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Author Topic: Long Range Discussion: Spring 2021  (Read 4400 times)

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Offline Crockett

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Re: Spring 2021
« Reply #75 on: February 19, 2021, 01:08:25 PM »
Spring is my least favorite season. I love a warm spring day, but on the whole the season feels like two months of waiting for it to get warm only to have the cold air intrude every time you're ready to trade flannel for short sleeves. That and mud. Lots and lots of mud.

Offline StormNine

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Re: Spring 2021
« Reply #76 on: February 19, 2021, 01:12:19 PM »
I appreciate all 4 seasons although my least favorite of the 4 is Summer but it can be enjoyable as long as it doesn't 95 degrees/dewpoints of 75+ for 4-5 months straight. 

Fall, Winter, and Spring are fairly equal to me assuming that Summer doesn't run into the former.   

With that being said I would not want to live in a place where you didn't get 4 seasons. If we are being honest it is our hot summers and make us long for Fall and Winter.  If it was just 60-70 degrees every day in the Summer then October-November wouldn't be as special. 

Offline wfrogge

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Re: Spring 2021
« Reply #77 on: February 19, 2021, 01:30:45 PM »
Its fantasy range but.... we need to watch this timeframe as several model runs have hinted at potential. 65 dews at the TN boarder with this system would give us some severe in the area
« Last Edit: February 19, 2021, 01:34:16 PM by wfrogge »

Offline Bruce

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Re: Spring 2021
« Reply #78 on: February 19, 2021, 01:40:07 PM »
Its fantasy range but.... we need to watch this timeframe as several model runs have hinted at potential. 65 dews at the TN boarder with this system would give us some severe in the area
yeah noticed on euro today, going up against a strong southeast ridge to boot. interesting to catch  the next frame , this is the period the GFS ensembles been hinting at for while ::coffee::
BRING ON SEVERE WEATHER SEASON..

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Spring 2021
« Reply #79 on: February 19, 2021, 10:08:36 PM »
Spring, fall, winter then summer.  Fav to least fav for me. Summer would be higher up because I love the very long days, but the stagnant heat and humidity disqualifies it. Winter might be higher up, too, if winters had more winter around here.

Agree with everything you wrote. I love spring- in fact, it's my favorite season because I love watching everything bloom, and unlike snow in the winter, you're guaranteed to watch everything come to life in the spring. I like fall and winter about the same, but would probably like them more if they were not as warm as they have been in recent years, as you said. My least favorite season is summer. I like the summertime until July, but after that it starts getting plain nasty down here, and it just won't quit until October or November. August and September are the nastiest months down here. Could also make a case for February being a nasty month when it's 60 degrees and rainy the whole time, as in 2018, 2019 and 2020. That's why I have no clue why so many of you guys want warm winters if it's not going to snow enough for you. It's plenty warm enough here for 8 months out of the year; I don't want to add February to the mild column.
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline dwagner88

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Re: Spring 2021
« Reply #80 on: February 19, 2021, 10:30:47 PM »
I'm very grateful we didn't have a 60 degree February with flooding rains the whole month.
The only significant weather warning that I got out of this entire
Winter 2009-10 Snowfall: 11.5 in. :)
Winter 2010-11 Snowfall: 15.5 in. :)
Winter 2011-12: Trace
Winter 2012-2013: 0.25 in.
Winter 2013-14: 10.6 (9.5 on 2/12)
Winter 2014-2015: 10.25 in.
Winters 2015-2019: basically nothing
Winter 2019-2020:
2/8/20: 4.25

Offline StormNine

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Re: Spring 2021
« Reply #81 on: February 20, 2021, 07:22:32 AM »
What are our thoughts on spring flooding? 

When we talk about an active spring severe weather-wise than we typically also deal with significant flooding/river flooding

1999
2003
2008
2010
2011

These years all come to mind and with the battleground zone likely to set up near our area for at least March into most of April the setup for not only severe weather but heavy rain is likely.

I would say for major river flooding we don't quite have the sustained snowcover in places like St. Louis and points north that we did in years like 2008 and 2011 so that will help somewhat.   

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Spring 2021
« Reply #82 on: February 20, 2021, 08:30:24 AM »
The only significant weather warning that I got out of this entire
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Spring 2021
« Reply #83 on: February 20, 2021, 10:09:06 AM »
I think the general rule of thumb that long range models tend to be too aggressive on a pattern change holds true in a flip to spring just as they do sniffing out a wintry pattern. The
« Last Edit: February 20, 2021, 10:15:11 AM by Thundersnow »

Offline JayCee

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Re: Spring 2021
« Reply #84 on: February 20, 2021, 04:28:29 PM »
I think the general rule of thumb that long range models tend to be too aggressive on a pattern change holds true in a flip to spring just as they do sniffing out a wintry pattern. The
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Spring 2021
« Reply #85 on: February 20, 2021, 04:40:05 PM »
Exactly... considering what Texas just went through, that airmass is bound to have brought SSTs down significantly.

Offline StormNine

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Re: Spring 2021
« Reply #86 on: February 21, 2021, 07:19:34 AM »
The western Gulf has been significantly cooled off by the Arctic outbreak that hit the central U.S. the last two weeks.   While the eastern Gulf is much warmer, I would think it will have an impact on March severe potential, since the western Gulf is now below normal temperature wise.  April and May's severe season could well be a worrisome time for the Southern Plains into the Mid-South.

In the Short-Term probably but if you get a strong Sub-990mb then it can get moisture from the Caribbean Ocean.  After the Ice Storm of 2009 we had a severe weather event a few weeks later where you had a strong low pressure and people boating on the Gulf could actually feel the waves and the warmth from the Caribbean being pulled into the system. 

With that being said we still have a loaded Canada and we may be heading into Phase 8.  Even if that doesn't give us winter weather then repeated cold shots will likely delay severe weather season, but when it gets here then watch out.

We have broad-based troughs, a strong ridge that can pump that Caribbean air, a fading La-Nina, etc. all the things we need for what will probably be an intense but perhaps short-lived severe weather season.  Not quite as long as 2008 or 2011, but it could be as intense as those years.  2006 and 2012 may be similar analogs.   

Offline StormNine

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Spring 2021
« Reply #87 on: February 21, 2021, 07:42:06 AM »
Don't expect this Summer to be very fun at all because our Nina friend picks up strength again in addition to persistent ridging signals around the Desert Southwest and the Bermuda Ridge equal a toasty summer.

Probably will also feature another active hurricane season although with the stronger ridges we may be pushing a lot more storms out to sea or down into Mexico.

All in all from this last round of wintry mayhem, to the up and down and active severe weather of spring, to the likely blazing hot summer expected we will be a very busy weather community. 

Offline schneitzeit

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Spring 2021
« Reply #88 on: February 21, 2021, 09:48:29 AM »
It's time for another 2007, 2012 or 2016-style summer, I guess
Nashville's Big Hits (since '98)

April 16, 1998 Tornado
January 16, 2003 Snowstorm
Summer 2007 Drought
May 1-2, 2010 Great Flood of Nashville
June 2012 Record Heat Wave
February 2015 Tennessee Ice Storm
January 22, 2016 Winter Storm Jonas
March 3, 2020 Tornado

Offline Navywxman

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Re: Long Range Discussion: Spring 2021
« Reply #89 on: February 21, 2021, 10:00:55 AM »
Unfortunately, even in the near-term going into meteorological spring, the signs are there that flooding may become a widespread issue for much of the region due to completely saturated soils.

There is relatively strong agreement that 3-5in of rainfall is likely over the next 2 weeks.

 

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