wave migrates into the lower Ohio Valley, there appears a window of
   opportunity for vigorous convective development focused along/just
   ahead of the trailing surface trough across Tennessee into
   Mississippi.  This may coincide with a 40-50 kt southerly 850 mb jet
   axis, along which enlarged low-level hodographs may become support
   of supercells structures accompanied by the risk for damaging wind
   gusts and/or a couple of tornadoes.  With the influence of the
   mid/upper forcing on the warm sector expected to be
   glancing/short-lived, it appears this risk will be maximized this
   evening, but at least some severe weather potential may linger as
   remnant convection spreads eastward/southeastward overnight.

Offline Bruce

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Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
« Reply #3 on: January 25, 2021, 03:06:40 PM »
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
« Reply #4 on: January 25, 2021, 03:15:55 PM »
SVR-warned cell coming into Memphis/Shelby Co area.

Risk of quarter sized hail.

Offline Jeremy

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Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
« Reply #5 on: January 25, 2021, 03:25:08 PM »
This should be fun

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Offline Thundersnow

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Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
« Reply #6 on: January 25, 2021, 03:35:03 PM »
Latest warning text for Desoto/Shelby cell shows half dollar sized hail.

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
« Reply #7 on: January 25, 2021, 03:43:32 PM »
Quote
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Memphis TN
339 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2021

The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Western Fayette County in western Tennessee...
  Southeastern Shelby County in western Tennessee...

* Until 415 PM CST.

* At 339 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located over Southeast
  Memphis, or near Germantown, moving northeast at 55 mph.

  HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail
           damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect
           wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
  Bartlett, Collierville, Germantown, Cordova, Memphis, Lakeland,
  Arlington, Eads, Warren, Macon, Oakland, Piperton, Rossville,
  Moscow, Lenow, Fisherville, Elba, Canadaville, Lambert and Kirk.

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
« Reply #8 on: January 25, 2021, 03:47:59 PM »
A couple of those cells around Memphis look a bit supercellular.

I see maybe some circulation on velocities, but not very tight. I'm assuming this is all fairly elevated.

Offline Icestorm

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Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
« Reply #9 on: January 25, 2021, 03:58:39 PM »
Maybe a supercell will hit Bruce, I wouldn't want him to have to storm chase.

Offline Bruce

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Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
« Reply #10 on: January 25, 2021, 04:10:17 PM »
Maybe a supercell will hit Bruce, I wouldn't want him to have to storm chase.
thanks bud bring it . Hopefully we can all endure some action this spring severe wise...
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline Icestorm

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Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
« Reply #11 on: January 25, 2021, 04:21:30 PM »
If I never see another severe weather event it'll be too soon, a tornado killed my mother in 1974 so I never wish for severe storms for anyone.

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
« Reply #12 on: January 25, 2021, 04:32:52 PM »
thanks bud bring it . Hopefully we can all endure some action this spring severe wise...

Bruce, how clueless are you when you post? Tennessee had 27 tornado fatalities last year. I'm sure hardly anyone wants severe weather.

It's a fact of life, and it's inescapable, but come on, man. I have to think you are just trolling when you post things like that.
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline JayCee

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Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
« Reply #13 on: January 25, 2021, 04:50:18 PM »
Severe risk will be nil in eastern areas.  Forecast high was 62, but the actual afternoon high was 47.  There may be some elevated instability, but storms will quickly weaken as they head east into our much cooler environment. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
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Offline cgauxknox

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Re: 1/25/2021 Severe Risk
« Reply #14 on: January 25, 2021, 04:55:39 PM »
Severe risk will be nil in eastern areas.  Forecast high was 62, but the actual afternoon high was 47.  There may be some elevated instability, but storms will quickly weaken as they head east into our much cooler environment.
I agree there won't be much of a severe threat in East TN but the temps actually seem to be doing what they were forecast to do. I was surprised at temps staying in the 40s this afternoon but when I looked at the hourly forecast we're supposed to warm as the front comes through with our high in the 60s happening at 11:59pm. Who knows if that will verify or not, but it's what's supposed to happen.

 

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